I was wondering about this too. https://www.osnews.com/story/24954/us-patent-expiration-for-... seems to think 12/2027.
Would it be surprising if H.264 was replaced by something else by that point? We have multiple subsequent standards, and it seems like everyone producing or providing content would want improved codecs by then.
Isn't AV1 the "preferred" option as a replacement, at least by those who are looking for something high quality and without patents encumbrance?
AV1 (itself derived from the On2 VP8 and VP9 formats) is supposed to be the answer to H.265's patent shenanigans, but support is very slow to manifest. Like, Apple only added it to the iPhone 15 - as in, the one that just came out a month ago. Implementations of AV1 in discrete GPUs similarly only landed last year with Nvidia 40 series, Intel Arc, and Radeon 7000 series cards.
h.265 is very popular in the piracy scene, since you can get a file size about half that needed for equivalent-quality h.264. Of course, being pirates, they don't worry about patents. And since decoders are freely downloadable for players like VLC, there's no good reason not to use it.
NVIDIA has supported AV1 hardware decoding since the 30 series. I believe they were the first to market with it.
It's also noteworthy that of the full list of H.264 patents here:
https://scratchpad.fandom.com/wiki/MPEG_patent_lists
...the majority of them have already expired. IANAL but since the original H.264 spec became public 20 years ago, everything in it should be usable as prior art.
Also, all existing MPEG-4 part 2 (infamous DivX etc.) patents and anything older, e.g. H.263, MPEG-1/2 and H.261, have certainly expired by now.