The most successful people I know fell into category two, and all struggled for more than a decade each and had multiple mentors, but ultimately took out loans (from banks, friends, etc) that weren't based on owning shares; none relied on VC. None of them are billionaires, but they are solid decimillionaires (if that's even a word) whose businesses practically run on autopilot.
I think the author makes excellent points that I thought were common sense but I guess they are not, however I don't know a lot of techie entrepreneurs anymore, they are all much younger than me (mid-50s). All I know about younger startup folks is based on scanning HN for the past decade, but it seems they are all chasing the brass ring the same way the author describes. And the truth is in the numbers.