Russia has been doing the rounds looking for allies, some way to cause a shake up, etc. In a parallel universe, what were the odds that countries like Iran and NK showed higher than normal competency this year?
Despite that, my money is on the Saudis stirring shit up again. Financing terrorists to fight against western interests is kinda their thing. Say what you will about Russia, but they clearly fight and die in their own battles.
If the US gets bogged down with a conflict in the Pacific, Ukraine and Israel are going to be in serious trouble...World War 3 will likely ensue.