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Comment by johnea | Hacker News Reader

Still, when they consider a "low priced" EV to be $30K, it's still out of most peoplels reach...

I am not sure how it's out of reach for most people when the average price of new car in USA is like $48,000.

Sure, you might say the average price is skewed by people buying expensive trucks. But even Camry costs like $35-36k after dealer markups - you can get Tesla model 3 for like 32k now after federal rebate.

What is the median new car cost?

If you're looking to remove outliers, Kelley Blue Book also tracks the average (likely mean) of new non-luxury vehicle sales, which was $44,626 in September. Non-luxury is about 80% of sales.

Also, concerning the lower end of sales:

"But the news isn’t all good. Only one car sold for an average price under $20,000 last month. The Mitsubishi Mirage’s average transaction price in July was $19,205.

Every other car with a list price under $20,000 sold for over $20,000 on average. It’s not a large group. Automakers increasingly focus on building more expensive cars, trimming affordable models from their lineups. In December 2017, automakers produced 36 models priced at $25,000 or less. Five years later, they built just 10." [1]

[1] https://www.kbb.com/car-news/average-new-car-price-sees-smal...

That's somewhat helpful, especially the last two quoted sentences.

But for the other part they track luxury at the model level. If you get a jeep or truck that cost $50k-80k because you wanted heated/vented seats, a panoramic sunroof, etc then it's not included in luxury.

I think part of this is also inflation (seems like some sensational journalism dor modt of the articles I found - using average instead of mean and not using inflation). Inflation from December 2017 to December 2022 would mean a $20k car in 2017 would cost $24k in 2022 adjusted for inflation. That's a huge jump.

What percentage of people are buying new cars over used?

I make six figures, never bought a new car in my life and don't ever plan to. Most I've paid is $19K.

It will be interesting to see where EVs fit into the used car market, as the battery is a wear item and is responsible for a significant amount of the price of the car (i.e. what the price will be on a 10 year old EV that will require an $8000 replacement battery).

Agreed. Perhaps a saving grace will be that run down EV batteries can be used for stationary storage on the electric grid. There's significant value there, but I haven't seen repurchase programs advertised. Maybe there just aren't enough used batteries available yet.

Yeah, it'll be an interesting to see in a decade. Maybe we'll have a healthy market of salvage/rebuilt/recycled batteries driving down the costs to "rebuild" an EV. Maybe we'll find out recycling batteries isn't what we thought.

If batteries drop in price, even like 20%, a "rebuilt" used EV could be incredibly cheap as its operating costs and risks of drivetrain failure could be incredibly low. Coupled with reduced energy costs if charging gets ubiquitous for non-homeowners, it could be really nice.

I have bad luck selecting good used cars. I pay the premium for new, and then keep them for at least ten years. The used cars I find are either totally shot mechanically, or have unpleasant smelling destroyed interiors. Or both in the case of the one I lost the most money on.

I suggest going for off-lease or rental fleet vehicles. They shouldn’t have either of the issues you mentioned, especially if you get one that is still covered by the manufacturer warranty.

I bought two cars new, and with all the recalls and factory defects, (and ignoring price and depreciation) they were way worse than the used ones I’ve had experience with.

I've always done that too but the used car market has been so insane lately that it might make more sense to consider new as well going forwards.

Cox Automotive (parent of KBB) estimates 35.2 million used [1] and 15.4 million new car sales in the US for 2023 [2]. So, about 30% buy new.

[1] https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/estimated-monthly...

[2] https://www.coxautoinc.com/news/cox-automotive-forecast-augu...

A lot more used cars are sold, but the average price of a used car last year was $30,700.

Well, I bought new car and old computer. For some reason I found $34K for car okay but $1000 for a computer too much. (I work in IT, if that matters).

> I make six figures, never bought a new car in my life and don't ever plan to. Most I've paid is $19K.

Yes, I'm in your demographic. Most I've ever paid for a car (a rare new one) was 20K. Nearly every car I've had (in over 30 years of having cars), I've bought for less than 10K.

I like cars and driving. But cars are a depreciating asset. Never worth spending much on. Buy the cheapest used one you can find.

the average price of new gas cars is also out of reach for most people. But your point is valid, EVs aren't really all that different in price anymore.

Recently was thinking that new trucks being completely out of reach of prudent wage earners is behind the inane trend of silly big trucks that are increasingly less useful for ordinary truck stuff. That was triggered by an article discussing how a number of industries depend on 'whales' for half or more of their sales. Like how 10% of people drink half the booze. Perhaps most new trucks are bought by people with too much money and too little impulse control.

A base model 3 would cost me $25k in my state after IRA rebate.

Most Americans can absolutely afford a $30k car. Certainly not all at once, but definitely on a standard 60 month loan.

Do not mistake the word "most" for "all", unless you want to muddy the waters.

Not disagreeing but the phrase “standard 60 month loan” makes me cringe. 20 years ago more than 36 would have raised eyebrows.

72 is the new standard or so I'm told, and I've seen 84 listed as an option.

I don't think 4+ year loans were as uncommon in 2003 as you do. 1993 or 1983 maybe...

7-year loans, now... that's new.

But cars also last longer as well as costing more so... eh. I don't know what to make of it.

Pst, they can only afford it because of the 60 month loan, where you pay an astronomical amount in interest on top of the sticker price.

So no, they cannot. "Most" Americans are paying for a car based on what monthly payment they can afford, and never thinking about how much they actually owe.

Astronomical in the APR sense would be roughly +20%-40% over the lifetime of the loan in this scenario, meaning $36k - $42k. Over 5 years.

So yes. Most Americans can afford this.

Easily.

> standard 60 month loan

That's.... crazy!

Car loans should be no more than 3 years.

But really, to be responsible, only ever buy a car with cash on hand. If you need a loan, find a cheaper car until you don't need a loan.

Once I bought a car with a loan but only because the manufacturer had a 0% interest offer.

A barebones Toyota Camry is $26,420.

Yeah the only sub-20k options are like a Nissan Sentra or Chevy Spark (do they still make those?) or something like that.

Even in Europe the small car options are disappearing. Ford discontinued the Fiesta recently, what had been the best selling car in the UK for years. VW have just announced they are stopping the Up.

I do wonder if the manufacturers are leaving the door open for Chinese manufacturers. They may come to regret this policy.

Based on the political environment I think there is pretty much zero chance Chinese manufacturers are going to be allowed to take over a significant portion of the Western auto market.

They're brand new cars. There aren't many brand new cars cheaper than that. A new Toyota Corolla costs more than $30K.

In the UK there's MG4 that is a surprisingly decent BEV for £27K (that's a price without grants/incentives), but it probably won't be available in the US, since it's a Chinese-owned brand.

The best selling vehicle in the US is the F-150 and most of them sell for well over $30k new.

30k is significantly less than avg priced internal combustion engine cars.

Depends how you measure.

If you enumerate the ICE cars for sale, the mean and median is much higher than 30k, yes.

If you enumerate the cars purchased in a given year (and ESPECIALLY if you include used cars), the median price paid for a car may be well under 30k.

ATP for a new car in July was $48,334. For used cars, it was $29,5k last quarter.

$30k is a lot of money for sure. But it does not get you much car these days, new or used.

Again, that's skewed upwards because there's no upper bound on the price of an expensive new car, but the lower bound of a cheap new car is 0.

The mean price of a car, like the mean price of a house, is much less meaningful than the median.

What’s the price of a low priced regular car though?

a nisaan versa is 16k msrp. a 30k toyota or honda will last you 20 years

I will laugh my way to the bank with my ten year old Toyota that has only required oil changes!

that's great. and it has good resale value. the engine will always be solid which we can't say for degrading batteries.

Source?

It hasn't just required oil changes. It also requires fuel, which is increasingly much, much more expensive than electricity.

Gas systems also degrade over time - MPG drops with the life of a vehicle, and it's not actually clear that behavior is much different from battery range loss...

I would like an EV.

But I have a 14 year old Honda Fit. Its MPG has not dropped at all over time. It has needed nothing but wear-and-tear maintanance and new spark plug coil things. 190k miles. Gas prices vary, but I have a car already, and it seems at least questionable that it is more environmentally sound that this vehicle remains in use till its true end of life. I am not particularly motivated by money, but I can buy a lot of gas for the cost of a new vehicle, so the cost argument feels weak.

And EVs become expensive bricks in about 10 years time.

or elon gets mad and turns off access to your car.

When they first came out, people claimed it was three years. Then five. None of it has come true.

Thats a myth.

Sort of baited you. I drive a Prius. Great, I’ve gone 45 to 35 mpg :)

> MPG drops with the life of a vehicle, and it's not actually clear that behavior is much different from battery range loss...

That's incorrect. Not sure where you heard that.

MPG drops, sure, but it's so little it's hardly worth measuring. My intra-city full-tank range on a previous petrol car I owned went from (when almost new) ~800km to (350000km later) ~780km.

No repairs other than services. The other cars I've owned show no measurable difference in range as wear increased.

> MPG drops with the life of a vehicle

That is not true.

As a fan of older used cars, I would notice. It's not true.

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