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> The idea that Russia or China would magically become democratic utopias without violent social upheaval is extraordinarily naive.

It happened to South Korea and Taiwan. And almost happened to Russia. I really don't think it's naive, even if it's wrong.

Everything seems obvious in hindsight.

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The end of WWII led to Germany, Japan and Italy becoming (or returning to) democracies. As well as your later examples of South Korea and Taiwan, it's understandable that it seemed like the end of the cold war could also lead to some similar results. Maybe by 97 that optimism had faded, but for a while Russia looked like it was heading towards democracy.

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