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throwaway4good

In the 80es the us and Japan fought a tech and trade war very similar to the us china tech war that is going on today.

A war that Japan decidedly lost.

Here is an article from Chinese state media drawing the parallels:

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2019-07-11/Lessons-from-U-S-Japan...

What can we learn from U.S.-Japan trade war of 1980s?

It is true that the ongoing trade war between China and the U.S. is different from the one between the U.S. and Japan in the 1980s, but the two trade wars do have a lot in common. First, both involve the world's largest and second-largest economies; second, China is the country with the largest trade surplus with the U.S., the spot was held by Japan during the 1980s; third, China is highly dependent on the U.S. market, so was Japan. The U.S. approach and the intensity of the trade wars are also more or less the same.

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I don't think the tech war is the full explanation for the decline of Japanese tech; the failure to focus on software is a big one and seems to be due to internal factors such as conservatism and business models tied to sale of hardware.

However when the US combines it industrial interests with its state apparatus it is a formidable force; media described the Japanese society as authoritarian, bitter and racist - eager to get back the Americans after world war 2 - with the everyday Japanese being mindless warrior drones in a strict hierarchy. (For examples of this sentiment see the movies Black Rain or Rising Sun - or lookup the tragic death of Vincent Chin - a Chinese mistaken for being Japanese).

The US justice system ran a series of entrapment campaign targeting Japanese firms. And there was buy-american campaigns and extra tariffs were put on Japanese imports.

Ultimately the Japanese yielded. The plaza accord fixed the Yen at a very high price point hampering Japanese exports. And quotas were set for US exports to Japan and Japanese car factories were setup in the US.

And then in 90es you had the rise of now competitative tech firms from South Korea and Taiwan.

>the failure to focus on software is a big one and seems to be due to internal factors such as conservatism and business models tied to sale of hardware.

It's the same in Germany. Up until 10 years ago or so, they still thought the future of their economy will be selling more diesel engines to everyone. Today Germany is still the world's leading exporter of diesel engines, but how long can that cow be milked until they realize a significant part of their economy is living on borrowed time?

It's what you get when your majority wealth holders, politicians and business leaders are well past their retirement and don't care about the changing world around them, don't care to empower the youth in wealth generation, gate-keeping it all for the existing gentry.

but how long can that cow be milked until they realize a significant part of their economy is living on borrowed time

Oh, they know it. When I lived in Germany 5-10 years ago, this issue was regularly discussed in the media. Some companies do try to adapt. E.g. Bosch traditionally delivered a lot of diesel-related tech, but they are also investing a lot in batteries and fuel cells. E.g. a large number of eBikes in Europe (probably a large majority even) use Bosch motors and batteries.

Only time will tell if it's enough. Of course, companies will try to stretch the transition as much as possible so that they'll have time to catch up.

and there is SAP

What about it?

Another article that shows the similarities in mindset from the time is this one from 1987, it's quite funny how similar it reads to stuff published today.

https://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1987...

This is interesting and.. quite different in one very important key way:

"Are the Japanese picking our brains?'' a congressional staffer asks. ''Yes. They're doing it very well. They're doing it legally. The question is whether we have a two-way street"

The Japanese were also accused of and successfully trailed for industrial espionage.

If they were successfully trialed, that means they weren't doing it well enough. They got caught.

Every nation does that. US likely does it less than most others, primarily because others have more to catch up.

> In the 80es the us and Japan fought a tech and trade war very similar to the us china tech war that is going on today.

Fundamental difference between these two trade wars is that US had then and still has now military presence in Japan while none in China. Japan has a somewhat limited sovereignty that affected how they could fight the trade war.

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