I have always found the "math tax" line silly. I've never understood why "math tax" people assume that the only utility that a lottery ticket provides is the expected value of the payout. Is a ten dollar ticket to a spy movie a waste of money since there is little likelihood that watching it is going to get me a job with some OGA?
And above all there is gambling, the cheapest of all
luxuries. Even people on the verge of starvation can
buy a few days' hope ('Something to live for', as they
call it) by having a penny on a sweepstake.
This lottery only garnered so much attention because of the high jackpot, however even that was an anomaly. For most people who pay the lottery repeatedly, yes, it is a 'tax'; however many people who are more than capable of figuring the odds, still decided to play this jackpot - if only for the chance of winning.
Apologies for bad grammar, on a 48 hour day and my 2 cups of coffee isn't jump-starting my brain.
But lotteries also attract people who just don't get the numbers. People who can't afford to be spending 10, 20, 50 dollars on lotteries. That's a problem.
Dan Kahneman's book "Thinking Fast and Slow" is good reading for anyone who thinks that only stupid people feel the urge to play the lottery. It's more subtle than that, and worth understanding because these biases affect all of us in many important decisions.
Note that the lottery has about the same expected return as insurance (around 50% I think), and I've always bought insurance for risks I don't want to cover personally. Is overpaying to cover downside risks "smart" but overpaying for big upsides "stupid"? I don't have an opinion either way. If I consider the question, I can't tell if my own opinion would be more informed by my knowledge of psychology and statistics, or by my attitudes about prudence and waste.
Most people absolutely do not think this way. The thinking of the average person is more social, more concerned with ritual, more qualitative, and less quantitative. Their friends are talking about it, the number is big, people are going in on ticket pools together, they fantasize, and some of the affect of that fantasizing transfers to their goal-seeking behavior. Not fully appreciating that they can refer to solid math on this, they adapt their attitude and expectations to the cues of those around them.
A lottery is just a random number generator. A startup is blood, sweat and tears...and if I sweat just a little more we can beat the odds.
Reminds me of a bumper sticker: "Don't steal. The government hates competition."
I haven't followed much of his other work, but this rings true.
Here's a hint: there's more to the mathematics than odds.
It's about expected return, barrier to entry, and the consequences of not doing something. Odds are only a small part of the equation.
It is really a form of entertainment and escapism. Someone could do an interesting photo series of people at booths (when there is a big jackpot, not the regular regulars).
Day dreaming and lottery entering, both useless/damaging in excess - maybe ok in moderation.