> I'm not sure it's fair to say that BLAKE2 is more widely used overall
Ah, maybe my experience is biased then. I keep coming across BLAKE2 implementations, but rarely hear so much as people considering to use SHA-3 somewhere. If anyone has actual numbers on this, that would be interesting.
It would be good if SHA-3 is being used because then chip makers have a reason to bake it into their hardware, which is exactly where the biggest gain over SHA-2 is expected. If that happens, and all else being equal (no cracks appear in Keccak), I'd be surprised if BLAKE2 remains as popular!
> you don't know a priori how large of a security margin you need
True, so this can be argued to be an educated guess at first. But then confidence increases over time. It seems to be expected that, more than 20 years later, people aren't considering Serpent anymore. Is it because it wasn't chosen as AES? Certainly partially, but BLAKE2 (I'll admit it does seem like an outlier) likely will still be talked about in the future so standardization is not the only factor.
I didn't see actual benchmarks, but Serpent sounds at least three times slower than Rijndael for, by now, no tangible benefit. What would be interesting is if there were AES competitors that are also fully unbroken and are more efficient than Rijndael, or easier to implement, etc.