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Comment by corethree | Hacker News Reader

The goal should not be to expect doctors to use AI to assist.

The goal is to get AI to be superior to doctors such that AI replaces doctors.

AI should augment your skill such that the doctor is no longer needed. The problem with the US medical system is that they hold your life hostage then rip you off. Make no mistake people attribute this to complexity and other bullshit but the money ends up in the pockets of administrators and doctors.

You want to fix the system? Attack the root. Replace doctors.

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It’ll have to be better than today’s spicy autocomplete technology to do that, though. ChatGPT will never be in the driver’s seat; it can’t be trusted.

Yeah definitely. if anything chatGPT is the precursor to the thing that will eventually replace doctors.

But at the same time it's also the precursor to the thing that replaces programmers.

> at the same time it's also the precursor to the thing that replaces programmers.

It seems far more likely that the successors will create more programmers, not unlike the evolution of the elevator. Newer elevator designs didn't replace the elevator operator. They allowed anyone to become the elevator operator.

By programming I mean something separate from typing English and asking something to spit out code. If my manager asks me to code an app, is he programming or am I?

>Similar to the evolution of the elevator. Newer elevators didn't replace the elevator operator. They allowed anyone to become the elevator operator.

By "replace" I mean replace someones job. Similar to how the elevator made elevator operators unemployed.

> If my manager asks me to code an app, is he programming or am I?

In the right context, I would say that it possible that the boss is programming you and that you are, ultimately, both programmers. But even if we only want to think of programming in terms of computers, that is not a concern when it comes to a ChatGPT-like thing. It will almost certainly be of a computer.

> By "replace" I mean replace someones job. Similar to how the elevator made elevator operators unemployed.

The job is still there, but with an effectively infinite supply of workers having joined the market, that pushed the price for the work to zero. That left anyone wanting to be paid more out of the market.

In the same vein, if your employer found someone willing to do your work for a lower wage, fired you, and hired them instead, it seems fair to say that you were replaced, but was the profession replaced?

Anyway, fun analysis aside, understood.

  sed 's/doctor/programmer/g'

Yeah that's the downside of course. I still think US doctors and the entire US medical system unlike other occupations, deserves to be replaced.

But the free market is the one that makes the rules here. If it can be replaced, it will, whether it deserves to be replaced is irrelevant.

Mission accomplished, bit only if everyone can use it, and no one is in a position to gatekeep anyone else's access.

Which will never happen. Controlling access to power/information is too important.

Why would you expect "we have a better solution but we'll charge less for it" to be the outcome in a free market? That's just leaving money on the table.

Obvious. Open Source, Piracy and copying. A phenomenon of the free market combined with products constructed out of pure information.

Because of the extreme increase in competition.

Additionally keep in mind, this diagnosis was not made by a machine designed to be a "doctor".

The doctor part is a side effect. An emergent property. I can just imagine google running a powerful AI in the future and just using ads to fund the whole thing and the thing just completely demolishes the medical diagnosis industry just as an emergent side effect.

That's possible. Like they did to dedicated GPS/map hardware. Not sure Google's that bold any more, but somebody could.

You need a moat to keep that going for very long. Doctors have a regulated market in which to build moats, but as this is said to be a free market, what moat-suitable ground might there be?

Get yours certified by the AMA and have them make competitors illegal.

That would require a regulated market. The scenario was based on a hypothetical free market.

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