Yes, yes, no. Folks' perception of Substack/ Youtube/ Twitch aren't shaped by looking at 100% of the producers, or even 50% of the producers: folks are overwhelmingly focused on the top 10% (and narrower), so their perception is shaped by the disproportionate success of the few.
To rephrase, the bottom 50% of the production group do not have 50% of the audience -- they may not even have 5% of the audience. Their lack of success isn't being seen broadly enough to shape folks' perceptions.
Also, millions of people buy lottery tickets when only a handful win more than $20.
you're close. Ads don't make money, ads do.
To clarify: Being sponsored directly by an ad can make you almost as much money as tha ads you get from the Youtube system. So all those RAID SHADOW LEGENDS ads you see from gaming youtubers? Yeah, odds are even the tiny (10k subscriber) channels can make a few hundred off of that pitch.
Patreon is decent, but it's another stream of income you need to put work into to really pay off with. Those who treat it as a donation box don't get too much. Swag is really nice but you need a decent following first. You probably already make a decent side hustle from YT ads alone by the time you consider merch.