Tesla announces Cybertruck deliveries in November, with 125k production capacity | Hacker News Reader

Tesla announces Cybertruck deliveries in November, with 125k production capacity

electrek.co

34 pointsTheAlchemist62 comments

November is in half a month, and they haven't even announced the price yet! Let alone features of the final production model (which differs significantly from what was shown on stage, but even that was vague in a number of areas).

While I'd normally assume this is just review samples, 125K is far too many for that.

(I'm not a fanboy)

This just shows the massive value of Tesla as a brand. The price doesn't even matter, the product just sells.

To be fair, most of the orders were with the prices from the announcement. It is just that noone expects those to be the actual final price after these past few years.

Which is crazy, considering that 3 and Y are pretty close to their prices from back then.

They have a strong brand, but the fact that they are dropping prices and needing to do marketing where they haven't before suggests that perhaps the shine is wearing off, maybe they've saturated the market of people interested in the brand (and wealthy enough to afford the cars).

The truck will be a new market, particularly in the US where trucks are so prevalent. This may be where their growth comes from – trucks rather than the Tesla brand. However they may be limiting themselves with such an... eccentric? approach and design.

I traded a Toyota full size pickup truck in for my first Tesla, a Model S, because Tesla needed to move units to survive. I'm looking forward to closing the loop, trading that Model S (with almost 110k miles on it after driving cross country in six years) in for my Cybertruck. It's ugly, I love it, I don't care what it costs.

The most popular vehicle in the US? The F150 [1]. You must dive into this market segment head on, as this vehicle population is responsible for substantial US mobility emissions [2]. Sell to younger people who want trucks, but want an electric truck. Same reason Harley Davidson spun their Livewire bike out to its own brand [3]: old people riding Harley's didn't want it, and that persona is dying out. So you have to create a new brand to cater to the persona you're targeting [4] [5].

[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/02/ford-pickup-remains-americas...

[2] https://record.umich.edu/articles/study-compares-greenhouse-...

[3] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/27/harley-davidson-spins-off-li...

[4] https://medium.com/startup-grind/people-dont-buy-products-th...

[5] https://www.useronboard.com/features-vs-benefits/

>So you have to create a new brand to cater to the persona you're targeting [4] [5].

Toyota tried to do that with Scion, it turned out to be a bad business move.

Toyota had a brand-relationship with the idea of quality and value, whereas most people related Scion to the Korean groups Kia and Hyundai, which at the time only had very low-quality offerings in the United States.

People didn't realize they were just rebranded Toyota. The resale suffered greatly compared to the mother company and after the gimmick of pseudo-Kei cars floundered in the west entirely they decided to just re-merge all of the vehicles back under the Toyota marque.

My point being : certain sacrifices are made when a "hep to younger generations' rebrand occurs. For Toyota it was their brand awareness w.r.t. quality and value, and Scion couldn't hold its' own weight with just gimmicky offerings.

Toyota is good at making incredibly reliable fuel efficient cars, but not much else. I say this as someone who was very loyal to the brand (have owned ~5 Toyotas and Lexus' in aggregate) until an EV competitor came along who demonstrated commitment to delivering on EVs.

> The truck will be a new market, particularly in the US where trucks are so prevalent.

I have my doubts about how successful electric trucks are going to be in the short term. The US is in the grips of an intense culture war and eco-anything is part of it. Hell, there are truck owners here that deliberately make their trucks less environmentally friendly just to "own the libs".

Truck enthusiasts despise electric vehicles and environmentalists recognize that no amount of marketing will make an 8,000 pound truck "green".

You don't need to be an enthusiast to buy a truck; it's a nice-to-have even if you just do the occasional home improvement project (yeah you could rent one as needed, but it's easier just to use your own a lot of the time). I really like Ford's Maverick, and if someone made an electric like that for a reasonable price, I'd pick one up.

The cybertruck aesthetic is way too "look at me" for me to actually want one, but I'll enjoy seeing them driving around. I have a colleague who seems somewhat serious about getting one, and I'll be happy to ride in it at least.

I agree on the idea of an electric Maverick. One of the problems I have with the CT is size. Not only is it an opionated design with lots of usability compromises, but it's enormous. It's more or less the size of my F250, which I never drive unless I'm pulling my trailer. Because it's huge!

> You don't need to be an enthusiast to buy a truck; it's a nice-to-have even if you just do the occasional home improvement project (yeah you could rent one as needed, but it's easier just to use your own a lot of the time).

The rest of the world would disagree on this. Many countries have the same necessities as the US, and yet trucks are an almost uniquely American concept (same may be true of Canada, I'm not familiar enough). To put it another way, I think the American baseline for "enthusiast" is far higher than elsewhere.

I think it's a combination of: living far apart, multi-car households, high availability of car financing and the deep cultural desire for self-sufficiency. Most countries differ on one or more of these, and there may be other factors here.

They increased prices when production was low and then covid hit, and later supply chain cost inflation.

The biggest driver behind price decreases this year has to be the super high interest rates on car loans, making financing expensive for consumers. Given that, 17.8% margins isn't too bad.

> suggests that perhaps the shine is wearing off, maybe they've saturated the market of people interested in the brand

I think it is that they've saturated the market. Y is literally on the brink of being the highest selling vehicle in the world and has a good chance of ending the year as the highest selling car in the US.

They are squeezing ~1.7M units out of two models. It isn't hard to see why they've had to be aggressive on pricing to hit such crazy volume targets. For comparison, BMW does ~2.5M (including Mini) with well over 12 models.

CT is going to be an interesting case. On the one hand, I think it is a fad product. I can't see a design like that holding a sustainable and large place in the market.

OTOH, it is one of the few products that can avoid the "invisible car" effect. I routinely run into people who "never see electric cars". The CT is impossible to miss.

Within 12 months of it being on the market, people will think it dominates the market for electric trucks, even if that isn't true.

If Tesla didn’t exist, the largest EV brand would be in China. If SpaceX didn’t exist, China would be dominating space flights as well.

Unfortunately, Tesla exists.

That tracks. China's been consistently second-place to the US for a long time now, in a lot of different areas.

The only way to get to the ISS would be through Russia, and given the Ukraine war the ISS may have been decommissioned by now without SpaceX.

> While I'd normally assume this is just review samples, 125K is far too many for that.

The 125k is the capacity of the line. The industry always exaggerates these figures and Tesla is no different. For example, I've heard estimates that NUMMI had a capacity of >650k units. Under Toyota/GM it never did more than ~450k.

Initial deliveries will be very slow. Though by January, they will likely be producing them much more quickly than Ford was producing Lightnings in Q3. :rofl

Line capacity is always based on perfect attendance, perfect supply, and the build vehicles never changing. So they could hit 125k if every single one was identical and nothing went wrong.

Maybe.

November 30th is a bit more than six weeks away. 125k is their annual production capacity, at present.

The launch event is Nov 30th. So, they've got 6 weeks to show some numbers, final features, etc.

They didn't say which November, now did they?

Shareholder deck is a better source than a 3rd party blog:

https://ir.tesla.com/#quarterly-disclosure

username checks out.

125k is the capacity over a total year right now, not how much they're delivering in November. Just to clarify.

Yeah, title is crap. Big difference between 125k per year and per 10 years

A lot of hats are going to be eaten if they actually manage this. There are a plenty of people online still convinced that the Cybertruck is vaporware that will never see the street or will only be produced in Electric Hummer numbers.

Anecdote: I saw a Cybertruck driving on a highway in SF last week. Didn't get a great look but it was definitely real!

I'm not a hater but I think it will bomb in most markets. IRL pics circulating, if real, don't look as sexy as the prototypes. And it's too radical in look. My two cents.

Pics I've seen actually had duct tape. Not surprised considering it is consistent with prior reports on Tesla quality.

This is an old myth by now

Just to check who is right, I did a simple search and found this:

https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/1635zrm/c...

Looks like tape to me. How is it a myth?

To be fair, that image appears to be vehicles being transported after some sort of test.

Notice how dirty they all are, and how scuffed up some panels are. The tape appears to be in the exact same places for all of them, which might indicate some sort of video test (slow motion or similar).

I highly doubt real vehicles will be shipped to customers with tape on the exterior...

Well, I'm in that camp.

I've come to believe in the past 3 years that Tesla become a kind of investor fraud - promising impossible things and not delivering them, but getting the benefit of doubt since they did achieve incredible things in the early years.

I don't doubt that Cybertruck will see the streets - the same way Tesla Semi. Which one year after the official deliveries, is still an absolute mystery - no information whatsoever about it's real range, weight nor price. Kind of strange to me for a product that was supposedly released 11 months ago !

I've just checked the Cybertruck order page on https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck - still no price, still advertising that it's built with 'a nearly impenetrable exoskeleton' - which I believe the Release Candidates seen on the streets are not...

I'm not sure what you mean "no information whatsoever about it's real world range, weight nor price"

https://results-2023.runonless.com/truck/?day=1&depot=pepsic...

The Semi specs list "Fully Loaded at 82k lbs Gross Combination Weight" for their stats, maybe you're looking for something else?

Apparently price was/is listed somewhere, or maybe you have to deal with Tesla directly, because they are currently focused on fleets, and don't have to still set-up the increased charging infrastructure (?) https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/tesla-semi-prices-rele...

I've seen the links you listed - the range in this tests is given without the cargo weight - it's totally meaningless for a truck. For all we know, the truck could be almost empty, or almost fully loaded with extra batteries. We just don't know.

Don't you think that it should be easy to find the 'price was listed somewhere' ? We are talking about a product that was supposedly released 1 year ago. Where are independent reviews of it ? There are none.

That's odd. Previously Pepsico reported they were only getting decent range when hauling potato chips, i.e. air, and were limited to 100-odd miles delivering beverages (obviously going empty about half the way too).

I'm sure they'll eventually produce the thing, but 1) will it actually be worth a damn? (radical new designs tend to have radical new problems) 2) will it sell in the numbers predicted? (focus groups loved the Pontiac Aztec, and I'd bet the majority of people who put down a whopping $100 for a preorder don't actually end up buying a truck)

I mean, it can’t be real. Just look at it. It has to be some elaborate prank and the real one will be unveiled and look normal. Like all the panels will pop off and you’ll have a sleek looking thing underneath.

In all seriousness, if it looked anything like a Rivian I may have had one at some point, but I could never see myself in a cybertruck.

> if it looked anything like a Rivian

Something along the lines of the R1T is what I had hoped Tesla was going to unveil. I was struck dumb by the CT when it rolled onto the stage, and instantly hated it. But I use my trucks as trucks, not as a lifestyle vehicle.

And I'll eat my hat if a $39K CT is an option at all. Or the $49K option, for that matter. Either at all or meaningfully available.

We all know the first model will be the most expensive model with “promises” that the 40k model will be available in the future. See 35k Model 3 for reference on how that turned out.

I asked a supplier who supplies Tesla and SpaceX. They said that there's no way this thing is coming in at under 100k.

Cybertruck being vaporware is a basically fact at this point. They're releasing a car that looks alike, but it's nothing like what was initially advertised.

It's not an exoskeleton, bullet proof, easy to manufacture car with 500 miles of range and $40k price tag.

It will have the same name but be completely different under the stainless steel than what was promised 4 years ago.

I'd easily make the bet that the Cybertruck will be a giant, enormous flop. Sure, there will be plenty of early demand from the "I have the first one on my block" crowd, but I've heard numerous, numerous reviews about how the design, from the flat metal panels to the visibility, is a practical disaster.

I am genuinely open to "convince me otherwise" opinions. E.g. if there was a buyer looking at, say, a Rivian or F150 Lightning, is there anything beyond just the pure novelty that would tip them to the Cybertruck? I just haven't found basically any reviews that don't think there are numerous problems with the design.

A lot of people used to rave about the look and design of Tesla vehicles.

That seemed to stop once the Cybertruck was unveiled.

I think a lot of people thought it was a joke, and then slowly people realized Tesla was serious about making a vehicle that looks like some graphics from the 1990s that never finished rendering.

The CT will likely be a bit cheaper than the Rivian or Lightning. Beyond that, probably the same reasons why more people buy Model Ys instead of Mach-Es.

I saw one on my street the other night and let out a shriek. My wife was most displeased, as based on my "excitement" she was expecting a small child or baby to be in immediate danger, crawling in the road or something. This incident certainly didn't help my already tumultuous personal life.

The cybertruck is probably the ugliest and most awkward looking vehicle I've ever seen in real life, including experimental auto expo PoCs.

At least it should be entertaining to see what happens next (with this and my marriage *cry*).

It is, and unfortunately it’s well-designed. Which means it will likely go from ugly to most people thinking it’s fine.

I can kind of understand people liking the aesthetic based on the renderings - especially for people who like vulgar, brash things.

But the real-life sighting videos I have seen of the thing... well, it just looks awful. Like awkward and ungainly and unfinished. Not brash or bold in any way.

With great lighting/rendering you can make anything look good, problem is in real life you hardly ever look at your best.

I'm somewhere on the waitlist but I'm going to lease mine in case this turns out to be the Plymouth Prowler of electrics

For a while, though, I'm sure I will enjoy the 80's retrofuturistic postapocalyptic vibe

Ya, and if it turns out to be good you can always buy out the lease right?

Maybe… Tesla doesn’t allow lease buyouts on some models. At least that is the case for my Y.

Tesla is one of the few companies that does not allow lease buyouts.

I had a pre order but I asked for a refund once I started seeing the pre-production pictures that have been floating around recently. The real thing doesn't seem to look as neat as the original pictures/demo to me? I'm not sure what changed exactly, but I went from mild hype to not picturing myself actually owning it. It looks a lot 'fatter' than I thought it would, lol

https://driveteslacanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/cyber...

Depending on what photos you see they look similar IMO. The mandatory side mirrors are different and having a wiper blade changes the front look. I couldn't say for sure but maybe some of the angles are less drastic on the production model resulting in a less neat look? It does look like a chonk out in public though, something you don't really see when it's on stage or on their reporter track.

Looks similar to me if not better.

I like the “chonkiness” factor.

Looking forward to the detachable sideview mirrors since I’d prefer cameras and more horizontal room inside.

Even if they have capacity, the probably do not want to ship out that many the first year. There will be a lot of kinks to work out - there were a lot of kinks to work out for previous models that were not so divergent. So cranking them out in huge quantities for the first year or two is asking to have your shirt handed to you on warranty work.

For comparison, Rivian has delivered about 40k and Ford has maybe shipped 13k F150 Lightnings?

Does anyone have data on the total market for trucks outside of North America? This thing will not be selling anywhere else in large quantities.

There was a YouTube video of a trucker making fun of this monstrosity and explaining how, as a driver, this truck was a death trap. 100% this was designed by some Jimmy Ivine impersonator and no feedback from actual truck drivers went into it. How do you design a truck with minimal room for a bed and other amenities.

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