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Comment by mikestew | Hacker News Reader

Not in Redmond, WA. Haven't read TFA yet (getting to it), but the houses I see for sale are priced as if interest rates are still 2.5%, which is why they're sitting for over a month. Two houses down is for sale, and has been listed for (checks Zillow...) 46 days, and they've cut the price. Since I'm two doors down, I get to observe the dearth of traffic to that house. Zillow says "pending", but we'll see. Unless it's a cash sale, someone still has to get approved for a >$1MM mortgage at 7.5%.

At least in our area, if I had the cash then I'd let houses sit for six more months, let reality hit a few folks in the face, wait for those prices to drop.

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Houses sitting on the market for months and slowly cutting prices is exactly the kind of market you want as a buyer with cash. The prospect of being able to close in days without bank approvals will get you a hefty discount. Sure waiting a bit longer might be a good decision, but now is still a good time.

The prospect of being able to close in days without bank approvals will get you a hefty discount.

Yes, but you're still getting a discount on an inflated price. You'll get that same discount six months from now, only on a much lower price when 8% interest rates start to really cut down on the buyer pool.

From my POV, what you suggest is going to buy a car 12 months ago, convincing the dealer to take off that "market adjustment surcharge, then bragging about how much of a deal you got by only paying MSRP. Versus the person 12 months later that started negotiations at MSRP, and not an artificial price.

(Disclaimer: I'm just a guy on the internet talking out his ass. The number of houses I've purchased can be counted on one hand.)

Who says it is an "inflated" price? Can you be certain housing prices will not be higher than they are today a year from now?

I have lost count of the number of people who were convinced that the housing bubble had peaked in 2018-2019, and were waiting for the crash despite having enough money to buy. None of them can afford to enter the market now.

There was not a major change in interest rates over that period.

> let reality hit a few folks in the face, wait for those prices to drop.

I don't think house prices will drop until there's a pressure on home owners to sell.

The two biggest reasons I can think are:

- People with ARMs unable to make payments - People losing jobs

I remember well that, despite the many foreclosures in 2008, people that had no explicit reason to sell would hold on their homes for years until they were above water again. I distinctly remember houses going on sale, then going off market, over and over again until the owners could walk away at least without a loss.

As long as unemployment is low and not too many people got an ARM, I don't forsee this market undergoing a rapid correction.

I've been actively looking for about 6 months now, we are sell-then-buy approved, watching the inventory decline. I don't want to sell and have no where to go, so I need inventory to be a bit healthier.

The houses that sit are either: extremely expensive, or need updates. Anything of good value is gone in 1-2 days.

Redmond is out of my price range.

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