Fewer Californians are moving to Texas, but more are going to FL and AZ
pressdemocrat.com
pressdemocrat.com
If I were single and in my 20s, SF would be where I go for all the bright minds. But the calculus as a 30s yo with a family is that California overplayed its hand. We left and aren't coming back unless a lot changes.
All of this applies to Arizona, Texas, and Florida. Arizona in particular has had the highest increase in housing cost since the pandemic started of out of any state.
If you can't afford a million dollar home you're gonna have a much harder time in urban or suburban coastal CA than you will in... almost anywhere else, including AZ, TX, FL.
The rest of the parent poster's complaints are pretty SF-centric, though.
Also I'm talking about my perspective living in the Bay in general.
LA is less bad.
There are many many places that are nice to live in California - and I almost don’t want to tell anyone about my town (Aptos) because I don’t want it overrun. :)
> If I were single and in my 20s, SF would be where I go
You're conflating SF and Bay Area. SF is not the Bay Area. SF isn't even in Silicon Valley, technically. The issues with SF are not the issues in SV/BA.
> California is very expensive for what you get
California is crazy expensive. Often I look for alternatives. What would be a good alternative?
I want to be near the ocean. I don't want to freeze in the winter and don't want 100F with 90% humidity in the summer.
Just with that criteria I ruled out most of the country.
But then add the requirement of having good jobs. So what's left?
So, here I remain in California.
You are basically defining your requirements in a way that can only be met California. If California didn't exist, would you jump in the ocean? What I mean is that perhaps one of your requirements could be relaxed so you can get many other benefits. For instance, the "100F with 90%" humidity is greatly mitigated by Air Conditioning or going out very early in the day. When I spent some time in Louisiana, which is crazy hot and humid, I was able to mitigate the heat in the way I describe to the point that it didn't affect my life.
I remember reading that there were quite a few elderly Texans moving to California for a reason that you probably would not expect: taxes.
Texas does not have a state income tax. They make up for that with high sales tax and high property tax.
California does have a state income tax. It also has a high sales tax, which is about the same average rate as Texas (the state rate is lower in Texas but local rates are high so it comes out about the same). Property taxes are lower in California. It is #16 among states when sorted from low to high property taxes. Texas is #45. Rates are about 2.4x as high in Texas.
Thus if you are a retired homeowner in Texas considering moving to California it comes down to whether the lower property taxes will outweigh state income tax.
California state tax does not apply to Social Security, so if your income is mostly that and low tax investments (like a Roth IRA) it can quite easily turn out that you won't pay much if any California income tax.
I'm wondering if they're downsizing given median home cost in Texas is about $300k versus $750k in California, from a quick search. It's nice to have the extra money go to equity instead of taxes, I'm sure, but I'm not sure how moving to California without the bump in income would make sense from a pure cost of living perspective.
Maybe if they're coming from Austin and moving to somewhere cheaper in California they'd find apples for apples. Austin's always been a little expensive but never anything near where it's gotten the past few years.
Another few interesting facts about Texas property taxes:
- Your primary residence gets a "homestead exemption" that lowers the overall rate and also caps any tax increases to 10% a year.
- If over 65, you can defer paying property taxes indefinitely for a 5% yearly interest rate as long as you don't move. You still owe the taxes, but they'll be taken out of your estate.
I like the 10% cap as it makes costs way more predictable, while still not having the weird effects that a permanent capped tax does where people are still paying tax rates based on a home value from the 1980s.
They are probably downsizing a bit. A little random checking on for sales houses on Redfin gives me the impression that someone with maybe a 2300 sq ft house in San Antonio could get maybe a 1500-1700 sq ft house for about the same price in the the central valley in California (e.g., in Modesto, Merced, or Fresno).
My guess is that it is mostly people who are not living in major cities in Texas moving to not major cities in California.
> If over 65, you can defer paying property taxes indefinitely for a 5% yearly interest rate as long as you don't move. You still owe the taxes, but they'll be taken out of your estate.
"Taken out of your estate" suggests they take the taxes when you die. If you move before you die to you have to pay when you move, or does it still come out of your estate when you eventually die?
I could see someone wanting to move for the difference in climate alone, honestly. There are a lot of people on Texas subreddits talking about moving after the recent heatwave. It was the most brutal one I've ever been in, having lived here off and on for a few decades. Having said that, it was interesting learning how adaptable the human body is after mentioning how "nice out" it felt once the high temperature started dropping below 100F consistently!
I'm not well-read on it, but I believe the taxes are due if you sell the property. It seems intended to allow people who want to live in their home forever to stay there if they have cash flow issues in retirement. In the event other assets couldn't cover the amount due, the state would get back the tax money from the heirs, if they wanted to keep the home, or sale of the house eventually.
[0] From the Census department source data: state-to-state migration figures: https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/demo/tables/geograp...
And it also works in reverse, but since every other state is much smaller, no stories are written. Both of my neighbors have recently left Texas to relocate to the Bay Area.
California has lost people to net domestic migration for a few decades (with lower income workers and retirees flowing out and, on average, higher wage workers flowing in at slightly lower rates from other states), IIRC, but until recently it was making up for it between natural growth and international in-migration [0] (the latter also often of higher wage workers); international migration tailed off just before (and even more with) the pandemic, which shifted things to a net loss of population.
[0] Carefully not saying "immigration" because a H-1B admissions, an important part of this, aren't immigrants, even though they may later become immigrants. But its still in-migration of population, regardless of status.
From Palo Alto to Austin: $4,837
From Austin to Palo Alto: $2,459
Try it yourself: https://www.uhaul.com/Truck-Rentals/
The data is available for anyone to download, and it has margins of error itemized for every number they provide [0]. The margin of error is around 10k for this number (CA->TX) and the observed difference is 5k, which means that the entire article is just interpreting statistical noise.
The reported variation in AZ's inflows are also within the margin of error. The only number in the headline that isn't is FL, with a difference of 13k and a MOE of 7K.
[0] https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geograph...
A responsible headline would be "More Californians moving to Florida", without mentioning the "changes" in California-to-Texas/Arizona flows, which from the data cannot reliably be said to have occurred.
If we talk about picking a place to live, why not choose something that is not completely FUBAR that you don't actually have to worry about such things? That isn't a mark of high quality life.
Where do you live, Alaska?
People like to claim that Europe missed on tech because of regulations but there’s no EU regulations in TX or FL or AZ or anywhere outside of Europe and yet no successful replications so far. Many places are actively trying to replicate it, Silicon Valley of this Silicon Valley of that and no one ever came close.
It would be very interesting if AZ, for example, becomes the next SV so we can study it.
On the other hand, China and India seem to have their moments in hardware or niches or Scandinavian countries in EU are seeing some success too.
Anyway, it’s curious to see the effect of people moving around.
My partner and I bring in around $350k and it’s barely cutting it here