Volkswagen cuts jobs as demand for EVs plunges
fortune.com
fortune.com
All new cars spy on you (well most do), but EV's are completely software driven and seem to be more intrusive. I want a car I can connect to the internet when I want to for updates and that is it. I also want android auto and the apple one for my wife, I do not want a proprietary (Tesla) entertainment system.
I want right to repair. It is my car if I spend that much on it, I want to do to it whatever I want.
I want all the equipment in the car to work when i purchase it and no monthly fees (I get it for XM Radio, I am talking like seat heaters and such).
For some reason it also irritates me Tesla can increase mileage with a flip of a switch (Like they were going to do in Florida for a hurricane a while back). So you are telling me they could of been build with smaller batteries and save money and the environment, but they were not so you could have a software upgrade (or was that a monthly payment as well). Also the fact Tesla can remote disable my vehicle, and purchased upgrades do not transfer to the new owner.
I can probably go on and on with my whining, but that is why i still have 2 gas guzzlers and a motorcycle (newest vehicle is 2008, 2005 Honda van has 270,000 miles on it). They are paid for an yes a little maintenance here and there but that is not enough to make me spend $30k + on an electric vehicle.
If you charge and discharge a lithium ion cell from 4.2V to 2.75V, you might get 250 full cycles. If you stop charging at 4V and call that 100%, and stop discharging at 3.2V, you might get 2000 cycles before capacity is reduced.
Phone and laptop manufacturers prefer to burn the battery out in 2 years, car manufacturers want to sell bigger packs and are afraid consumers will rebel if a BEV needs a replacement battery at 100k miles.
Neither, for reasons unclear to me, allow the owner to make that decision.
“At this charge level, the battery will degrade to x kWh after y cycles”.
Is there literally an almost 10x difference in the number of full cycles? Where can I read more about this?
I really wish cell phones and computers came with an adjustment to max cell voltage. Cutting even 10% capacity can double your cycle life. Some do, but it's a hodgepodge and not standard.
https://batteryuniversity.com/article/bu-808-how-to-prolong-...
Having said that, this resource does not seem to support the magnitude of the numbers in LeifCarrotson's comment that I was replying to. First, I did not see a relationship between voltage and Depth of Discharge (seems unlikely to be linear, especially given table 4), which is what the page seems to mostly talk about. Second, comparing 4.2V to 4.0V in table 4 suggests a 4x difference in the number of cycles, not a ~10x difference. Figure 6 also seems relevant and suggests maybe a 2x difference.
Pull 4x from one table and 2-3x from another and it would probably put you somewhere in the 10x range. Though I'm not sure it would be strictly multiplicative.
On Macs you can get something called AlDente which I use. Works quite well, free version https://apphousekitchen.com/
All of them per Mozilla's recent report:
https://foundation.mozilla.org/en/privacynotincluded/categor...
Having used Carplay recently after few months in Tesla I couldn't believe how crap it was. Can't pinch and zoom map, can't use maps on your phone while you navigate (how do I add additional stop without using screen), it wouldn't connect about 10% of drives. Overall UX is feels about a decade behind - a bit like OEM systems before Carplay.
Edit: actually I can't tell if thats their cheapest car, VWs website sucks on mobile so I gave up. You'd think it'd be easy to just show the prices
https://www.bls.gov/ooh/healthcare/registered-nurses.htm
https://www.bls.gov/ooh/Education-Training-and-Library/Kinde...
https://www.bls.gov/ooh/education-training-and-library/middl...
https://www.bls.gov/ooh/education-training-and-library/high-...
A CNA (the second most common "nurse") most assuredly does not earn more than the average High School teacher, let alone one with any sort of seniority or departmental/administrative responsibilities. An APRN probably earns more than any blue collar field as it's a decidely high salaried white collar position.
What most people mean by 'nurse' is an RN (registered nurse)
Because you represent 100%, or even a significant minority, of Americans. /s
> What most people mean by 'nurse' is an RN (registered nurse)
No, what you mean is that what most people encounter are RNs.
The people that encounter CNAs almost definitely consider them nurses.
Using the VW filters, the only electric that I see is the ID.4 SUV starting at $39k.
Edit: Just went to Honda and the cheapest electric options are a CR-V hybrid at $29.5k or the Accord Hybrid at $32k.
Honda is also recognized as being one of the best motorcycle manufacturers in the world as their motorcycles are regarded as being the most reliable.
Demand for Tesla EVs is... booming. Tesla sold 83% more cars in the most recent quarter than in the same quarter a year ago.[a]
[a] https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/...
The HN title is: Volkswagen cuts jobs as demand for EVs plunges
Not sure why the difference but the article cites Tesla demand of one of the key reasons the demand "is plunging"
They have thousands of model ys with discounts on their website as they are waiting to be sold at a dealership.
That not even including all the huge promotions on the model 3.
I wouldn't say Tesla isn't at least slowing down based on their nearly 3 month old earnings report.
https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/modely
More accurate on the S/X to say they're not enough demand in RHD. Same reason they're not available in Australia.
But 3 and Y seem to be doing well, despite the boss's attempts to dissuade buyers.
The Model Y is the top seller in Europe, California, and other large markets.
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-model-y...
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1139959_pickups-aside-t...
https://qz.com/tesla-model-y-best-selling-ev-in-china-2023-1...
> Volkswagen's all-electric car sales increased even faster, reaching roughly 94,800 units in Q2 - nearly 52 percent more than a year ago. [1]
[1] https://insideevs.com/news/678768/volkswagen-electric-car-sa...
https://www.thedrive.com/supercars/4626/scientists-tell-us-w...
https://www.citnow.com/us/blog-us/building-emotional-connect...
Tesla models are a somewhat starter, too few options in look
and then the price
and its a weird quagmire, the people that can afford to live in dense high cost of livings cities are the exact target audience for EV’s but have the most perplexing and inconvenient charging arrangements, while suburban homeowners are like “I just slow charge everynight to an AC outlet in my garage, you’ll never notice the range, its not an issue bro” completely oblivious about the problem
then once the harmonized charging network takes off, its not even clear if the electric grid can handle it, which isnt my problem for sure, but funny to think about. solve this issue and the next one comes quickly
seems like they’ll both happen at the same time
How fast does a Tesla charge via a regular AC outlet?
I eventually upgraded to a Wall Connector for Level 2 charging (40 amp circuit) which charges about 10x faster (40miles / hour). This was much more convenient but not completely necessary.
Just one anecdote, but I live in Seattle and every garage space in my building has a Level 2 charger available.
I suspect that is the case for most higher-end new construction these days.
and there’s about 3 superchargers in this building, 3 in the last building, a couple slow chargers
emails to management about installing more are deadends
2016 construction
cant tell whats in other buildings but this is a steep bell curve from convenience to none
2020 hardly counts as "these days"
[1] https://www.motor1.com/news/688040/used-cars-more-expensive-...
Why does so many people act like the bigger a car is, the better?
The pendulum for new versus used has swung far in the direction of new cars, compared to a decade ago. The caveat is that it might take 6 months to get a new car due to inventory issues. I think used is much more expensive because it’s nearly the only option, regardless of cost, for folks who need a car this week.
VW once had quite a lot of brand loyalty, because they made good products and changed them incrementally, according to engineering decisions. That's not true now, with so many different styles being made available that it's hard to keep track, with odd finishing decisions (those horrid screens on the dashboard make it anything but a drivers' car). Heck, I saw a video of a test drive that talked about the gear shifter coming out of its attachment as the driver made an aggressive shift. I drove VWs for years, and I never one thought the gear shifter would come lose.
It seems like MBAs are making decisions at VW, and not driving enthusiasts.
Here's a thought for VW: electrify the car that made you so much money for so many years (the plain golf) and see what happens to your bottom line.
Plus, (a) reviews for the electric VW aren’t impressed, (b) [charging] network matters, (c) pay the VW “premium” for first-gen tech? Seems like a poor bet.
Yes, the US would never, ever...
Oh, wait! They did:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voluntary_export_restraint#198...
https://www.jec.senate.gov/reports/99th%20Congress/The%20Leg...
I suspect there's another reason for the cuts, but the following is just BS. I'm hoping someone knows something substantive - a paper, a book, a term for it, etc.:
I often see a new management philosophy of hyper-aggression and disdain for all but money, treating labor (and nursing home patients, healthcare patients, journalism, students, etc.) as commodities to squeeze rather than contributors (and human beings and social goods) to value; treating profit as an outcome of squeezing every dollar/euro possible from everything rather than innovating productivity for society. No, it hasn't always been that way; remember Silicon Valley leaders treating their employees with respect, with flat hierarchies, 20% time dedicated to personal projects, etc etc.
The law long ago turned on workers largely too. HR takes managements side unless the manager is literally breaking the law and the worker has an airtight case with evidence and especially witnesses. So to be an employee means you need an understanding of the law on par with an entire HR department or learn to always say “yes.”
The problem is, the leader of a new product direction has not just perfected the new tech, but identified and grown a new market segment and captured a new customer base.
The followers not only have to catch up with technology, but find new market segments with latent customers for their version of the new technology. After the original company scooped up all the low hanging market fruit.
That is a sneaky double whammy they don't plan for when they initially wait things out.
It doesn't really have implications for other EV plants or other countries.
On top of that, many cars are hard to get. Low production, backlogged demand. This means fewer deals on finance and lease rates.
I remember 0% lease and finance rates, 15 years ago when the interest rate was this high, because car companies wanted to move product. But now they have no need, not with them unable to supply demand.
So my point is, I decided to keep my current car longer. Rates matter.
What is this based on? I am not so sure if I believe that. Canada's inflation rate jumped to 4% last month (although a lot of that was apparently due to an increase in gasoline prices).
Target inflation for the Bank of Canada is around 2% yearly. The bank did not increase rates the last round, and inflation is dramatically down from a year ago.
It wants to ensure it doesn't over correct.
Of course, the future is an unknown, but inflation is about half what it was a year ago.
Heck, there has been some talk of deflation! A lot of stuff peaked due to supply, and those prices could drop dramatically.
This indicates a soft landing, but I agree, we'll see. Anything could happen.
Like companies assuming piracy is equal to a lost sale. It might be true in some cases, but not all. Also, most late model EVs offer a couple hundred miles on a single charge.
So, once again the only country to manufacture cutting edge technology goods at scale and at a reasonable cost ends up being China.
The geopolitical landscape when China's EV domination fully expends will be something else entirely...
It was the first generation of EV.
When should I plan it's obsolescence?
What is your experience with EV expiration that leads you to your conclusion? Please inform me in any form other than links to idle speculation by obviously biased parties like Motor Trend etc.
First generation of anything are overbuilt by modern mba product engineering practices. I have a 2011 Nissan Leaf that I hope to still be using in another 10 years.
I was referencing the battery production and lifetime. As well as the reasonable to expect overall lifetime and repair ability. How many decades do you expect to use it?
Given what goes into these batteries and the inability to recycle the components, sustainable is quite questionable. This is a stop gap that only solves a very specific metric, fossil fuels.
There is also an economic incentive to sell more stuff to a limited numbers of customers. Thats visible with most products, its just market forces so i dont expect EV to magically withstand that. We likely need actually more sustainable (as in designed for) but that goes counter to market forces.
edit: To give examples for the general trend, i have two saws from the same maker, the newer one with a difficult to replicate plastic clip holding the sawblade. Defect controller board for mid-bikes would officially mean replacing the motor. Printers and phones dont need to be mentioned. Given fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders you cant expect much else. New models are designed and need to be sold. Thats problematic given the materials used.
China has been building this sector for like 30 years.
While Europeans were so proud of their diesel vehicles and how clean they were and the Germany companies endlessly talking about hydrogen and green fuels. While Europe has basically no resource extraction related to batteries or much of any battery refinement for most of that period.
But now that this bears fruit for China the EU is like 'what what what, I though our brilliant hydrogen plan was gone work'.
For starters, Europe doesn’t have the Communist Party dictatorship that can arbitrarily fuck your business over on a whim with no possibility for recourse because the Party is judge, jury and executioner.
China is a scary place to do business if you’re not a huge multinational with leverage.
Do you owe debts for a business deal/partnership gone wrong? Congrats your creditors can have you banned from leaving the country until they are paid. Oops you weren’t even notified there would be a court hearing against you, so you’re not aware of the debt until you tried to board a flight. I hope you didn’t think you had any chance to appeal that bad decision because the courts will side with the local Chinese over the foreigner.
Oh and let’s not forget the Canadian Michaels’ ordeal.
欢迎来中国.
That is hilariously untrue. Even compared to your usual nonsense.
> If the car industry was given a democratic choice, it will pivot to hydrogen as the future.
In Germany the govenrment wanted to enact more pro-hydrogen polices and the car makers literally told them not to it was a waste of time.
And of course we had many periods, in the US, Europe and Japan where hydrogen was favored and pushed by the govenrment and a grand total of nothing came from it. The German government has spent 100s of millions on hydrogen cars alone, let alone other hydrogen projects. I don't even want to know how much Japan spent.
Reality is many of the subsidies world wide are not for BEV specifically but apply to lots of zero emission vehicles. You simply can't deal with the reality that hydrogen vehicles are pointless nonsense that no sane person would ever try push and BEV have trounced them in every way imaginable.
So lets see what all the hydrogen subsidies and clean vehicle subsidies have amount to:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E81i9OgWEAAcmSp?format=jpg&name=...
But that was from 2020, so you say that Hydrogen cars must have pickup up since then:
> Sales of Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCEV) in the light vehicle sector have declined by -25 % so far and stay below 20 000 units annually. Current sales are from 5 vehicle models and most sales are in South Korea and USA. We estimate their current population to ca 60 000 units.
and
> BEVs reaching 10 million units
But I'm sure the 10 million vs 20k is totally just government subsidies.
It really takes next level delusion to think hydorgen cars are the future. Even pretty much all the former pro hydrogen car makers have given up. Its positively laughable that you keep believing in this.
And of course, they are quietly sabotaging everything behind the scenes. There's a reason why there is a e-fuel exception, and why the UK sudden moved the deadline back 5 years. There is not much real support behind the scene. I expect the BEV mandates to be abandoned in due time.
Note that FCEV subsidies didn't really exist in the past, outside of tangential subsidies that targeted at all green cars. The real target would be refueling subsidies and deployment of infrastructure, which have only recently started to happen.
What you're doing is regurgitating the same anti-EV argument used against BEVs. Remember, BEVs were at nearly zero before the mid-2000s. And compared to the ICE market, it is still tiny and mostly irrelevant. The moment the government take hydrogen cars more seriously, it will take off.
It's also worth noting that diesel got to >50% of the market in Europe before rapidly dying off. It could easily happen to BEVs too. It is not a real, organic market. It is mostly due to subsidies and heavy-handed government mandates forcing companies to make them. Take that away and the market will disappear just like it did with diesel cars.
Finally, the tides are starting to turn. You are repeat claims that in direct contradiction to the OP itself. A sign you aren't even paying attention before spamming your BEV propaganda. People are starting to lose faith in BEVs, and the problems will get louder over time.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37258086
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37258071
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37253124
Second, you've been using HN primarily for ideological battle, which is not allowed here, and almost always on the same topic, which is especially not allowed here. This is a rule regardless of your ideology and regardless of your topic, because it's not what this site is for, and destroys what it is for.
Europe leads the world in legislation and regulation, both good and bad. Their labor laws are the strongest in the world. Manufacturing in Europe can't compete on price, and the price disparity will be significant, so they will regulate and tax imports.
Surprisingly, an ICE car is more intricate, and has more labour intensive parts that require a high skill labour force. Things like engine block manufacturing (and design), spark plugs, etc.
Battery EV are actually low labour - after all, motors are not "intricate", as they don't need to contain explosions!
I think that china has, prior to BEV, tried to reach the same level of car manufacturing as europe (ala germany), but has found that no matter what economic policies they put in place, the labour and value chain in china just cannot catch up to the well established ones in europe.
It actually makes sense that china abandon the ICE manufacturing sector, because the BEV sector at the time had no competition, and capitalism (and the innovator's dilemma) has prevented ICE car manufacturers from entering until they see the real demand - but by then, china has fully controlled the supply chain of critical components such as the batteries, minerals and capacity.
I do not believe that europe (or the US) can really catchup without a major shift in technology of the battery.
In reality, China's BEV strategy is going to be disrupted and will be wiped out. It is pursuing a dead end technology that few people want. It will only take a zero emissions technology that costs a lot less to finish off their BEV strategy.
Its funny how the EU is now 'investigating subsidies' in China.
China has been building this sector for like 30 years
While Europe has basically no resource extraction related to batteries or much of any battery refinement for most of that period.
And Europe has plenty of subsidies for their car industry, with the car industry being politically powerful.
> if China had so much time to build the sector.
Because its not just about cars, its everything from mine to the battery. And their policies weren't that anti-competitive, European and US car makers made a lot of money in China for quite a while and they didn't transfer much EV technology.
> let China pollute their land, air, water for clean energy!
Or lets actually take responsibility for the policy we have and act accordingly.
Subsidizing some technology or another isn't new.
Then, there are illegal subsidies: "export subsidies" or "import substitution." China, as a member of WTO, is prohibited from giving any subsidy contingent on export performance, or on the use of domestic over imported goods. So for instance, China's subsidies were only given to EVs with domestic batteries made by domestic companies over foreign companies -- even if they were made in China, since 2015. China forced out foreign competitors, eg LG Chem which had close to 50% of the Chinese EV battery market share prior to this now down to less 1%, despite being the world's largest EV battery maker outside China, and ensured that only their domestic champions received EV subsidies in a market where subsidies accounted for as much as 40% of new EV cost. This is all ok, so long as China never intends to sell their EVs over the water -- after all, it's their money. China's EV initiative however was geared towards exports and dominating the field. EV subsidies elsewhere are obviously legal b/c, unlike, China's, they don't violate those rules.
Because its not just about cars, its everything from mine to the battery. And their policies weren't that anti-competitive, European and US car makers made a lot of money in China for quite a while and they didn't transfer much EV technology.
While China has long dominated the metal refining/processing industry largely due to developed countries' aversion to pollution, China's EV resource acquistion/spree likewise didn't really start until 2010's.