Ask HN: Is your country facing a housing crisis right now, in 2023? | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: Is your country facing a housing crisis right now, in 2023?

19 pointsDrNosferatu24 comments

How wide is this issue?

Please speak up and name your country.

Australia, absolutely.

In 2019-2020 37.4% of mortgagees and 58% of renters in lower-income households spent more than 30% income on housing [1]. Since then rental pricing has detached from reality (or at least CPI) [2] and house prices have continued to climb. There also appears to be entry of large investment firms starting to buy up assets which is mildly terrifying.

The housing rocket ship has been great for anyone on it, but horrendous for the future of society. We're currently hardlining towards neo-feudalism within a generation or two.

[1]: https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/australias-welfare/housing-a...

[2]: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2023/jun/new-in...

In the U.S. I would say yes in many parts of the country. I've lived in SF, DC, San Diego, N. Nevada, and all of them are plagued by extremely high home prices making purchasing a home pretty unattainable for the average person (Nevada only in recent years). This was already an issue before interest rates went through the roof, now I imagine that if you need a mortgage buying a house is dramatically more expensive.

Yes.

In Spain buying is almost impossible unless it's a couple and both have been saving for a decade.

Renting is no different. Prices increase around 20% in my city every year. People used to share in their early twenties but now they are forced to do it in their thirties too. I even know people in their 40s who have to move back with their parents after a breakup because with their salaries they can't afford to rent alone. Rent control is also making things worse.

That's interesting, I recently saw a map which showed that Spain in particular has a larger percentage of young adults living with parents: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/05/03/in-the-u-...

Having lived recently in Denmark, UK, and Spain, I think these 3 and most other EU countries are experiencing the same issue.

Well-paid jobs are concentrated in a few regions where real estate prices have skyrocketed. It sucks big time.

You may struggle to rent or buy small properties even with a highly-paid IT job.

I have an IT job and there's no way I'm able to buy anything. It's just impossible.

In TX it depends what city, you can still find something in DFW that is affordable but might not be in a prime location. Housing here has gone up almost 50% in the last 8 years. 400k will typically get you an average nice smallish house but 600-800 will get you an extremely nice large house. Job market is decent, wages are good, quality of life is comfortable and affordable.

In places like Toronto, Canada, a house that cost 300k is now selling for 1.2 million 10-12 years later. A condo use to be something a first time buyer could afford but now they too have increased in price where 500 sq/ft -1000 sq/ft can run 700k to 1 Mil. Most folks can't afford the down payment and you need to be earning around 300k to even consider buying something with the interest rates at 7-8 %. I actually saw the price of a Condo I was watching go from 300k in Oct 2019 to 600k in April of 2020. It doubled in price in like 6 months. Housing was going up in price 1.5k -2k a week during the Pandemic.

A lot of this is going to heavily depend on definition. San Francisco is expensive, but should anyone be able to live there at any income? Is it a housing crisis if they could move elsewhere but refuse to do so? In addition, how much space is too little? How many bathrooms are too few?

My Dad grew up in a 1200 sqft house with 5 people and 2 bathrooms. Even as a junior banker/accountant, he had roommates while living in Toronto. But the expected standard is increasingly one bedroom/one bathroom for everyone. People complain that a 700 sqft condo is a shoebox as well.

Having roommates, or renting a room in someone's house, or living as a boarder, was not that uncommon in years past, especially if you were single. I'm not sure how common this still is, but I agree it seems that expectations for housing have risen.

In America, living with roommates has absolutely been a norm through at least one's mid 20s. The idea that everyone gets a clean, safe studio apartment within walking distance of all important and fun things has always been a luxury, not a guarantee. You're definitely right that people want more now.

Which is a good thing, we want to live in a society where people keep asking for things to be better. But it's also good to remember where we came from, and try to be humble.

Finland outside capital region in one of the big cities, new housing has stupid prices, but existing stock is somewhat reasonable. Ofc, variable rate mortgages going up have hurt that. But it still isn't unreasonable...

Cheap areas farther from downtown are actually pretty cheap.

Israel - yes, very much so. The worst in the world by some metrics[1]. From 2010-2020 housing prices went up 345% and wages went up 17%. And it got way worse since that article was published. 20% a year has been the norm.

[1] https://web.archive.org/web/20220709051432/https://www.money...

Germany. Absolutely.

Berlin feels full. Flats are impossible to find. Prices are exploding. Landlords are really taking the piss. Buying is not advisable either because the prices have not adjusted to the interest rates.

The US housing crisis is especially acute because the thinking is so local. We don’t have enough housing units in our most economically productive cities so individual actors move to cities with a lower cost of living. Those cities then skyrocket in price and the cycle continues.

We have no coherent strategy for how to increase the number of housing on a national level. To be fair, CA has removed quite a bit of local zoning control because the housing crisis is so acute.

Yes, of course. There has been an ongoing housing crisis for decades, why would 2023 be any different?

It's interesting to me that the issue seems to be mostly in the anglosphere - moving to France I noticed folks are more willing to live in apartments and not pay 10-20 years salary for their first home (more like 3-5).

True for the restaurant business as well, I've noticed people prefer to eat cheap fast food instead of expensive restaurant meals. I also noticed that people prefer to not have a car than paying for an expensive new car, that they prefer to not have children and that they prefer to work low wage jobs instead of those hard to get high wage jobs.

Urban density has increased greatly in select areas but building laws are such that building new housing is both difficult and expensive. Seems unlikely to change in western countries

What is a housing crisis? For homeowners the meaning would be different compared to those who rent.

It depends on the definitions of a housing crisis, but according to “ The Guardian” [0]Spain is in the worst housing crisis in Europe.

Here this the summary:

“ In Spain, a significant housing law, aimed at enshrining housing as a fundamental human right, was implemented on May 26, following years of development. However, its future is uncertain due to the recent gain of rightwing parties in elections and a snap election called by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez for July 23. The law's roots date back to 1956, aiming to transition Spain to a nation of homeowners and establishing "publicly protected housing," which could be sold after 30 years. Spain, with nearly 80% of homes being owner-occupied, faced a crisis in 2008 when global real estate issues led to widespread evictions and skyrocketing rents, amidst only a minimal increase in wages. This disparity has resulted in Spain having the highest housing cost overburden rate in Europe and sparked a housing movement driven by anti-eviction activists and tenants’ unions.”

[0] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/05/spain-...

Can you define what you mean by housing crisis? Affordability, supply etc.?

Monthly housing costs being higher than one third of your monthly net income. (assuming immediate access)

How is this rule-of-thumb automatically applicable to everywhere? Some places have higher taxes and lower housing costs, others are the opposite. And that's just within the United States.

In US everything is great.

There are some exceptions but these are not a norm.

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