Texas employment tops 14M as state job growth tops U.S.
expressnews.com
expressnews.com
For the San Antonio area, 46% of households — more than 240,000 households — can't afford the essentials such as housing, child care, food, transportation, health care and a basic smartphone plan.
This data from ALICE, which stands for Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed. It's a stubborn number that hasn't budged in over a decade. About half the city really struggles to make ends meet.
It seems better to bring up the state as a whole. 12.2% of Californians are living in poverty and 14% of Texans are.
If a few cities are having issues it seems like there are issues in those cities, not necessarily the state. That is not to say the state can't do anything to help, but if other cities are not experiencing those same issues then it seems like it is a different issue going on.
Texas does have higher poverty as a whole than California so there is a possibility that Texas is doing something wrong. All I am saying is selectively choosing a city to prove a point doesn't actually prove the point about the whole state.
In a large enough geography there can of course be both dynamics at play.
If a place's population increased and the impoverished population shot up, then, at first, it would give me pause that perhaps people were getting stuck there. It wouldn't be the first time that brain drain happened in advance of urban retooling and job loss. Witness the great brain drain from the rural US into inner city manufacturing neighborhoods while factory jobs were already beginning to leave those city centers. The successful cities of England's North endured something similar at the same postwar moment in their much longer history.
That Texas keeps showing this behavior of parallel growth in popularity and poverty for decades on end, though, makes much more explanatory the latter idea -- that e.g. metropolitan San Antonio is popular and a ladder for the underdogs of both the American economy and several Central American ones. California had a very similar and bipartisan growth dynamic in the 1910s-1980s before some Californians started pulling up the ladder behind them. Would be interesting to see a trajectory of housing costs near job growth in that state over time and whether land offers Texas any real buffer against such a trajectory.
If you go by the federal poverty rate, the rate is 14%, which is about average for the US.
I'm not saying it wouldn't be hard raising a family on $68K here. I think it would be challenging, especially factoring in childcare, but the ALICE budget gives you $819/month for transportation. This seems excessive given you can get a $10k used car for about $228/month (I think). The pickings aren't amazing at that level, but I regularly drive a car that would currently be valued around $6-8k. It's safe and reliable. I haven't broken down other parts of the budget.
Statewide, the percent above ALICE threshold matches exactly that of California, at 57%, although there are slightly more in poverty (lower threshold than ALICE) in Texas: https://www.unitedforalice.org/national-overview
Is there data on what % of those are single earner households?
Does the $228/month number include maintenance + fuel or is it just financing/depreciation?
The main point I wanted to bring up with my comment was that San Antonio is just about average nationally wealth-wise, but the original comment I was replying to made it seem like half the population was living in very dire straits.
One of the things I worried about when I moved out of Texas was leaving such a strong and diversified economy… but after Covid and the normalization of remote work, this is thankfully less of an issue now. I hope remote work is here to stay. It helps prevent the centralization of labor around existing cities and lets the wealth of society spread more uniformly throughout the country.
just the political atmosphere? or something more specific?
also what part of texas, one of the big cities? a suburban city? rural?
Right after we moved out, Oregon passed laws decriminalizing hard drugs and removed graduation requirements (and they are considering continuing waiving graduation requirements I hear). The Oregon teacher's association (and gov in general) got a sweet retirement deal in the 90's, that they "realized" that deal is draining the state of money it needs. The teachers association is trying to teach fewer hours each day (for the kids) and have more half days (once a week) for teacher prep (for the kids). One of my kids was directly saying teachers would talk up direct action activism the the like in class. Then the new curriculum came out that had sex ed starting in Kindergarten and had massive ideological components to them. This was in 2020 and it has continued unabated from there. These were state level activities; districts can't meaningfully push back; teachers could be fired for not adhering to them. I have family who are teachers so I don't speak from ignorance here.
Texas ISDs (independent school districts) also get funding from the state, but they get much more funding locally. Practically speaking, Texas ISDs vary much more. So do your research. Then support what is good and seek to improve to make it even better.
Hell, Texas and Oregon are basically the same state once you leave the big cities. Oregon has more trees and mountains though!
I will point out that Texas has one of the country's HIGHEST unemployment rates:
https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm
Only 5 states have higher unemployment.
It's 2023, I don't think COVID is relevant to any business decision anymore.
If we are going to make up hypotheses on what drives employers to relocate to Texas, I will submit the idea that Texas' poor workers' rights are attractive to business owners: https://www.keranews.org/news/2022-09-13/texas-is-one-of-the...
I find that hard to believe.
You'd have to dig into the state by state presentations on unemployment to get a proper picture and comparison. It's quite a time consuming task.
I don’t mean it’ll become Detroit —a one trick pony, and collapse but it could mimic 1980s NYC when biz moved across the river.
Dallas and Houston have higher total violent crime rates than Los Angeles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_b...
Speaking of regulation, could it be that businesses prefer Texas due to poor workers' rights? https://www.keranews.org/news/2022-09-13/texas-is-one-of-the...
I'm also unsure what California business climate is stifling businesses there, considering it is the #1 GDP economy in the country, 5th highest state in GDP per capita, and only 5 or 6 entire countries in the world have larger economies. Is there a specific regulation that is stopping your business idea from working in California?
What, specifically, is bad about the business climate in California? And I'm talking about things that can't be easily refuted with basic facts.
A lot of the downsides that people like to complain about California like regulatory burden, bureaucracy, and high taxes are mostly true, but until housing cost skyrocketed in the last decade none of that mattered to most people. The vast majority of California’s problems stem from unbalanced supply and demand across a number of goods and services.
Ever since the budgetary woes of the 2000s, the state government has really turned it around and with all the laws tackling the housing problem passed in the last few years, California is going to keep on trucking just like haters gonna keep on hating (which they should, we’re overpopulated enough as it is).
California is just a political target by a certain party that fumbled their previous dominance of elections in the state and remains butthurt about it, and they can make the entire state into a scapegoat because they know they’ll never control the state again anyway. https://www.ocregister.com/2019/12/02/the-decline-and-fall-o...
California is the state of Schwarzenegger, Regan, and proposition 8. Like every other state, it's an archipelago of blue cities in a sea of red. Democrats are in power today; do not mistake that for forever. I don't think Republican party's current strategy of badmouthing California at every turn is going to earn them votes needed to flip the state; but their strategy in the US House of Representatives is an even more spectacular failure. Rather, the party's lack of coherent strategy seems to be the source of its manifold failures today. I do wonder what a post-Trump Republican party will look like, but it will come, and I wouldn't presume to predict its future.
Trump improved among Hispanic voters by roughly 10 points between 2016 and 2020 [0] - and in some areas his improvement was a lot bigger than that - e.g. some heavily Hispanic border regions of Texas saw Trump improve his vote by over 20 points
(Of course, much of the increase of support among Texan Hispanics is strictly speaking not immigrants, rather people who have lived in the area since back when it was still part of Mexico-but I’m not sure if that’s a significant factor or just a quibble.)
Similarly, there is evidence that the GOP may have significantly improved their share of the Muslim vote over the last few years [2]
[0] https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/30/new-trump-poll-wome...
[1] https://www.texasmonthly.com/news-politics/democrats-losing-...
[2] https://www.newsweek.com/2023/10/20/culture-wars-are-giving-...
Other notable examples: Oracle moved their HQ to Austin; HPE moved theirs to the Houston metro area
Speculating on effectiveness of the DA and how much crime goes unreported would have to benchmark other cities to be meaningful. We can’t just assume that crime is more frequently reported and prosecuted elsewhere based on a joke headline.
Ironically, SF’s property crime problem is likely heavily impacted by the high demand to live there in the first place and the resulting high cost of housing. SF can alleviate crime by building housing, but I’m not sure how Peoria, IL, Steubenville, OH, or Bridgeport, CT solve their crime and drug issues long term. At least SF has a clear path out.
The law only works as a deterrence for crime when there is a reasonably high chance of being caught, and the consequences work as a significant deterrent. To their credit the San Francisco Police Department have a pretty nice page on this exact issue here. [1] Not so much to their credit, the clearance rate (cases solved) for theft is at 3.4%. Then those get sent over to the DA who may or may not even choose to prosecute it. There's also things like community courts [2] that can help ensure you get the most gentle slap on the wrist if caught.
Pair these systems alongside the surplus of high value targets, and it just seems like you're creating an extremely enticing area for thieves. I also imagine this all has to be extremely demoralizing for police, which one could expect would lead to something of a downward spiral. It's just generally not a great situation.
[1] - https://www.sanfranciscopolice.org/stay-safe/crime-data/clea...
[2] - https://www.sfdistrictattorney.org/policy/restorative-justic...
So I think it’s pretty common for property crime to have a low clearance rate especially in larger municipalities.
I think you’re also downplaying the fairness of misdemeanors for property crime under $950. Why should stealing a candy bar or a DVD be a felony? Do you realize how life-ending a felony conviction can be? You basically can’t get a decent quality job ever again, which isn’t going to lower the property crime rate by making desperate people more desperate.
And also, misdemeanors can be upgraded to felonies via repeat offenses and surrounding circumstances (e.g., armed robbery is always felony).
Here’s an example of the San Francisco DA seeking life sentences for violent robberies: https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/sf-mission-distric...
I think San Francisco has a perception of being a liberal haven for criminals with lax enforcement, but the more likely reality is that it operates similarly to most other large cities. The DA isn’t twiddling their thumbs and allowing violent robbers to get off with misdemeanors. That perception of San Francisco law enforcement is pushed by political opponents.
You're talking about a city with the 2nd highest theft rate, the overall 4th highest property crime rate, and comparing it against cities that not only have much lower crime rates, but ones where the clearance rate is at least twice as high for the crimes that are committed. Then there are other probable issues, but ones seemingly neither of us has been able to dig up data on, like prosecution rates vs dismissal/reclassification. To claim these differences amount to nothing, or only exist due to bias in others, is just not really reasonable.
You can accept San Francisco having a high crime rate, but think that the other niceties you enjoy about the city more than compensate for it. Every city, every state, every country has its own set of pros and cons. It's only balance that the 'big picture' really comes out, and that's also going to be extremely subjective.
Point is NextDoor can provide some insight into crime as often what is mentioned in that medium is unreported to authorities though often you will have members recommend the victim report the crime to police.
> All U.S. employers must properly complete Form I-9 for every individual they hire for employment in the United States
Although that requirement probably doesn’t apply to contractors.
Edit: Major pitfall (or advantage depending on your perspective) of the I-9 system is that it only requires employers to fill out the form and “keep it on file” in case the government asks to see it.
E-verify introduces the ability to share and verify that information digitally with the government (where without e-verify the form would just sit in someone’s filing cabinet or Google drive).
Inspecting the original document should be a high enough bar for verification (assuming the employer isn’t knowingly trying to subvert the system). E-verify exists to provide an alternative to inspecting the physical document.
But in reality I’m guessing most small employers take shortcuts and don’t inspect the documents as they should or don’t keep records of I-9 at all (the form is very rarely needed for anything)
But yes, someone could forge a SS card and a photo ID. It would be up to the employer to decide whether anything looks suspicious.
Definitely not foolproof.
It would be a huge burden to ask the employer to verify these documents.
I have worked in and with several businesses that knowingly turn a blind eye to the fake documents they photocopy/scan and file. The system is working as designed, propping up the businesses profiting from illegal labor.
Those who claim to be upset about illegal immigration don't want E-Verify mandates. They want a permanent underpaid underclass.
Politicians do not want to anger the criminal businesses profiting from illegal labor.