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I appreciate the rigour, but it sounds like the argument is just "I did stop but you didn't see it"

I think it's "You can't prove it didn't happen this way."

Certainly not beyond a reasonable doubt.

Note that in the USA, civil lawsuits are determined based on the standard "preponderance of evidence" rather than "beyond reasonable doubt". That is, "P(guilty | data) > 0.5" instead of "P(guilty | data) > 0.999".

Therefore, don't try this in small claims court.

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