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it is 100% a union busting move. RTO was announced almost immediately after announcement of the union drive

What’s funny is that the calculus is still the same: your best people are going to leave and your worst are going to stay. Breathtakingly poor foresight.

I'm sure they will testify in court that the decision was completely coincidental.

Doesn't matter what they testify, the burden of proof is on them at this point to prove they would have done this anyway, independent of the unionization effort. Which, given that it was suggested to them by the union-busters they hired, is going to be difficult.

The test for such a burden shift is 1) effected employees took a protected action 2) the company knew about it 3) the employer didn't approve of the protected activity. 1 and 2 are trivially proven, 3 is proven by the company hiring union busters.