We always end up back with cluster/cohort analysis, then definitions. I think a big part of the problem is that we've already convinced ourselves of the definitions of the terms. These definitions prevent actual progress. We end up defining ourselves into our own locked room.
No, indeed, the thing you've been asked to do is an exercise in risk management -- there is no statistical reality to the predictions here; ignore them.
So, i'd still say that opener is vital. I try to move on to ensemble scenario modelling prose-style by several experts, etc. then, eventually, i tell them about geometric brownian motion -- only when i'm convinced they're absolutey certain it's smoke-and-mirrors
And that therefore they are aware that their job is primarily to manage risk, and a statistical model is only one minor (often blinding) tool in that box
If you need a point estimate, so be it, but claw it from my cold dead fingers. Most of the world isnt knowable, sorry to disappoint. Now go actually manage your damn responsibilities