A wild idea to protect the Great Barrier Reef
nautil.us
nautil.us
The team is investigating powering their operations without burning fossil fuels.
My suggestion: look into nuclear-powered vessels. Good mobility, no dependence on external energy sources (using solar panels if your goal is to increase cloud cover may not be very useful). As a bonus, using nuclear ships to protect the coral reef is sure to send Greenpeace into a fit.
Depends you define it. We hadn't completely given up, so it's not a complete failure in that sense. But we have consistently failed to meet every action for the climate goals we set ourselves and have to continuously re-evalute our "best case scenario."
Also, with heavier vehicles, you aren’t going to magically be able to use less overall power to drive them. ICEs aren’t as efficient as larger power factories, but they also don’t have dozens or hundreds of miles of transmission losses and transformers to run through. All renewables combined just surpassed coal in the US (report date Feb 2023) but that’s still only about half as much as comes from natural gas: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3
You can use this tool to look up the numbers for your state for total cradle-to-grave emissions for EVs vs hybrids vs ICE https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.html
Public transit would still be an order of magnitude or two better. Bikeable / walkable cities would be better still.
I’m not saying EVs bad, but I am saying that EVs won’t solve climate change. We need to do a whole lot more, and I have zero confidence that we will. It’s just a matter of how bad and how soon. As someone in my 30s, I very much doubt that we’ll get to enjoy retirement with the same standards of living as the previous couple of generations, and as for our children and their children…I don’t think a Mad Max scenario is more than a hundred years away.
2) even if EVs don’t cut the transportation energy as much as we wish, they allow the entire fleet to smoothly transition to climate-friendly energy.
I love bikes. I have an e-bike that is 10x as efficient as an EV. But the public simply isn’t willing to switch to public transit and bikes. Even if they were, a fleet of gas-powered busses will probably be worse for the climate than wind-powered EVs.
P.S. microplastics are a real problem, but if you believe climate change is an existential threat, microplastics are not a very good reason to argue against EVs.
I thought you had to be exaggerating, but I just looked it up and you're right.
Holy moly. I'm genuinely surprised this isn't more widespread knowledge. I never hear it come up in most conversations around the pros and cons of EV's.
AFAIK, if the water acidifies even a bit more, no living organisms will be able to have any shells of any kind on them as the water becomes corrosive and simply dissolves the shells over time.
pH does not fluctuate much, true, but it drops steadily which is just as deadly to coral.
What is geoengineering?
This is a local measure, little different from erecting a huge sunshade (and very different from blocking the sun from the stratosphere or orbit).
I consider geo engineering to be action at a planetary level, like the above mentioned stratospheric dreams or driving lots of automobiles. Something local, that can be switched on and off almost instantaneously, to be quite different.
Are he big machines that suck the atmosphere through a straw geoengineering?
Some countries will start geo-engineering, it's just a matter of time. Dubious that it will actually help. Might make things much worse, though.
Casey Handmer has done the numbers on geoengineering, and it's feasible as a stopgap measure. In the article below scroll down to the section on Solar Radiation Management.
"We should not let the Earth overheat!"
https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2023/06/06/we-should-not-...
Maybe that's just a me-problem, or a problem of mankind in general: the volumes and scales we're talking about (2 teraton of CO2!) just don't fit in my mind, so any solution at that scale likewise is incomprehensible to me. Then again, we only needed 200 years to produce it, so given our technological advancements, maybe it's not impossible to solve it in two decades.
I don't hold much hope though. The same government/industrial forces that delayed preventative action by 40 years will also delay restorative action, by probably the same number of years. There will be unforeseen consequences, either way. And millions will die, either way.
I also don't think we'll pave the whole thing over.
We changed the fuel regulations for ships in 2020.
The atlantic ocean near North America is now at all time high temperatures. Could be related. ?
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shippin...
Getting good at it is one way out.
I gotta say, I find articles like this to be brilliant. Not easy to write. But this one was emotionally spot on.
https://www.uu.nl/en/news/call-for-non-use-agreement-solar-g...
I.e. antibiotics, home heating or some forms of transport wouldn't be inessential under that definition, but giant hoards of factory farmed meat, large private yacht fleets or the insanity that is the status quo of daily work commute would be.
But even if we achieve that tomorrow, that just one of the needed wins, e.g. the seas would still be full of plastic debris and fertiliser run-off. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458
We’ve already accidentally geoengineered the whole planet. We might as well understand what we're doing and steer it better. As well as, not instead of.
The MEER is another example but for humans (with mirrors): https://www.meer.org/
As always these only buy a bit of time if not coupled with massive and swift CO2, methane, chemicals runouts, etc etc etc reduction, didn’t check if mentioned in the article.
IIRC the temperature in the oceans is lagging by decades, so they'll likely continue rising even if we fixed everything
[0] https://www.tropicnow.com.au/2022/august/4/best-coral-cover-...
The set of species that thrives in a changed or fast-changing ecosystem, is (usually) less diverse than the one thriving under slow-changing conditions.
The actual problem here is that reef scientists didn't predict the current levels of the GBR. They strongly predicted the opposite, saying that after the last bleaching in ~2020 it could take a decade to recover.
Nor is ocean acidification a thing anymore. That theory was debunked years ago, by the founder of Greenpeace no less:
https://www.climatedepot.com/2015/06/24/greenpeace-co-founde...
That's why you hardly hear about it anymore. Better understanding of corals made it clear there's no real problem there.
The reefs are millions of years old. Academic study of them is only about 40 years old. They have no clue what they're talking about and this was just proven in the most dramatic way possible: a prediction with near 100% confidence that was proven utterly wrong within <2 years of it being made. You can see why they have been making such predictions when you look at a graph of their dataset:
https://dailysceptic.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/coral.pn...
Up until about 2010 the level of coral cover was in slow decline. But 1980-2010 is a tiny slice of the history of the corals, and when growth suddenly reversed in 2015 and 2020, reaching record levels, they were taken entirely by surprise. This is what happens when academics extrapolate from tiny datasets in order to drum up funding.
Allowing these people to screw with the Earth via geo-engineering, to solve problems that only exist in their minds, would take climate extremism to a whole other level and make the culture war surrounding it way, way hotter. It's just not worth it. They should leave the reefs to do their thing.
However, AIMS monitoring program team leader Dr Mike Emslie said domination of one species is not ideal.
“These corals are particularly vulnerable to wave damage, like that generated by strong winds and tropical cyclones,” he said.
“They are also highly susceptible to coral bleaching, when water temperatures reach elevated levels, and are the preferred prey for crown-of-thorns starfish.
“This means that large increases in hard coral cover can quickly be negated by disturbances on reefs where Acropora corals predominate.”
Aren't there ocean currents and tides and things? Does ocean water really "sit still" for long enough that the temperature could be reduced for weeks, without warmer water from further away flowing in?
> “It’s an average of about 30 or 40 meters deep; it’s very shallow. It’s a huge lagoon where the circulation with the Pacific Ocean is very much cut off. So water exchanges slowly through these 3,000-and-something reefs. The reason that cloud brightening can work for the Great Barrier Reef is that you’ve got all of this water trapped here.”
We get clear waters occasionally, but it’s typically in the darker periods of the year (winter) when tides are relatively calm. This means less algae and less debris moving around. It makes for stunning diving opportunities, but it’s extremely cold and perfect visibility (by our standards) is pretty rare.
Topics like this that impact more people deserve much more open scrutiny.
For example, it seems pretty clear that we would have major problems everywhere on Earth if we clearcut the entire Amazon rainforest. That seems to me to justify saving it.
In short: does the Great Barrier Reef’s existence have similar far-flung implications, or is this effort based on status quo bias?
That is a big premise of climate change mitigation. We don't necessarily know all the knock on effects of CO2 and other pollution, but we don't need to. Any climate/ecosystem alteration is generally disruptive to civilization, which is why things have to be so critical to even discuss geoengineering.
Please don't question how we got here - your mindset is the answer.
That said, under discussion is whether or not resources should be spent to save it (and what format the allocation of those resources might be). It is thus more than reasonable to ask “what happens if we don’t?”.
Doing nothing is frequently (IMO in the vast majority of times) the best problem-solving strategy. Whenever faced with a problem, my first thought is always “if we do nothing and wait, will this problem go away in an acceptable fashion?”
For example: There are many thousands of stray cats out in the world who will die of lack of food and shelter very soon. Does your “mindset” have you out feeding and sheltering them? Do they not matter because they don’t have immediate functional utility?
This sort of black and white thinking you seem to be applying doesn’t lend itself well to doing cost/benefit analysis over a set of possible future actions.
My (limited) understanding is that there's a feedback loop (both positive and negative) between vegetation and rainfall -- so why not kickstart it in the positive direction?
Whatever the ambient temperature, I'm fond of breathing without pain and without drugs.
Maybe I'm weird. Or maybe other people have this same quirk and would like pollution levels to go down anyway.
New species will evolve to take over the niche.
Control is a powerful drug.
I would like to think that I will leave this world better than I found it. However, I doubt this goal is achievable. I am actively destroying my children's future, and my hoped for grandchildren's future.
I do what little I can to try to lessen the rate of destruction, but we are all part of society and all share the same guilt.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coral_reef
Sometimes called rainforests of the sea,[3] shallow coral reefs form some of Earth's most diverse ecosystems. They occupy less than 0.1% of the world's ocean area, about half the area of France, yet they provide a home for at least 25% of all marine species,[4][5][6][7] including fish, mollusks, worms, crustaceans, echinoderms, sponges, tunicates and other cnidarians.[8] Coral reefs flourish in ocean waters that provide few nutrients. They are most commonly found at shallow depths in tropical waters, but deep water and cold water coral reefs exist on smaller scales in other areas.