US intelligence warned of potential for Gaza clash in days before attack

The more important context is that exactly 50 years and 1 day before the attack, Israel was the victim of a surprise attack. Just like in this case. Intelligence failed. They had clues, they saw the forces amassed at the border. But leadership both in the military and the leadership level convinced itself that the enemy was defeated.

This is a repeat of history on the damn anniversary of that failure!

Leadership should have known. In fact, the head of opposition made a warning one month prior that there are forces coming in https://twitter.com/onehaham/status/1710628628692680925

He understood there are risks from the briefings he got, but the prime minister was too busy trying to overthrow democracy to care. He probably wanted a war so he can assume power.

Another question is how many times they warned before and attacks didn't happen?

I have read and heard about "intelligence" from quite a few bureaucrats and military people in podcasts and interviews. One view that is put forward is that a lot of "intelligence" is of the CYA variety. E.g.: there is a ---- celebration/festival tomorrow and large congregations of people are expected. There is a probability of such-and-such happening.

HN readers are surely familiar with "security fatigue" by way of continuous security popups on their operating systems and repeated password expiry shenanigans.[1]

This flow of bullshit intelligence is so constant and numerous that most administrators simply ignore a lot of it.

[1] ‘Security Fatigue’ Can Cause Computer Users to Feel Hopeless and Act Recklessly, New Study Suggests https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2016/10/security-fatig...

>None of the American assessments offered any tactical details or indications of the overwhelming scope, scale and sheer brutality of the operation that Hamas carried out on October 7

Knowing somebody might attack you in someway, somewhere, and on some day seems kind of useless to stop it. Am I missing something?

There's some very useful context on the recent history of military strategic doctrine (and its accompanying blind spots) in this article: https://bafriedman.substack.com/p/the-idfs-decisive-victory-...

tl;dr an overly-firm belief in the main strategic threat coming from Hezbollah in the north-east, and an over-reliance on technology at the expense of infantry defense left the door open for Hamas, who themselves overestiamted the resistance they would face.

Complacency in/of social Attenuation.

I thought it was Egypt who warned about it? (From UK media)

Also, this was Hamas not Gaza. It wasn't the innocent civilians who are being killed who did this.

no duh. Why the "presidential alert" days before?

IDGAD about your responses

NM

The number of news articles I've been fed telling me how to think about this war is particularly creepy. This is especially when so many of them have titles such as "How to morally think about the war in Israel". And especially when I try to hide anything remotely political from my feeds.