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you think war between two nuclear powers is likely?

Playing devil’s advocate - this was thought to be a real possibility during the Cold War, and it seems like we came pretty close a few times during that period.

A nuclear war between two nuclear powers is different from a conventional war between two nuclear powers.

The former is, hopefully, unlikely unless one side feels there’s an existential crisis or a major loss. The latter is extremely likely.

Though the latter can definitely escalate into the former.

> because they're so unlikely

Or because the outcomes might be so bad, it's not worth it to prepare for it.

> War with China does not seem to be that unlikely

Well, the more the US prepares for it, the more unlikely it is. Or, the best way to win a fight is to convince the other guy it's not worth fighting.