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Comment by adventured | Hacker News Reader

It's definitely not funny.

Germany's GDP is estimated at $4.4 trillion for 2023.

In 2008, the high before the crash, it was $3.7 trillion. Inflation adjusted that should be $5.4 trillion just to be even with 2008. They have never recovered.

During the good years of the 1990s for the global economy, 1995 was the peak for Germany, and that high was $2.6 trillion. That is $5.3 trillion today. You can pick most years from the 1990s though and it's a bad outcome inflation adjusted to today.

28 years later and the economy needs to increase by 20% just to catch up to where they were in the mid 1990s.

The reason Germany has passed Japan is because they have been suffering from an even worse economic stagnation the past two decades.

How long can Germany pretend things are fine?

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"How long can Germany pretend things are fine? "

We don't. But having the 3. largest economy still kind of negates that point:

"Germany doesn't have the resources to take on anything."

Being 3rd first or 28th gives no information about the possibility to start a space endeavor. You can see Ger. is way behind China and USA, which are in a much better position. I’ve been following very near the development of the 3 german companies trying to do rockets. Let me tell you: I do not think they are going nowhere. They are just doing requirement management in Doors for the last year. Nothing useful is coming out. The SW industry in Germany is really struggling, finding a decent developer is near impossible (ask me how I know!)

"Being 3rd" while only having a fraction of the populace of 1. and 2. still should give some opportunity for ressources. But sure, I am also not really optimistic that anything big is coming out of germanys space adventures anytime soon - but there would be ressources.

The population does not matter for the aerospace industry, you're not making roads or railway tracks, or manufacturing millions of the same thing.

What matters to do anything big, is mainly to have ressources avaiable. Then you can buy things you need and pay people to work on that.

And I think we still have lots of enthusiastic space nerds as well - we just don't have any big company or project to draw them together, like Space-X or NASA did. All of the german/european projects are pretty fragmented.

Even if you put the 3 companies trying to make rockets in Germany you get nothing. Just too few people with enough know how. Not even the whole EU could undertake it. Is not about money only, is Human Resources and know how.

Know how is mostly avaiable and what is not avaiable, could be bought or developed.

What we don't have, is the dedication or the will to focus on space. And granted, there are quite some other problems waiting for solutions.

This would mean it is more efficient in some way. If you insist in looking at positions in some ranking, and are interested in that kind of efficiency, then look at GDP per Capita, Germany is 20.

The best developers in Europe move to the US at the first opportunity.

You have to be really patriotic to not take a 3x raise.

An interesting aspect of European salaries is that the best doesn't get too much more than the median.

This leaves Germany and others with mediocre devs (in general, of course there would be exceptions.)

Yes! Absolutely this is a problem. The 3x factor is very real. Of course you have to still factor in the medical insurance, and evtl. University tuition, if you have kids. But even with that, you are looking at 2x effective.

Most jobs cover full medical insurance.

And smart kids usually get very decent scholarships.

"in general, of course there would be exceptions"

Yeah, those who don't want to leave friends and family behind, just for the money.

Most people wouldn't, for a 30% raise. For a 300% raise though, you have to have really good friends for this to make sense.

And hopefully, your friends feel the same about you.

If it would be 300% raise and everything else equal, then yes. But I for example am not a big car fan. Europe is a bit better in that regard. Also vacation days, criminality, the whole work life balance, how would be the new work position(much more stress and pressure, office politics), child care, schools, etc.

Uprooting ones existence has to be worth it and money can make up for something, but not everything.

I have moved continent. You do not leave friends. If anything, it helps to have even better relations. There is this thing today called internet… family; well that is different. You loose something. But 3x I’m considering it. Is just that moving yet again, after 10 years… is hard.

BTW if you know somebody of those, who can decently code, let me know… because I do not find them!!!

On the other hand, I know some families torn apart over continents. Father in canada, mother in germany. Internet helps only so much for the kids ... in general, relocating with family is a different thing. All of those involved would have to find a new home, friends, etc. that is quite different to moving, when you on your own.

"BTW if you know somebody of those, who can decently code, let me know… because I do not find them!!!"

And depending on what you are looking for and what you can offer, I would be willing to relocate, if the conditions are right. Email is in my profile.

> finding a decent developer is near impossible

Like in a joke about Mongolia, where the population density is so low, some Mongolians never seen another Mongolian.

I'm two years in and yet to see a senior software engineer in real life in Germany.

> I'm two years in and yet to see a senior software engineer in real life in Germany.

Is it because of remote work? What about seeing your University friends (or did you take not a SE or CS related field)?

It's more complicated. Companies have no access to senior software engineers, so companies can't handle complex/large projects, so management doesn't get the experience to derive more value from the engineering work, so the company can't afford senior software engineers (a feedback loop). In this environment junior engineers become senior only by the length of tenure, not by the experience of handling more complexity.

I immigrated to Germany from Israel (and to Israel from Ukraine), so my University friends are all over the world, but not in Germany.

Are you missing the obvious reason most people from Israel would not move to Germany?

Germany is spending lots of money on ESA and thus Arianespace. Of course they wont do that and ALSO give plenty of funding to startups.

Germany on its own very much could develop its own rocket, the question if just if this is a priority or not. And it isn't.

> Nothing useful is coming out.

They are doing engine test and structural test. Same as pretty much most second generation rocket startups.

And of course they are going 'nowhere' but that has nothing to do with Germany and everything to do with the economics of launch. There is a reason Virgin Orbit went bust. Astra is about to be bust. And a few others will follow soon enough.

To be fair, most of Europe has economically stagnated post 2008. Only Eastern Europe grew because they were far behind.

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