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adamjernst

Wow, the vehicle theft rate is almost 5 times higher in SF than NY:

http://newyork.areaconnect.com/crime/compare.htm?c1=san+fran...

Of course this was burglary or theft, not vehicle theft. But I wonder what makes for such an extreme difference.

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Hypothesis: Much lower car-ownership rate in NYC.

Sub-hypothesis: Less cars per-capita in NYC might mean the average car is more expensive and thus has stronger anti-theft features.

Edit: Climate could play a part too. I've never boosted a car, but I imagine it's more appealing in a balmy 60 degrees than sub-freezing.

Car ownership rate in NYC is under 45%.

Many of us who own cars are too lazy to move them every couple of days for street cleaning, so they are parked in attended garages or lots, which deters (though isn't a guarantee against) theft.

Some parts of NYC have higher theft rates that get lost when blended into the overall city rate. Brooklyn for example has a much higher theft rate than the rest of the city.

> Edit: Climate could play a part too. I've never boosted a car, but I imagine it's more appealing in a balmy 60 degrees than sub-freezing.

It was raining cats and dogs that night, terrible weather for someone conducting their trade outdoors.

Not sure if people who break into vehicles care much about the weather, though :)

There is also a strong counter-argument to thieves preferring bad weather. Basically, it goes: when you are a thief, you want to do your trade with as few witnesses as possible, and to obscure any visibility of your actions to the witnesses there are. So, if you are thieving outside, you want it to be at a time when others want to be inside, and/or can't see you. Largely this means at night. Better if the weather is gross, so people are less likely to go out. Better still if they can't hear you over the rain. (If you are robbing suburban homes, you want to do it in the afternoon, after lunch, when most people are gone at work, and before the kids get out of school. For this example, the crime statistics I've seen, and anecdotes from cops back up the theory).

It's very interesting to see hard data that confirms a general feeling I get when comparing walking down the streets of SF and of NY.

That feeling is one of the few things that makes me still prefer New York to San Francisco... I hope that gets fixed soon!

Interestingly, New York saw its car theft rate declare years after years since the 90s. San Francisco's theft rate also declined, but it does so rather unevenly.

Wonder what's the story there?

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=car+theft+statistic+san...

Off-topic: Wolfram Alpha is amazing. Cool find.

per-capita is meaningless, you want per registered car

Alone yes, you might however be able to say that it has meaning if you can show that the registered cars per capita stayed at the same level over that period.

I'm not positive that would be what you'd need to say that but It sounds right in my head, anyone have any better ideas?

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