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Comment by belval | Hacker News Reader

While I understand that Apple is a PC manufacturer for analysis purposes, I think their cycles are likely different than the regular consumer cycles. Even the analyst cited in the article mentions Windows 10 being deprecated in 2024 as a driver for PC shipments, but that does not really apply to Apple.

There is also the M1 possibly having a bit more longevity. Consumer grade Windows laptop usually starts degrading at the 3 years mark because of the battery decaying. Since the M1 had much longer battery life out of the box, it seems likely this adds a delay in the replacement cycle.

After all of this I feel compelled to say, I don't own a Mac or Apple stock, I just think the headline might be slightly misleading.

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The lifespan of a laptop is not tied to a replaceable battery - if you buy a new laptop because you have lost 20% battery capacity, then you are making an unsound financial decision.

A laptop does not really degrade much apart from cosmetic wear or physical damages - instead, what the same amount of money can get you changes, and at some point you feel like that cost has been amortized and that the gap between back then and now has increased enough to justify a new purchase. The only reason M1's would last longer in that regard would be stagnation on Apple's behalf.

Same with how the PC market had stagnated with minimal generational improvements until both Ryzen and M1 shook things up in interesting ways.

Laptops definitely get replaced when the battery stops holding charge, but typically that happens at 5+ Yeats not 3.

In my experience it's: battery goes bad after 2-3 years and then you replace the laptop after 5 years because you are tired of using your laptop as a desktop computer because it shuts down as soon as you unplug it.

Sure after 2-3 years you still have some charge, but it's more like 1 hour when browsing the Internet and not the 6-7 hours that it had originally.

I might just be buying shitty laptops though. Do your phone batteries also last 5 years?

Does anyone else not just buy a new battery? Fresh install, NVMe SSD, a clean fan and fresh thermal paste, maybe a new WiFi card. Makes a laptop feel new again.

I think it depends on circumstances...

Below a certain dollar amount, the refurbish vs replace from a value standpoint changes quickly.

You forgot more ram. OTOH, I've not reinstalled a machine in 15+ years for perf reasons. As I upgrade the machine, what has killed the last few desktop machines has been MS dropping support. Or in the case of linux laptops the fact that I get tired of the eventual tape and bailing wire nature of 5+ year old machines full of dings, dents and broken ports or the CPU perf has finally gotten to the point where I can get >4x perf uplift.

> The lifespan of a laptop is not tied to a replaceable battery

This applies to me. My laptop is 10 years old, has 16G memory and is running Linux. I have replaced battery once before (and definitely need a new battery again now).

Edit: replace 9 years old with 10 years old

You can come up with these excuses and caveats, but at the end of the day they don't matter.

if you have a 401k or really any mutual fund, you own AAPL like it or not...

the M1 is marketed at the right price point to bring in volume sales, and they are still winning converts from Windows

so a decline this deep seems to speak more about rapidly deteriorating consumer activity

There are many funds other than the Vanguard Index funds (or similar alternatives), and there are definitely ones that don't include AAPL.

Yes.

IT folks that use Apple, wouldn't surprise me if new hires get something from a previous round of layoffs.

Regular consumers, between everything else being more expensive and/or seeing store financing rates go even higher, are more likely to repair their existing device to get by or just stick with a non Apple laptop.

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