Which of the World’s Hundreds of Thousands of Aging Dams Will Be Next to Burst?

One point not raised in this article is what precautions can be taken, something I'd strongly encourage.

Even where a specific government is grossly incapable, both individuals and outside actors in fact can anticipate and take steps to greatly reduce risks and harms from dam failures.

For starters, unlike numerous other mega-catastrophies, dams rarely fail utterly unexpectedly, both in the long term (problematic dams are problematic, often for decades, as in Derna, or Mosul, or Banqiao, or Vajont, or Teton, or St. Francis, or ...), or in the short term (severe weather events and dangerous geology and geography serve as triggers and amplifiers of risks).

Virtually all the risk comes in the initial flash flood and deluge itself. This risk is virtually completely mitigated by getting out of the way of and above the height of the flood. Knowing safe ground and/or creating evacuation facilities (strong construction, high walls, and out of the immediate water path) are both mitigations which are reasonably easily undertaken. Yes, vast areas may see property damage, but death, injury, and disease can be avoided.

Weather forecasting can predict dangerous storms often with up to a week's warning, and generally several days even where forecasting models perform poorly. Hours of advance notice can serve well. Radio and broadcast media remain effective for reaching large populations at low cost. Where local authorities fail to take these measures, foreign organisations, from broadcasters (BBC, VOA, DW, and commercial operators) to relief organisations (International Red Cross/Red Crescent) can both warn of and anticipate emergencies, warming up and pre-staging rescue and relief operations.

The second most vulnerable period is after the flood where people remain in damaged regions without infrastructure, most especially clean fresh water, sewerage capabilities, food, and medical care.

Note that unlike mass storms such as hurricanes, floods need not see wide-area evacuations. Rather than an entire county, state, or province, it's typically limited small settlements or specific neighbourhoods of larger cities which are most at-risk and which require evacuation. Moving only a few hundred metres may well be sufficient, or perhaps a few kilometres where a large flood-plain exists. Even in regions where transportation capabilities are limited, this is almost always possible.

The worst cases of course are where there are major habitations directly in the flood flow. Bakersfield, CA, beneath the Isabella Dam, where a major risk is earthquakes (classically not predictable in advance), would be a classic example. Here, specific evacuation centres and warning systems, as well as widespread and frequent civil defence preparadness, training, and education would be highly useful.

The remaining issues are long-term recovery, rebuilding, and yes, tackling problematic dams and removing those which cannot be rehabilitated or have past any useful function. Challenges, yes, but also not where major loss of life is a significant risk.