I forget how far from industry HN can be sometimes.
What always happens is that people let their imaginations run away, both with what the technology can do, and with how people will adopt it instantly in masse.
If everyone you know is using AI, you're living in a bubble. I have one friend who thinks everyone is using AI, and the rest of my friends have only touched it superficially.
Generative AI is not a platform unto itself. In order to effectively leverage fine-tuned models, you need your data to be somewhat organized in the first place. The average enterprise struggles enormously with this and always will.
In short, I would bet on endemic platform providers (Google, MS, Adobe, SAP, etc) rather than standalone AI providers (OpenAI, startups). Who owns the data? That is where the value lies.