Maybe it's cyclical, but honestly I think the valley's days are done. There will be a new technology hub and it will be somewhere else.
I think the difference is that now as a SWE there are more options outside those two cities. NYC, Austin, and Boston taking off as startup hubs is a significant positive change, as well as the rise of Denver, DMV, and Atlanta.
Any diffusion of opportunity is a good problem to have, and doesn't impact the value of the Bay Area as a tech center. I can speak from experience that for some forward facing technologies, it's easier to get traction in the West Coast compared to Central and East.
EY report for Q1 2023 is even more drastic - https://www.ey.com/en_us/growth/venture-capital/q1-2023-vent.... SFBA has 25B+ investment while the second biggest (NYC) has 3.8B.
Capital.
Most angels, pre-seed, and incubators are still in the Bay Area and Seattle (largely a function of FAANG being HQed in those 2 metros).
The handful of those ime in the NYC area tend to aim towards Israeli startups that are semi-established already (eg. Team8).
Also, because plenty of tech companies have a significant presence across Asia or even started there, the Bay Area wins out due to reasonable direct flights to Beijing, Shanghai, Delhi, Bangalore, Singapore.
It's the same reason why most Israeli startups choose Boston and NYC, because you have a large Israeli diaspora there and direct El Al flights every single day excluding Shabbat.
> Garry Tan's twitter feed is full of examples
He brings up some real issues that SF's political establishment ignores, but he's also wading into local politics by funding a friend of his's entrance into SF local politics. Great guy but there is some vested interests going on. Sort of like Ron Conway 10-20 years ago.
> it looked like Chicago about a decade ago
I'd disagree. Chicago has always been more lively. It has the benefit of a younger crowd as it's a college town. SF and the Bay Area in general has professionalized, becoming sort of a Manhattan 2.0.
Also, the kind of cool artsy stuff you'd see 10-15 years ago is happening, but now mostly in Oakland and San Jose, because most people doing artsy stuff in their 20s today are living with their parents.
Alternatively, you might just not be "in" the crowd anymore. People my age don't club as much - we go to raves instead. We don't drink as much either - preferring to get stoned or just wake up early and workout and hike instead. My buddies in SF who moved to NYC mostly moved to club and get laid. Those of us who had the option and stayed weren't big into clubbing or already had relationships.
If you were used to clubbing or drinking culture on Polk St or Castro or Folsom or Mission a decade ago, that era's long dead.
I know plenty of startups in Palo Alto, San Mateo, Mountain View, Sunnyvale, San Jose and Santa Clara. Even in Oakland. I'd say center of gravity for SFBA is again shifting back to SV.
SF's differentiator in the Bay during the 2008-16 period was cheap office space due to the collapse of the "Wall Street of the West" during the GFC.
Otherwise, people would live in SF and commute down to RWC southwards to work. There was a time only 13-15 years ago when major tech companies didn't exist north of the Oracle office in Redwood Shores.
There's a limit to vandalism and "tech bros fuck off" that people will take, particularly when a huge chunk of "tech bros" are immigrants. You don't see the same animosity in NYC or Austin, so that's where the talent has gone.
I'm on the younger end (20s-early 30s) in SF and I remember stuff like that as a kid (Genentech buses) but haven't seen such stuff in our Gen Z/Millenial bubble. Tbf we mostly live in Mission Bay, Marina, Nob Hill, Richmond, Sunset, Potrero Hill, Dogpatch, Duboce Triangle, etc and the kinds of people who'd say that seem to be "boomers" in the Mission+Potrero+Dogpatch who continue to insist on calling Cesar Chavez "Army St", think grunge and flannels are still hip, and don't have much love for TikTok, KWave, Anime, or Boba.
If you love the former, then there definitely is a place for you in Austin, Denver, ATL, etc.
In 2022, SFBA was still more than 2x the next biggest hub (NYC): https://dealroom.co/guides/usa
EY report for Q1 2023 is even more drastic - https://www.ey.com/en_us/growth/venture-capital/q1-2023-vent.... SFBA has 25B+ investment while the second biggest (NYC) has 3.8B.