Hacker News Reader

It depends. Do you expect mortgage rates to go down in 2+ years? Refinancing will lower those rates. Also, if rates do go down, house prices will jump up. How many people are waiting for houses right now? House prices will not stay the same, even if inventory increases, as demand will go up as well.

View on HN

The 30 year mortgage already has future rate expectations priced in. You are not smarter than the bond market. If rates stay higher for longer home prices will stagnate or go down, you can’t predict which will happen.

You think the bond market knows? I don't think they do otherwise rates would not be change dramatically.

My point is that housing prices have historically kept going up. I'm not referring to YoY trends, but median long-term. I think prices will continue to rise over decades, give or take a market correction, because demand is still strong.

cost:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

demand:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HSN1F

Refinancing costs money and resets the clock. Why does no one talk about that? Another poor financial decision that is paraded around like gospel.

The mortgage brokers do talk about it. I've spoken to them. They (the good ones at least) don't hide this information.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com