Apparently, it was due to a misfired rocket from Islamic Jihad aimed at Israel.
Apparently:
- there are several plumes of smoke from previous explosions/bombings in that general direction of the hopsital (about 3 that I can count)
- failed rocket seems to be exploding in the sky (maybe engine? maybe both engine and warhead? that's not apparent)
- there's also another explosion a second before the direct hit
- the video is shot in the direction of that hospital (based on el wafa medical building in lower left)
So, yeah. That much is apparent.
Where you "apparently" see Islamic Jihad in the video is really not clear to me.
"You use apparently to indicate that the information you are giving is something that you have heard, but you are not certain that it is true." [1]
https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/apparen...
In 2006, Hamas was fielding kit that could loft 17 kg of explosives [1]. Given the rocket is 66kg, that's a 25% payload fraction implying at least another 33kg of fuel at launch.
Solid fuel should deflagrate. But it looks like they historically used a sugar/KNO3 premix [2]. I think that could detonate when strapped to an explosive while encountering terrain. Add to that pressurized systems commonly found in a hospital, e.g. oxygen, and the deadliness of a collapsing building, and I can see their circa 2006 kit doing the job.
(Note: this is a back-of-the-envelope plausibility check only.)
Sure. But those are precision munitions. I don't think there's an Occam's razor solution through this bit of the fog of war. (Yes, I know I'm deflecting from the horrors on the ground by thinking about the rocket mechanics. I'm going to try to observe my plane crash rule of ignoring attribution hypotheses for at least one week after.)
Speaking of fog of war, the IAF could easily release logs of sorties flown, ammo taken, ammo used, and where it was used. They could do that right now. They have not. Makes you think.
It's an active war zone. There are good tactical reasons for not immediately disclosing this. (You also want to make damn sure that you didn't have a trigger-happy racist go off piste.) Conducting that audit credibly takes time.
Anyone arguing bombing a hospital at this time in this way furthered either side's strategic aims is missing context. This was a fuckup. To what degree, and at what level, is largely what's being lost or obscured.
https://twitter.com/CensoredMen/status/1714355342987948106
Edit: also check the footage the Israeli intelligence guy posted. Tell me that whistle you hear before impact truly sounds like a piece of falling debris.
Strategic? What exactly is the strategic goal of Israel? And how is that accomplished by starving Gaza and cutting off electricity and water? Or the wanton destruction of Gaza? The cruelty is the point and this was no fuckup.
One can't presume to know this. Not with soldiers' lives at stake. Also, there is real risk of regional conflagration. How an air force generates and sustains sorties is closely guarded, even in peacetime, for good reason.
First, you'd scrub the information. Second, you'd weigh whether it's absolutely exonerating. Absent both conditions, it doesn't make sense to release those data.
> What exactly is the strategic goal of Israel?
Removing the ability of a hostile neighbor to project power into their territory. Currently, the chosen route appears to be decapitation. Eliminating the government in Gaza so it cannot wage war.
To do that, Israel--a small country--has to maintain a web of regional and international support. Bombing a hospital might serve tactical aims à la total war. (There are zero cases of bombing a population into submission. The historical precedent is it strengthens resolve. Nevertheless, I mention it for completeness.)
Unless Israel can credibly show this was done by Hamas, it has already lost more than it could have ever hoped to have gained by bombing a hospital. Even if it were smack over an Islamic Jihad weapons depot or whatever.
> how is that accomplished by starving Gaza and cutting off electricity and water
It denies the enemy the capacity to organize and wage war. I'm not ignoring the humanitarian effects. Just noting that power plants have been legitimate military targets for ages, and water supplies since time immemorial.
There was already a bunch of evidence shown, i'd wait 24/48 hour for legitimate press to go over and verify it and come to a conclusion.
also, it was 500 1min after it happen (very quick count), then it went down to 40 and then it went up again. don't forget those numbers are provided by hamas
Now if you could go back in time and prevent the invention of Photoshop and AI, I could believe anything I see in 2023.
Without and proof whatsoever I place the blame on Israel, Hamas, and Elvis. It was a 3-way collaboration.
I am 100% certain that I have as much credible evidence in this as anyone else does for their position.
No offense to my friends who are still influenced by video "proof."
idf supposed to share : uav footage from above and call intercepts discussing "oopsie". there is also some radar data
Al Jazeera Arabic video shows a point of view from al wafa medical towards Netivot (so eastward), and the failed rocket is flying initially northward, and was not fired from the sea at all, unlike the other video.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Palestine/comments/17au0zk/israel_f...
https://twitter.com/aja_palestine/status/1714599303862157797... https://twitter.com/aja_palestine/status/1714556376297398483...
I mean accidents can happen, but anyone thinking that hospital that was repeatedly warned, including by shelling, and refused to evacuate regardless, would just be left alone and had an accident the next day with a bomb falling exactly in the middle of the courtyard, just stretches credulity.
Why does one event matter so much to you? I didn't even bring this event up, just expressed my opinion about it.
I'm more concerned with Israel's overall genocidal aggression in Gaza, rather than individual incidents.
And if hamas had such capabilities, why didn't they use them yet, huh?
And we don't know what capabilities yet, we still don't know what happened.
the end> Since when can civilians on the ground know where the rocket that hit them came from?
And you replied:
> there are photos/videos now. a dozen of burned cars on parking lot. hospital is in one piece. all walls/roofs/etc are intact.
I don't see how your reply answers the question of where the rocket came from, just what you think the rocket hit.
and no, it's not weird. it's common on ycombinator.
in general i find it troubling that statement by hamas taken by everybody at face value, without ask for any proofs (besides 20 sec footage of something burning and 30 sec of doctors taking care of somebody somewhere there was absolutely nothing backing 500 dead and more under rubble). on the other side when idf publishes videos, photos, call intercepts, radar plotes, etc; it's "well, IDF has history of killing people and lying. we will reserve our judgement till we will see this confirmed by independent investigation".
Both sides have a history of "the other side has a history of killing people and lying, we will reserve our judgement". BOTH sides have a history of killing people and lying about it. But then on both sides there are a lot of innocent people being killed regardless.
there was entertaining thread on reddit a few days ago, where people were searching for "widely documented mass rapes by idf". the only documentation going back to statements from 1969 or so. after this everybody were split into 3 camps: - very good in coverup (kinda impossible given amount of human rights organizations that document everything)
- idf dehumanizes palestinians so idf is repulsed from idea of rape
- idf actually has some moral backbon
Especially when we have the live footage from al Jazeera of a failed launch followed by an explosion at the same time as the hospital explosion.
Here is the actual attack: https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1714337776873640216
Find me any other Hamas rocket that does that much damage. Especially when broken up and falling to the ground.
Go find physical evidence of a Hamas rocket doing the amount of damage that was done to the hospital.
This one seems to make a fairly significant blast, and that's one of the shorter range ones.
Plus assuming most of the fuel is still intact since the rocket misfired it could easily generate a 2-3x bigger explosion.
And from the photos it's seems like the explosion at the hospital was about the size of 1-2 cars as well, so fairly similar imo.
And lastly, the explosion at the hospital seems to be ground level, airburst would be higher above the ground.
Anyway, so far the experts who agreed to talk claim it doesn't look like an Israeli rocket explosion
Airburst can happen wherever the fuse is designed to activate.
Here: https://twitter.com/BowesChay/status/1714654233847288050
Direct comparison of a JDAM and the hospital attack.
Maybe, but if you are using airburst it doesn't make much sense to activate it at ground level since it defeats the purpose.
And again, the pictures taking during the day light show very little damage - the surrounding buildings are fully intact, so a JDAM just isn't likely, airburst or not.
Seems more like a fuel tank that blew up causing more fire type damage than anything.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/18/al-ahli-arab-h...
Channel 4 did an investigation and as expected the IDF bombed the hospital.
https://twitter.com/robertmackey/status/1714374889568911506?...