Argentina's Economic Catastrophe: How Bad Policies Destroyed a Once Rich Country [video]
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It was Turkey's undoing and it is Argentina's undoing.
The thing is. You constantly hear on HN or Reddit how the Fed is printing money. Except what is meant by that "anything the central bank does that loosely has to do with money". That imprecise terminology puts too many very different things into one category and treats them equivalently. However, they aren't the same.
There is a one shot irreversible way of "printing money" which just increases positive balances. Once the money is in the economy, there is no mechanism to remove it. The most common implementation is to print physical bills. There is no limit to this and a government can do it indefinitely until hyperinflation sets in. You see this type of "money printing" in the memes, where Jerome Powell is literally operating a money printing press. Except this doesn't actually happen at the scale you think it does in the USA, it does in Argentina. They have literally run out of printing press capacity and need to print their money in France now.
What does the US or the EU do differently? First of all, QE is a reversible way of "money printing". For every dollar entering the economy, there is the ability to remove dollars from the economy. The Fed buys treasuries from the large commercial banks, but it can also sell treasuries back. Secondly, the central bank cannot force the treasury to issue more bonds, nor can the treasury force the central bank to buy more bonds. Thirdly, commercial banks only buy treasuries, when there is literally nothing better on the market. This arrangement called QE, that is simplistically depicted as a single guy doing everything is wrong. It takes three parties each following completely different objectives. Finally, what the central bank does is make it easier to fund treasuries by making them more liquid, which has been described by Jerome Powell as merely changing the duration of treasury bills. Any treasury bond that is issued as a result of a commercial bank buying treasuries to sell to the central bank still has to be paid back. In other words, all QE does is make your bank account an "investment fund" for the government. You still have to put money in your bank account for all of it to happen. It is no different from buying stocks or getting a certificate of deposit.
Since every deposit is canceled out by an equivalent debt, the expectation is that the impact of additional money creation is neutral to inflation over the long run. Of course in practice the central bank targets mild inflation but in a vacuum it would be possible to have no inflation at all.
So my suggestion is quite simple. The solution for Argentina is to let the central bank be in charge of "money printing" and get rid of all political influence on it.
1. Bond issues with regulatory changes of how much banks need to have 2. Change bank reserve requirements (the capital they need to have in reserve) 3. Change tax rates 4. Change interest rates (higher interest reduce demand of short term debt, for instance credit cards)
Interesting comment (all of it). However, and with all due respect, it sounds like what an economist would say.
Anyone: Kindly post a list of ten billionaires or moguls of industry who have degrees in economics.
Last time I looked, that's an empty set. There are none.
Economists are fantastic about launching into complex explanations of everything, and yet, if I had to trust someone with my money the last thing I would do is give it to an economist. They don't know what they are talking about.
This suggestion about Argentina is a perfect example of this. Having lived there, I can tell you that what you are proposing as "simple" is in a range between impossible and ridiculous.
One of the problems with Americans --if I were to generalize-- is that we are not taught anything about the failures in the histories of nations, particularly those in our own continent. Nobody learns from success before first learning from failure.
I have always --for decades now-- referred to Argentina as "A time machine for the United States". Everything you see happening in the US today and going back a number of years has happened in Argentina multiple times over time.
In more general terms, this is true of all of Latin America combined.
Except for those of us who have spent a non-trivial amount of time outside of the US, the rest of our population is utterly ignorant of history and culture outside their own cities. This it terrible. And this is reflected in the way the population of the US votes. Which is to say, they elevate stupidity to a virtue.
Everything happening in the US today has happened elsewhere. We know exactly what the outcomes could be. None of it is good. This is not a formula for excellence, growth and self-reliance. The outcome will not be pleasant.
I wonder who will sing "Don't cry for me USA" in the musical?