NASA says distant exoplanet could have rare water ocean, possible hint of life
theguardian.com
theguardian.com
2. Re the Dark Forest hypothesis: maybe. They will discover our radio in about 60 years (assuming that our broadcasting only started to be strong enough to notice 60 years ago). Then they might assemble something like a robotic attack army and send it over after, let's say 10 years. And if they are capable to send something half the light speed, then we might encounter our demise after 240 years more. So we still can enjoy our Earth 300 years or more if we don't destroy our livelyhood basis on Earth ourselves before that. Perhaps we could retaliate and send something back, but probably the odds are bad.
3. However there's the Loud Aliens And We Are Early hypothesis as well: maybe. There's life on that planet but not as advanced as ours. We will find more signs of life the next decades in that case. Then maybe send several robot probes. Contact could be possible after: 30 years of building the first probe, sending it over: 600 years (assuming we can reach 20% of light speed) and first reporting back 120 years, in total 750 years.
Caveat emptor: This is all speculation.
Why would they want to though? What do we have here that someone who could do the above couldn't get much easier otherwise?
Less mass and energy overall. You will still have to accelerate it to a significant speed though.
I think it is impossible to survive as an exterminationist species to the point of having non-trivial interstellar reach. If you (as a species) were that inclined toward destruction, then you would not survive.
The counter arguments of, “Well, look at us!” are not convincing to me. We might well be that destructive, but we certainly have not developed to the point of non-trivial interstellar reach. I am not even convinced yet that we will get to the point of intrasystem mastery much less interstellar reach before we destroy ourselves. I hope we can overcome our barbarity, but there is no guarantee.
That is a huge leap of faith and operating under a lot of assumptions not the least of which is that a completely alien intelligence would somehow operate in a utopian Age of Enlightenment and moral way and not in a way that we can’t even imagine or even understand because they are completely alien to us.
I’m of the opinion that intelligent life is probably extremely rare (in the one place where we know life exists it took 20+ million species and a full third of the age of the universe to make the single intelligent life we have…and we do our best on a regular bases to make ourselves extinct) and that is a damn good thing because I cannot see how intelligent alien life wouldn’t be completely hostile to other alien life and not immediately skeptical of the other’s motivations.
But fungi/protozoa are probably a better analogy... they're more generalists and would stand a better chance of being invaders. Against something totally alien, if it could survive or thrive in an animal, I'm skeptical our immune system would be worth much, but I don't know.
Also I would like to point out that the vast majority of planets we detect happen to be around red dwarf planets since we need 3 transits for a positive detection which would require years for larger stars. Additionally to do atmospheric spectroscopy the solar system needs to be within a perpendicular line-of-sight of our solar system.
So keep in mind the planets/solar systems we are studying do not represent the typical solar systems around exo K/G type stars.
If you think as an individual, then 600 years is dismaying.
Violence is undeniably primitive behavior.
It amazes me how many humans assume that other species would advance technologically to the point of interstellar travel while still holding on to primitive roots.
It's extra surprising from a community like HN where an abundance mindset is the status quo.
The other thing to consider is, we might perceive some actions as violence, while the other species may not view it at violence at all. We may simply be materials that can be reallocated for other purposes, just like how humans often view living things in our environment.
https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/22617/can-we-commu...
This misconception fuels the false "why are we alone" question that implies we would have detected intelligent life if it's there. Not so fast.
Only took 60 years from first flight to man on the moon.
300 years is plenty long time.
Suppose we crack true general artificial intelligence, nuclear fusion, ability to design self-assembling beings with DNA compilers, advanced material synthesis then we could very well launch a retaliating attack.
> the agency also hinted at even more remarkable possibility in the
> potential finding of a molecule called dimethyl sulfide (DMS), which
> on Earth is only produced by life.
Are there any other instruments or telescopes that could further investigate this? Or is JWST the only telescope instrumented to detect such molecules 120 LY far away?Science is amazing.
Unless 'it' left a long time ago and is already here.
I always feel the 'space is big haha no one can cross it' argument is weird due to always framing it in our own frame of reference. What if the hypothetical 'thing' is like a jellyfish and time isn't as big an issue, or an AI that definitely doesn't care about time. Or a bundle of fungus that doesn't necessarily care one way or another.
It’s just that when you return, at least 2000 years will have passed on earth.
This site also has a "Newton's universe" mode, which pretends that relativity doesn't exist. Interestingly, in that case you would take over 44 years!
[0]: https://www.omnicalculator.com/physics/space-travel?c=EUR&v=...
edit: souce as in something a regular average joe can make sense of haha
More broadly, the series Cosmos with Carl Sagan was excellent, and is worth a view. The bit about time dilation is at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWgEzxi_A0w . The more recent one with Neil Degrasse Tyson is also good (but while I enjoy both, I think I prefer the older one)
Takes a few million years to set up... but that's just a blink of an eye on cosmic time scales; a brief era in the galactic-scale lifespan of an advanced civilization. (The civilizations that don't do something like this don't live that long).
Annihilating planets takes a lot of energy. For example if our Sun goes supernova it will maybe kill all life on Earth, but the planet will still exist.
If you gather enough energy to potentially annihilate a planet in each star system in a galaxy - you won't need to worry about any civillization becoming a threat in the first place, because they won't have any energy left to become that threat :)
Then there're the problems with relying on autonomus system with such energy at its disposal, and the problems with dealing with genetic/cultural drift. What if your species diverges into several ones that start fighting each other - which one is the one that's supposed to be protected from the other? What if different parts of this system disagree?
Who gets to push updates to the code of this system? How do you supervise this? Imagine a military coup or constutitional crisis and you're the guy that keeps the ssh key :)
Are distant colonies that get independence and develop on their own a threat? Would the regions that want autonomy agree to this? Or if this technology exist - wouldn't it be used for wars inside that species long before they can start to worry about the so-far-uninhabited rest of the Galaxy?
Would they even survive long enough to create this?
Imagine Sumerians created such system on Earth and it wakes up after 5000 years and asks us for password in some dead language or else :) Now change that to 1 000 000 years.
In my opinion it's very unlikely something like this ever gets created simply because of all the coordination and trust issues, the energy and technology dependencies, the probability and severity of problems it can cause vs the problems it can solve.
Wasting significant percentage of energy of the galaxy and risking destroying it accidentally just to save yourself some diplomacy sounds like the ultimate tech solution to people problem :) And you're not really avoiding the diplomacy, you're just doing it upfront - internally. I'd be very surprised if there were no wars caused by someone trying to implement such idea.
Imagine writing a proposal to Congress or EU to start doing this :) And how Chinese and Russian would react.
It's taking a few million years to get from violent confused simians to violent confused simians with autonomous AI. But we're getting there.
Now we've been sending radio signals for several decades you have to begin to question if there's a civilisation out there maybe 10-100 light years away that may now be aware of us and have sent something our way which may be about to arrive.
There is an explanation for Fermi paradox that suggests maybe alien civilisations choose to be quiet or immediately wipe out other transmitting civilisations with speed of light weaponry.
Why? Well, if there's no way to have prior warning of an attack traveling at the speed of light your only defence is some combination of remaining hidden and extreme hostility towards other civilisations.
Might be posting on HN right now. Never know.
All your hypotheticals are not entirely unreasonable, but they are also so far beyond our current ability to test, that it becomes pretty futile to speculate, except as a source of entertainment.
Space is reaaaaaaaaaaaaaally big, much bigger than people really have a conception of. Bigger than I have a conception of, and I try really hard to understand how bad my conception of it is.
A space fungus from 120 light years away would presumably only reach us by almost 100% chance, which is something I am comfortable saying is almost 100% unlikely. This is true of most hypothetical threats.
Fantasies about aliens or AI coming here (or sending big rocks) to exterminate are as weird to me, as I image "space is big haha" is to you.
There is no reason for anyone even to try to cross interstellar distances, especially not for war. The expected gain will never be worth the cost, outside of some fantasy FTL-for-free engine, which is just that: fantasy.
But, it is fun to think about it all.
We made need to redefine intelligent life if we think of ourselves as the pinacle of intelligence or rather in the upper eschelons.
In the first two cases, we need to send a physical probe there. In the third case it might be enough, and much faster, to send communication signals there and get answers back. The third case is also arguably the most interesting.
2. The technology they use may be so advanced as to overcome any power problems.
That leaves radio communication, but the latest intel they have on us left earth around 1900. At that point we wouldn't have been able to receive anything from them. It's probably questionable if we would have picked something up had they sent a radio signal our way a week ago. Right now SETI might have a radio antenna pointed their way, but that won't last indefinitely, and these events are a bit hard to time from 120 lightyears away.
In my view it's better to stay away from the advanced civilizations
We'd be lucky to be treated like bugs.
As long as they don't treat us like we treat plants, it will be fine. I bet that that tomato didn't consent to be genetically raped with flounder's dna.
https://hubblesite.org/contents/news-releases/1996/news-1996...
Slightly different than #1 assuming 'no life' means it never evolving
I can imagine a billion-year old civilization in its last gasps. Maybe it was a beautiful peaceful and technologically advanced civilization. Maybe it appeared and died before encountering any other advanced intelligent life from outside it's solar system.
Then again maybe it is dead from a nuclear or other catastrophic type of war.
They'd have to either have advanced extremely slowly compared to us, such that a thousand years of our development are many millions of years of development to them or had some sort of extinction event that was so thorough as to render all of their stuff around other stars inactive (I guess maybe they might consider it extremely important to hide from developing civilizations though, in which case we probably can't even fathom what sort of hiding mechanisms they might have).
It's worth considering that with another century or two of development, assuming we don't face some sort of societal collapse, we'll definitely be capable of sending small probes to our nearby stars at large fractions of light speed. Given a couple thousand years without a collapse, we most probably can send self-replicating machines to colonize the galaxy like that. Even supposing that it takes us 100,000 years to get to that point, that's just 0.01% of a billion year old civilization's time.
If you were on the budget, Galileo would have never gotten money for a telescope.
With global resources we can do it easily but the people in charge of our countries wouldn't have a job if they didn't invent fake boogeymen to waste cash on instead.
We have plenty of starshot proposals that are incredibly cheap compared to other things: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breakthrough_Starshot
How do you propose getting a probe to something 120 light years away and getting an answer within a human lifetime, unless you're going for a ride on the probe? Do you have some new physics?
These are very real ideas with very real engineering designs by incredibly smart people. It's not sci-fi mate, we can actually do this with enough wherewithal.
So the next step would be to build better and better telescopes to observe these planets, learn about their composition, and inspire people to study and fund the sciences.
There are some proposals of how to build fast probes that could visit very close star systems that could maybe, maybe reach a the 4 LY to Proxima Centuri within a human lifetime. But 124 LY is so far that even the Starshot proposal would take nearly 800 years to receive data back.
So the short term solution (in the order of decades) is improve the observation capabilities. More observations with the JWST should give a better idea what the next iteration of a space telescope for this job should be and give some motivation of accelerating building such a telescope. JWST itself took decades to build and deploy. It would be remarkable, if an improved telescope could be deployed in a 10 year time frame. Of course, an operational Starship would help a lot with that, as a lot of effort for JWST was the complex deployment mechanism.
If there was life out there, similar to us - could we detect their radio and television signals over this distance?
Actual, viable, recognizable lifeforms of extra-solar origin changes the inputs to a lot of our ideas about where and who we are pretty substantially (also some rather unfortunate possibilities about the great filter).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonization_of_Europa#:~:text....