Comment by jeo123 | Hacker News Reader

Comment by jeo123 | Hacker News Reader

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Evn if they fall to 800mil people, that is still more than 2x more than USA. The level of education in China far exceed USA. Scientific output also exceed USA right now. Then just niched output in AI already surpassed USA just a week ago. You go to any mart in USA, easily 60% stuff come from China. You look in ANY American colleges, you will find "East Asians" a lot even more so in Ivy Leagues. By 2050, we will all acknowledge China is the new USA even if their population drop by half. Look at Japan, their 100m dwindling to 80m still so dominant. You multiply that by 10x and with added ruthlessness in business competition. Hard not to see China gdp NOT exceeding USA in 5-10yrs time. As for economic free fall, USA is due for a super motherload big one. Since it has bigger economy, the fall would be bigger as well. I put my money on China especially now since things it is way cheaper there. Even Tesla look like dwarf when you compare to BYD in China (and they havnt largely tackle market outside China).

> You look in ANY American colleges, you will find "East Asians" a lot even more so in Ivy Leagues

uhh so? X% of those are American of East Asian descent, and, regardless, East Asian != Chinese

Granted, you see plenty of wealthy Chinese at the graduate level at Ivies because they have $$ and want the social currency, but that's not the substance of true educational domination.

I don't necessarily disagree with your overall thesis; I'm not qualified to say one way or the other. Just pointing out this alleged datum doesn't support it.

Also a lot of these Chinese fake their standardized tests (had a friend for whom this was his job in China) to get in and fake the academic work (I went to an ivy, this actually happened, chinese sending other people in for tests…). At least at the high end (second generation wealthy “fuerdai”) it’s a culture of shortcuts where only the outcome is important, not improving as a human.

Coolio, but realistically long term, US will be still top with India next, then EU and then China.

> You look in ANY American colleges, you will find "East Asians" a lot even more so in Ivy Leagues.

Why are they in US instead of China?

This is only true if the EU is not fucked by the gulf stream shutting down.

That was considered a remote possibility a mere decade ago, but nowadays some scientists consider it more likely than not.

Why are they in US instead of China

because the US still has the reputation of better higher education. but also, many of the chinese students will go back to china and bring their experience with them. this will benefit china, but also the experience of living in a foreign country will promote a better understanding between china and the US and create a better future for the world

That’s old data. China’s GDP is larger than that of both the EU and India.

The college numbers have been changing too https://www.axios.com/2023/05/08/chinese-students-us-educati...

>Evn if they fall to 800mil people, that is still more than 2x more than USA

In the time it takes for China's population to fall this low, the US population is expected to grow significantly, assuming the current rate of immigration continues.

>Look at Japan, their 100m dwindling to 80m still so dominant

Innovation and GDP growth has basically completely stopped in Japan due to the burden of the aging population. What's the last piece of innovative software or hardware you used that was made in Japan?

> What's the last piece of innovative software or hardware you used that was made in Japan?

Nintendo is the only company left that knows how to actually make good games, so Japan at least has that going for them.

Population doesn't matter - workforce does.

And by this measure, China's advantage vs the US will shrink even more.

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