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Comment by torginus | Hacker News Reader

People who are bullish for EVs I implore you to reconsider - current EVs containing a literal ton of batteries with limited lifespans belong in the green future, especially 80% of that doesn't get used for daily commute.

It's obvious to me that considering the full-lifecycle costs (both manufacturing, usage and ownership), some sort of hybrid solution is the greenest, for the current crop of personal cars.

But I believe once self-driving robotaxis arrive, they are going to reshape transportation - they're going to be used for short distance commute, and hauling people to train stations for long distance commute. At least in Europe.

Range anxiety won't be a thing, since these taxis won't ever cover large distances.

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Batteries mostly outlast the EVs they are in and are being recycled when they don't. Most EVs produced since they entered the market a bit over a decade ago are actually still driving fine. Most of them even have their original battery. You can get some really nice second hand models at this point. Of course they hold their value pretty well too. That's why manufacturers give eight year warranties on their batteries and drive trains. Basically, very little risk for them.

Hybrid is for people that are confused about what they want or need. You basically get the worst of both worlds: lots of maintenance and fuel cost, pollution, and they aren't that much more efficient. Or green. Lots of fiddly bits that break down and need maintenance. And the fuel economy isn't that great either. And the battery range is tiny.

Range anxiety is going to be a thing for ICE and hybrid car owners pretty soon. As petrol demand collapses, the infrastructure for filling up cars is going to start disappearing. Starting with the least profitable, remote petrol stations in the middle of nowhere that are already struggling to get by. What happens when 20-30% of their customers start driving EVs that they mostly charge at home? Exactly, they won't survive that. Not a chance. And of course, that 20-30% is just a brief moment in time on the way to 50, 80, and eventually 100%. Between now and 2030, there's going to be increasingly more struggling gas station owners. And beyond that it's going to be a massacre. Year on year declines in business with no end in sight.

>Batteries mostly outlast the EVs they are in and are being recycled when they don't.

Are they reused in practice? Are they recycled? Can you give me a comprehensive plan on this? Is there an EU mandate on this?

According to this article from MIT they're hard to recycle:

https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/how-well-can-electric-vehicl....

I feel like this is an emotionally and ideologically driven issue with a really complex answers. Like most climate and green activism, action predates thinking, and the costs are only seen in hindsight. And more often than not, the proposed actions seem to be to throw away your already existing and working stuff, to buy more, newer stuff that's supposed to be greener.

And even buying the line that EV total CO2 emissions are less over the life of a vehicle

This makes the whole thing look like the affluent West trading global environmental concerns of CO2 emissions, to much more severe, local ones that strike less fortunate economies.

Issues such as lithium mining:

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/lithium-batteries-environmen...

Or battery manufacture:

https://www.greenpeace.org/hungary/environmentally-speaking-...

So once more rich people get to feel good about themselves, while getting new shiny stuff.

And corporations can convince people to buy 10x as much batteries as they actually need, because people think in labels like 'petrol bad'.

I kind of agree that hybrids suck, but most of that is due to manufacturers not putting the R&D and investments in, because the public is against them.

I would encourage you to educate yourself more on this.

The crossover point is 1.5 years for EVs to be net better than ICE cars, for one thing.

Also electric motor drivetrains make much more efficient use of energy, so even when powered by coal-generated electricity, EVs still win. Meantime power sources are getting more clean over time.

Feels pretty green charging an EV at home with solar panels.

in their current format no. but I think there is sufficient demand for long range personal vehicles, and as the world gets more electric, battery tech will get better. I can easily see a future where 1000 mile range on a single charge will be a norm. and I can easily see an America that requires that. range anxiety will decrease as charging gets faster and easier to access. but I just can't see an America household going 2x electric vehicles until 1000mile range with a charge up time of an hour or two is the norm.

I'm actually a huge fan of full ev hybrids that have on board gasoline generators

I generally agree with you about 2 electric cars. That said, I don't see how a 1000 mile car is possible. You can't even get that with generally available gas cars (The Volkswagen XL1 only has a 650 km range for those curious.)

I own a used EV (a 2019 Model 3 that I picked up this year) with real-world 300km range. It's an amazing main car, except that it is too small for my family. Still, we use it for about 80% of our transportation now (the other 20% being handled by a minivan).

More saliently, the charge time at home from 5% to 80% was ~30 hours on my level 1 charger. The idea of getting 5 times as much range in 1/30th the time sounds dangerous, unless we are talking about much smaller vehicles.

I've heard Toyota talking about solid state batteries, and I hope someone eventually succeeds in bringing them to market. However, I assume it will be used to reduce the weight and cost of the vehicle, not drastically increase range (and cost and charge time)

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