Massive spending/entitlement cuts aren't popular.
~40% of the country is on either Medicaid, SNAP, Medicare, or Social Security.
That's ~46% of Federal spending. Besides Republicans for SNAP - it's completely untouchable.
~12% of Federal spending is the military. With all the wars going on - good luck cutting that.
After interest - you only have ~16% of spending left to cut. And that's the stuff I think most people are in agreement we actually want!
You can't squeeze blood from a stone.
What's most likely to happen is that instead of ~40% of US adults not working - that number will decrease - and you'll have a larger, more productive tax base and less people on entitlements - strictly due to market forces.
There's definitely a lot of low hanging fruit to be picked here but the special interests are so entrenched that the political will would need to be much higher than it currently is.
The US is ridiculously unhealthy.
I'm not sure how much more you expect to spend compared to France - when the median citizen is morbidly obese, sedentary, and an alcoholic or a smoker or a diabetic.
Considering the health of our citizens - 5% more doesn't sound bad.
> have relied on other nations to buy our bonds.
This is false. The vast majority of US government debt is held domestically. Foreign holdings have been increasing, but as of 2022, still only represents 30% of debt.
This unit of measure is really unfortunate. It makes it seem like 100% is some maximum limit.
When I become Unit Emperor, it will be "US debt is over 14 months of GDP".
> They are selling our bonds and not buying these days.
Who is "they"?
We're already at the cliff's edge, watching interest rates climb while trillions of US short term debt turns over. It would only take a couple more points of interest to make all of the US Treasury spreadsheets go from the bright red they're already at to flashing red with klaxons.
And they'll do what they all, always do: monetize. Blow out the currency. That's our fate, and it's inexorable at this point. The only question is when.
This is hyperbole: if you increase rates by even 2x debt will still be serviceable.
Ultimately growth will just lead to higher spending. A complete solution is a bit of both. Cutting spending or capping it, and growth. Without cuts or a cap Congress will just see growth as a sign they can spend more money we don't have.
Based on what? What is the "loan payments" here? Are you saying the US budget will be 100% dedicated to servicing the debt by 2028? This is certainly false, the cost to service debt will not go up ~10x in the next five years.
Well, the talking heads on MSNBC, Bloomberg, et. all are saying a recession (if not a depression) in the near term is inevitable. A hot war in a really volatile part of the world kicked off the other day. Crypto isn't the new kid on the block anymore but it's definitely still hanging around.
Seems all your conditions are close to being met, if they aren't already. Yikes.
>We need not only a balanced budget amendment, but massive spending/entitlement cuts and austerity
So much this. Somehow I imagine that for example, the Pentagon, wouldn't really see its operational readiness hindered if we cut its budget by $100 billion a year or so.