The final seconds of a fatal Tesla Autopilot crash – A reconstruction
washingtonpost.com
washingtonpost.com
The problem is not Tesla experimenting with self driving tech. The problem is Tesla is overstating its capabilities, confusing consumers with mixed messaging between their marketing/CEO statements and reality, and reaping the financial benefits of convincing users they are buying autonomous-capable cars when they are nowhere near autonomous.
Has it? In question here is Autopilot and not FSD Beta, with the car stating that Autosteer is just to keep you within the lane lines with this popup required to enable it[0] (and a different popup to enable auto-lane-change, if you pay for enhanced). Note that rental cars (or at least my Hertz rental) also have it turned off by default to make sure the person driving sees this.
The post also mentions:
> However, the NTSB also cited Banner’s “overreliance on automation,” saying Tesla’s design “permitted disengagement by the driver” and contributed to the crash. Four years later, despite pleas from safety investigators, regulators in Washington have outlined no clear plan to address those shortcomings, allowing the Autopilot experiment to continue to play out on American roads, with little federal intervention.
In relation to Tesla's efforts, they have since implemented active driver monitoring - if you look down at your phone, or even passenger, for more than a few seconds with it engaged, it loudly beeps and requires you look back at the road. If you don't look at the road, or with enough instances of this, it will suspend your autopilot privileges until you put it in park and back in drive.
https://reprints.theygsgroup.com/cr/reprints/FordBlueCruise....
Per Musk himself[1]: “The data is unequivocal that Autopilot is safer than human driving by a significant margin”
Also Musk famously overrepresented in a promotional video[2]
The worst part about this is that I think Elon genuinely believes that this is correct. And that is a huge problem that creates complacency. He is already benefitting from convincing some portion of the public of this view.
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/17/magazine/tesla-autopilot-... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-19/elon-musk...
> To ensure our statistics are conservative, we count any crash in which Autopilot was deactivated within 5 seconds before impact, and we count all crashes in which the incident alert indicated an airbag or other active restraint deployed.
Focusing on single incidents will pull at your heartstrings, but each incident is one in a sea of data that shows an overall improvement despite isolated heart-breaking incidents as a result of our inability to create a perfect system.
Although I agree that his "tweets" are garbage and his cult mentality/god-like demeanor puts a lot of false confidence in people (who are likely a majority of those paying the $200/mo for beta), not to mention that thousands of people won't consider buying a Tesla due to his involvement. Chances are Tom Zhu will take over eventually.
0: https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/... from https://tesla.com/vehiclesafetyreport
Autopilot doesn't even stop at a red light, no Tesla owner thinks it's more capable than human.
This is exactly the problem: consumers are confusing Autopilot and FSD. The part where liability comes in is that confusion is not accidental, but rather a direct and deliberate product of Tesla’s marketing around these products.
Even normal collision avoidance systems cannot easily detect a semi truck sideways, because semi trucks and trailers in NA aren't required to have side skirts and protection bars. This won't happen in EU because all their trucks have mandated side skirts and bars. So when the car hits it the occupants are protected through the air bags and crumple zones.
The objective should be to prevent severe bodily harm or loss of life to the occupants in the event of a collision, with/without an avoidance system.
Find out why trucks in NA don't have mandated side skirts. Who's lobbying against it ?
If they really want to talk about lack of proper safeguards in autopilot they could've investigated many other reported scenarios like Teslas suddenly steering into the opposing lane, dividers. There are also reports of their system behaving erratically when the road slopes up into the horizon.
You know what can detect a semi truck sideways? Human eyes.
Collision detection systems are meant to trigger far later anyway, potentially after it's already too late. Side skirts would be helpful for sure in reducing fatalities in the event of a collision, but better still is avoiding the collision in the first place.
This kind of response is extremely condescending: "this is a poorly researched article because it didn't focus on the aspect of the story that I find most important." It's a perfectly valid approach to focus on the fact that Tesla's marketing of their "fancy cruise control" (their lawyer's words) causes people to trust it with their lives in unsafe ways, even when it's apparently incapable of something as simple as seeing the broad side of a semi truck. If you think the lack of side skirts is such an important issue, write your own article on it, don't cast aspersions on someone else's article.
We do not just rely on just one system to keep us safe on the road, but multiple systems. Road design, trucking regulations, the software or lack thereof, human elements, all contribute to our safety.
I'm sure there are plenty of other things we can learn from this incident, but they're not lazy for not focusing on them in this piece.
If the article is really about marketing issues with autopilot, they are many more avenues to explore, like how they're actually not allowed to call it "Autopilot" in Germany (try to find the word "Germany" in this article).
They're emphasizing the point that the man's family is trying to make in court. That's hardly exploiting someone else's tragedy, it's telling their story.
The article also focuses on the irresponsible mixed messaging coming from Tesla.
https://www.truckinginfo.com/10138132/underride-legislation-...
This sentence seems to be saying that skirts and protection bars are the reason that self driving cars cannot see these vehicles. Is that really true? Is it a conclusion you've come to on your own, or is it some kind of research or something? It seems like the crux of your whole post, but is absent.
2011: https://youtu.be/bT3G-kcKN70
Obviously this isn't hard to detect with full LIDAR systems in self driving cars because they are on the roof and you have full depth information. This is why I do not mention "self driving cars" in my parent comment.
One automotive radar I’m familiar with, the Bosch MRR [1], lists a vertical FOV of ±15 degrees, and a 300 m maximum detection range. Assuming the sensor is mounted perpendicular to the ground at 0.5 m high, it should be able to see the top of a 13’6” semi trailer from ~15m away all the way up to its full range.
Teslas don’t have radar anyway, so of course this wouldn’t have helped, but an AEB radar that can’t see the top of a semi truck isn’t very useful.
[1] https://www.bosch-mobility.com/en/solutions/sensors/front-ra...
Modern tech is changing that, but most collision prevention systems of today will not prevent this type of accident. Yet another reason to make guards mandatory. There are thousands of underride crashes and hundreds of deaths yearly, you only hear about the “automated driving” ones because it brings more clicks.
Can you please provide some sources for your claims?
https://www.ti.com/lit/wp/spry312/spry312.pdf shows how 24ghz radar, the most common until recently, has resolution measured in half-meter increments
https://www.kiforte.com/fca_radar-656.html Kia manual showing how the radar cone only covers a height of 1.2 meters in front of the car
These radar sensors project a very wide beam, they can't see much right in front of the car. For example, there was a car reviewer on YouTube that recently put ultrasonic parking sensors against a camera-based Tesla, and they perform about the same, with the camera slightly better in some situations because it's looking from above - the bumper-mounted radar cannot see objects in the ground right beneath it. Honda also just added a camera in their latest generation collision avoidance system, to cover a wider range of situations.
And that is not specifying the cone/detection range of the radar? It is just the work area to keep clear while performing an alignment - otherwise the horizontal range of the sensor would be near useless
Ultra sonic is not radar, and using radar cars regularly will follow things 10s of meters away. Seeing a semi with them is not a problem.
Parking is not collision avoidance- and using cameras for it is dumb. They don’t work in fog snow or adverse conditions that radar will
You are making up statistics now
And because camera’s improve safety in some situations when used in conjunction with radar?
That point is meaningless in a discussion about Tesla who removed radar entirely and the point being made here “cameras alone are not as good as radar” not “radar plus camera is better then radar”
How so? You're trying to say that if they've kept radar this accident could not happen, and I'm showing you this is not necessarily true. Do you have any sources to back up the idea that radar-based collision-avoidance systems can prevent this type of crash? The data says otherwise.
Here is a very extensive article on the subject, and it gives a much higher estimate (400 deaths/year): https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/trucks-underride-...
That was the 'do your own research part', honestly there is a ton of data online about everything we discussed here. You cannot expect someone to provide sources for everything they say while all you're offering is opinions.
19 fatalities in 8 years... less than 2.5 fatalities per year compared to 42,795 automobile crash fatalities in just 2022 in the USA. Has the WaPo or anyone analysed the break up of those fatalities to see what's causing them and what can be done easily to prevent at least 3 fatalies per year, since that seems to be the bar for going to the effort for such deep and painstaking analysis in the article?
Or would that not get enough clicks(including on HN) to warrant a story even if it eventually leads to saving way more lives?
Autopilot deaths vs all car crash death? When Tesla is <1% of cars on the road? And that 19 is just autopilot not all involving a Tesla, the stat your comparing to??
That's not even counting the number of lives potentially saved by AutoPilot because human drivers cause 43K/deaths a year.
That is a HUGE problem and 100% where regulation should be focusing.
https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jun/15/tesla-us-car...
What sort of camera or lenses are they using that causes something to appear 20 feet underground or 20 feet in the sky?
It doesn't help that they also chose to avoid using lidar or radar, because Musk was adamant that if human eyes can do it with just visual light then his computers would too.
Anyone more knowledgable know whether that's true?
I'm curious how much it's relying on object recognition via cameras vs. the more traditional radar based foward collision braking that are standard on "dumb" modern cars.
...or in other words, would a "dumb" modern car still fail in the same scenario?
Autopilot is "just" an adaptive cruise control with line assist. It is not self driving. Of course it is going to crash when you are cruising at high speed and a semi suddenly rolls across the street. It also doesn't stop for stop signs or red lights, those are known limitations.
We can proceed into the discussion whether it is okay to call such a system 'autopilot'. One side will say that autopilot (also in airplanes) means driver's assist, not self driving. The other side will say that a common person thinks it means self driving and therefore it is misleading. But I think this terminology was debated to death on hacker news.
I'm happy to see more reporting like this now that Teslas are increasingly available as short-term rentals (e.g. Hertz's Tesla fleet). Meaning there's now a whole lot of Tesla drivers on the road with only a few days experience driving the machine. Very small chance car rental drivers read the manual or do any research on the car before driving it.
But I agree the issue has been debated to death on HN specifically. That said I think Tesla's PR would vehemently disagree with your description of autopilot being adaptive cruise control with lane assist. (If Tesla actually called it that, everyone would be happy)
Wanna guess what the odds are the person has a smart phone and defaults to answering such questions by searching google/youtube for a video clip showing how it's done?
Let's not act like "the manual video" is the only way to find such information...
> Current Autopilot features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous.
Because autopilot is not autonomous and no one claims it to be. It e.g. cannot solve crossroads or react to traffic lights.
So I guess he either said that about FSD (which would still be questionable but at least not nonsense) or he meant that drivers using autopilot assistance have in general less crashes than drivers who don't use it.
Again, no Tesla owner thinks autopilot is full autonomy, since it very clearly isn't. I don't know if you have ever used it, but you would find out after driving a few meters.
Also right here, in this case, we have a Tesla owner who seemed to think it was, and is dead.
And regarding the victim – nah, he knew full well, he was just careless. Many drivers are.
https://www.tesla.com/en_eu/models
Reading this, without any other context or knowledge about their capabilities, it does sound like the car can control itself and pilot itself automatically. The name is disingenuous and misleading, so no wonder people think the car can steer, accelerate and brake by itself even though in cases like this, it did neither.
"...statisticians have pointed out serious analytical flaws, including the fact that the Tesla stats involve newer cars being driven on highways. The government’s general statistics include cars of all ages on highways, rural roads and neighborhood streets. In other words, the comparison is apples and oranges."
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2022-12-27/tesla-stop...
Independent source?
Google found this claim "According to the report, Tesla cars with Autopilot turned on are much safer than cars driven by people. In Q4 2022, there was only one crash for every 4.85 million miles driven."
Here is an article that discusses the safety of driverless cars. https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/09/are-self-driving-cars-a...
In any case, I assure you Tesla's autopilot is vastly beyond a teenager in their "second driving lesson." Driving lessons! How quaint! As if these are obligatory prior to being "allowed on the road" everywhere!
Simply darling.
Not in several US states, including where I live
> alcohol
Most states legally allow BAC up to 0.08, which is too high for someone expected to make split second decisions
> aggressive driving
Maybe there's laws against it but never seen it enforced. Aggressive driving is extremely common here.
And you say we don't allow these things to happen on public roads?
I’m not buying that this issue is only about psychopathic business people.
Neither domain nor pay grade leave room for “professional” excuses here.
Oh and yes “even” interaction design including nomenclature / wording used to fall under engineering considerations / vetting as well.
For a “software” car the interaction on the whole is terribly designed. UI out of immediate view, low contrast, distracting, etc. I was appalled how bad the experience was driving a Tesla over a recent short vacation (2022 Model 3).