Texas just got closer to blackouts than it has since 2021. What happened?
kut.org
kut.org
This is... amazing. Not in a good way.
Not sure if this thinking is fully correct, but on its face it’s at minimum not completely absurd.
Also I think some of the Texas leadership is financially or emotionally invested in cryptocurrency.
(Residential customers are getting ripped off, honestly)
https://www.texastribune.org/2023/03/01/texas-power-market-p...
Imagine you own a factory that typically runs 24/7 and is part of the system's base load. There is a material cost for you to shut down production. These structures were set up to make it economically viable to have these types of installations shut down in extreme events and function as "virtual power plants" (remember, lowering base load is physically and economically equivalent to providing additional generation.)
So far, this kind of makes sense. But unfortunately the same framework can also be applied to cryptocurrency operations, where it really does not make intuitive sense. Largely, IMO, because Bitcoin is so piggish for energy for so little societal value to start with.
It is far easier for power companies to manage power loss for things with consistent power usage (low variance) than high variance / inconsistent power loads.
Businesses tend to be very consistent, even if their power draw is high, like manufacturing or hospitals etc.
Residential power tends to be more variant and harder to fine tune for because it can spike quite suddenly in unexpected ways and tends to add more base load over time.
Therefore, it’d actually make more sense for power companies to buy people homes in other states if lowering base load is a concern, since residential is where all the major issues are for load balancing, no?
No, because of scale. A large factory is one entity to deal with. Moving just one out of state is possible, but meaningless as even though houses are significant overall you need to deal with many houses before an actual difference is made, while if you can deal with a factory you can make a large difference for the same amount of effort.
A factory/hospital is also easier because they probably have a backup plan. if there is any possibility that the power will go out they are likely to have made backup plans. You are overall cheaper than their backup plans, but you can probably make them a deal where they run their backup plan instead of connecting to you. Since they already have the generator it isn't a problem for them to use their generator on your busy days, and so a small discount makes it easy to work with the factory than a home owner who is probably thinking about friends and family they are moving away from.
The power company has a list of who these deals are with and the priority order. I know of one factory with a coal boiler from the 1800s, and a generator from then 1920s - the whole is very inefficient and takes a full day to start up, but the power company makes it worth while to keep everything operational because every 5 years they can power it on and supply the whole town (at 5x the normal cost of power from the plants they run all the time). Meanwhile there is a store near my parents that is running their generator every hot day - a modern diesel generator when sized properly is not a lot more expensive than grid power so the store doesn't need a big incentive to use it instead of grid power.
Of course all of the above is for exceptions. Where I live now we have built far more wind than needed most of the time, and as a result 80% of our power is renewable. There are very few days when backups are even needed.
That’s the objection, it’s simply a waste of money.
So why are they paying bitcoin miners to turn off, rather than just charging them market rates at all times and letting them decide for themselves?
I feel like I'm missing something here.
The UK system: https://www.nationalgrideso.com/industry-information/balanci...
It seems you'd be eligible for "quick reserve" if you could turn on or off >1MW of response within one minute. Ideal for batteries. Includes a "standby" fee paid hourly to cover having the system "armed".
(It seems unlikely that either the bitcoin operation or their electricity meter could manage sub-minute response times to changes in prices alone? I'm not exactly sure how metering and payment works at grid level and how granular it is)
This is a pretty common scam among neoliberals that I don't know how it's still a mystery to people. "Dur freedum markets good!" or whatever populist lies to get elected then crank up subsidies to your friends. A tale as old as time.
Right up there with "defund state institutions and then point to their dilapidated state as evidence of their inherent failure". Nhs in the uk for an easy example.
Consider the payment as the cost of maintaining demand during periods where you don’t want it.
It's like a factory that can only produce 100 widgets each week, nothing more or less. Ideally you want to always sell 100 widgets each week (supply = demand). You could build a smaller factor that only makes 60 widgets, but the cost per widget would be 50% higher and at market rates you can't make enough money to justify the investment.
So what you do is build the 100 widget factory and you sign up a customer who will always buy 40 widgets each week, and the remaining 60 widgets you sell to smaller customers.
If suddenly the demand from smaller customers hits 90 widgets one week, you don't want to just cut off the 40 widget customer and say "tough shit", because they may not come back and you're stuck with 40 widgets each week you can't sell.
So you pay them money in exchange for accepting a lower supply of widgets that week.
Even with the payments, net-net you’re better off because during the 50 weeks per year when smaller customers only buy 60 widgets, overall your set up is more efficient.
Demand and price are linked. If you’re selling 40 units a week at 10$ and demand increase to 90 units @ 10$ that doesn’t force you to sell at 10$, you can spike prices to 50$ and suddenly people aren’t trying to buy 90 units.
Electrify customers pay a premium to have a fixed rate. Customers swap to market rates because they can save a little money on average and significantly more if they delay use to cheaper periods. Such as plugging in an EV when you get home but only charging it from 12pm to 4am or whatever.
Establishing a separate mechanism to compensate "virtual" generation (via load reduction) works no matter what pricing structure I use for my typical energy purchases.
I mean, if that's not a good way to funnel money from the lower classes to the rich, I don't know what is.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/06/texas-paid-bitcoin-miner-rio...
That is you need to buy servers and keep them functional in order to get the subsidy. The subsidy isn't enough pay for the servers on its own. Probably bitcoin itself doesn't pay enough for the servers/power/space it needs anymore, though that requires analysis that I can't perform.
Does one need a minimum number of rigs? Maybe a permit? Just apply to the utility?
I’d rather be paid than volunteer to sit around in the dark, sweating like a chump.
> (1) the facility requires a total load of more than 75 megawatts; and
Then I register with ERCOT... and profit. They seem to have passed a few bothersome "bills" to thwart our attempts at being a giant resistor though. Also, so they don't seem to specify any efficiency rating for the whole endeavor. Perhaps I can literally install a giant power resistor + a few GPUs, claim 75 MW, turn it all off and then head to the bank?
I would imagine that the crypto operations also pays a lot of money for generation services - so knowing how much it purchases for electricity vs how much it conserves would add a lot of context. Stating that they get millions (loose numbers) from DM/DR programs is pretty soft reporting and they are providing a grid stabilizing service.
The argument that retail consumers can't get money from DR programs i'm not sure is accurate though don't know what ERCOT currently offers for residential consumers. I know of services that allow consumers to cash in through smart thermostats etc (OhmConnect). Also its a lot cheaper to get a couple large consumers to reduce their usage then aggregating over a large group of houses.
Now if you are trying to argue that this use case for the electricity is wasteful thats another argument or that Texas handling of the grid has been challenged especially the natural gas fiasco - also another argument.
Austin Energy appears to charge about 10 cents/kWh (interestingly, it’s comparable across all service classes if I read the tariff sheet right). They pay up to $80/kW saved on average (across all events, I think) [0], I think annually. The webpage is vague. So Austin Energy is effectively paying $80/kW/year of capacity available on 10 minutes notice.
1 kW for a whole year is 8766 kWh, which would cost about $876. And you need to actually be using that kW to resell it as average demand response, so this program is about a 10% discount for being willing to shut down on 10 minutes notice. Or alternatively, you get 10% off in exchange for reducing your SLA a bit :)
Hate bitcoin miners all you like, but the actual payment seems quite reasonable.
[0] https://savings.austinenergy.com/commercial/offerings/load-m...
(hopefully they have safeguards against that?)
One of the reasons why I'm so obsessed with transportation alternatives is that I came of age as Austin went from an arguably perfect highway capacity, then suddenly tipped into an unfixable accelerating traffic nightmare. Watching a finite resource (highway capacity) suddenly cross a depletion threshold, and cascade out of control really effected me. Once it happens, nothing can really be done about it except at enormous cost.
We are now seeing the same happening with power capacity. We will soon see it with water as the Ogallala Aquifer disappears.
The type of politically palatable libertarianism that thrives in most of Texas, require effectively unlimited access to resources.
The more things change eh
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perverse_incentive#The_origina...
These miners have no choice but to shut down because ERCOT can also remotely kill their ability to consume the load. Part of the payments they get are because of the service being provided to the grid and also to encourage miners to continue operating in good faith by volunteering to load shed and work with grid operators.
The story is even more complex when you throw in things like land being bought to the sum of 240 million for these miners to operate on and locals in areas like this seem excited for the job opportunity so I have to believe good portions of that 34 million are making its way right back into the local economy of central Texas.
The reason Bitcoin mining works and not your space heater is because of the incentive structures built into the proof of work system within Bitcoin.
I think this is worth digging into deeper and figuring out how we can objectively measure if this is successful or not. I think there is a legitimate counter argument to make that without mining actually, Texas would have had a full grid blackout this summer.
Could Texas return to Integrated utilities, and Rate of Return based pricing? sure, but that'd be up to the legislature to deal with.
I think the current system surprisingly (even to me) works well, I think building in market incentives is probably easier than trying to put the genie back in the bottle.
So to explain what I mean by that in depth - the economic losses from shutdown are limited to production losses during the shutdown, and there is no loss of inventory, or other secondary losses like process startup and shutdown for a refinery, semiconductor fab, or other kinds of manufacturing which product a physical good.
This static load absorbs some of the excess generation from wind and solar, thereby keeping the spot price in the grid high enough that thermal generation is still cost effective to build and operate.
Now, that all said, I dont think we should be paying them to shut down, they should just be disconnected wholesale from the grid during periods of ultra high demand as a condition of their interconnection to it. That said, we have programs designed to offset economic losses from disconnection from the grid during high use periods, and the bitcoin plants are just using that existing mechanism - I have mixed feelings about it, but I dont think its all bad.
It is all really new stuff to me but interesting. I think a lot of negative attention takes the light because the state of Texas is a political dumpster fire and I would be incredibly suspicious of anything the state tries to do, especially when it comes to something adjacent to a trendy industry that has made big news for scams after scams lately. But from what I am able to gather so far, there might actually be something here.
I do agree with one commenter in that I am not entirely sure its needed to provide payment to these guys, but maybe they are not able to be profitable with mining and selling Bitcoin alone, or need to hedge against the volatility of the price and payments help with both of those things.
Politicians are utterly useless. They all herded to the crypto grift frenzy as if this was going to do anything for the local economy. Wonder how it's turning out? The 2021 fad has subsided, now they are paying customers to mine coins? Beyond stupid.
Step 1: get in power. Step 2: make government smaller by dismantling systems made to protect the public. Step 3: grift. Step 4: "See, governments are all grifters! Never vote for people who ask for bigger governments." Step 5: goto step 1
Is observability of Texan infrastructure so poor that the _power company_ doesn’t have a comprehensive view of _which power plants are operational_?
Bank/toilet paper rush style.
While may be cathartic to muse how certain political ideologies tend to do the exact opposite when asked to conserve, Texans' don't trust the grid and they have valid reasons to not trust it.
I don't know if this thermal battery helps much.
It is a peak issue not a sustained issue during off hours so that can assist.
The difference is that this was the first time that they followed up the first message with a second one when reserves became critically low and the frequency started dropping. But by the time I saw the second message, it was obvious from their dashboards that the situation was well on its way to being resolved, so I'm doubtful the second message had much affect either way.
I have an rational distrust of ERCOT's grid management given my experience of freezing for a week in 2021. What's more the current situation is entirely preventable(who could predict summer in TX would be hot?!) so I rebel at suffering to compensate for ERCOT's negligence and corruption.
If they truly don't know, then that's a problem. If they do know but are waiting to release information until they know all the facts, that's probably fine.
On a re-read, the article does mention that the speculation of power plant failure is coming from outsiders on Twitter, so we don’t know whether the observability is there or not
[1] https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2018/09/28/902NPRR-01_ERCOT...
ERCOT reform was announced by Governor Abbott in 2021, but that same reform was also penned in a nearly 400 page report that was completely ignored during ERCOT's 2011 failure.
https://www.dallasnews.com/news/watchdog/2021/03/26/in-20-ye...
The best part is the governor complains yet PGE can’t restock toilet paper without CPUC approval and guess who sits on CPUC? The governors appointees.
Politics is so binary and broken in this country that we are just making fixable issues into permanent hardships.
This is a Dem and Rep problem and more importantly the end result of a 2 party system.
That and corruption all the way down.
I'm a swing voter, I vote both R and D. To the best of my knowledge I have never met another one in real life. I know they do exist though. I find myself voting one party at the state level and another at the federal level. Both parties have stances I agree and disagree with. I would love a party that does the same.
If you over-simplify, stereotype and demean people who disagree with you, you're part of the problem.
Honestly if it was that simple, then maybe we should just say no more killing babies and let the hunters shoot their deer and otherwise move forward with the rest of the Democratic party's platform.
Did he voted for people that are responsible for this?
I live in a red state whose natural environment has been devastated by Republican policies for over a century. What people see here today is a remnant of primordial old-growth wilderness. But they think it's natural and how it's always been. Similarly to the way that austerity drives struggle and suffering for working class families, but they continue voting conservative against their own self-interest. The worse it gets, the more they vote Republican. Like Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown right as he is about to kick it.
Democrats have been pushing for sustainability and a national rollout of renewable energy since at least the 1960s, definitely before the Earth First! movement of the 1980s, and probably all the way back to the strengthening of national parks by Teddy Roosevelt during the Progressive Era around 1900. It's odd to imagine a Republican as an environmentalist today, but there used to be many. That helps us to understand how the parties flipped due to stuff like Nixon's Southern Strategy.
We can blame Democrats for urban sprawl, high state sales tax, red tape/overregulation, basic hypocrisy in not living sustainably at an individual level and subscribing to neoliberalism like Republicans. But the economic and environmental problems we face today are mostly a result of decades of anti-sustainability legislation and subsidies for fossil fuel companies by Republicans. To say otherwise is revisionist history and not the academic view IMHO.
With the 100 year storms hitting the south every 2-10 years now, the environmental bill is coming due. It's all but certain that some number of southern states will flip blue. It will be interesting to see if that improves their infrastructure, or if it's too late.
But I do agree with you about the dysfunction. When the Boomers pass, I wonder if the parties will flip again and introduce a whole new set of wedge issues to argue about incessantly as the world burns.
Imagine the world from the point of view of some one that truly believes that abortion is the murder of little children. I really mean it, just for 30 seconds.
We all have these core issues that we hold most dear and assume others must as well. Many people care far more about social issues than the environment or taxation or whatever their 'it' is.
Having only 2 parties forces us to choose the party that best represents our 'it' but to also vote for the myriad of other policies we may disagree with. We very much dislike the other party though because they have the opposite stance on our 'it'.
"It's all but certain that some number of southern states will flip blue" Florida is redder than ever. I encourage you to pause and reflect on the why of that. It's very much not because the voters are stupid, they have other 'its' that are important to them.
It's not really possible to write about this without sounding political, but the article covers a problem of political origin. So I'll do my best here to stay objective.
The left is fairly aligned today along a number of ideological lines. Basically all democrats want renewable energy, recycling, regulated natural monopolies instead of privatization, minimal social safety nets in the form of unemployment insurance and food stamps, universal healthcare, higher taxes on the wealthy, etc. It feels that scaremongering over taxation is a distraction from the fact that corporations and the wealthy have received multi-trillion dollar tax cuts since the Reagan Revolution and trickle-down economics, which created the national debt, many argue by design.
The right however is divided between libertarian ideals and religious fundamentalism. Jesus would be sad that children are caged at the border, while Christian nationalists call for tougher border enforcement. Rivers are being poisoned while rightwing think tanks like The Heritage Foundation call for more deregulation. People are struggling to make rent, much less pay their taxes, while roads and bridges crumble due to siphoning of the general fund to pay for continuous war in the Middle East and the bloating of the military industrial complex via IOUs to social security. Just on and on and on. There is so much cognitive dissonance within the Republican party that its voters must hold their noses while continuing to vote for it, simply to avoid the pain of voting for the other guys. There is no unified Republican vision to speak of today like there was under a statesman like Eisenhower. So the party turns to strongmen like the former president and Ron DeSantis in desperation, while the left and the rest of the world watch in confusion.
I feel that the projection of the right's frustrations onto the left is not based in fact or reason. Florida is redder than ever, as you said. But Florida is becoming uninsurable. My friend just moved there and narrowly escaped having his home destroyed because hurricane Idalia turned east at the last moment. Homosexuals didn't cause that, centuries of CO2 emissions from the industrial revolution and complete denial of that fact by the right did. But the news makes both of those stances sound fair and balanced.
One of the major things that Republicans struggle with is materiality (relevance and prioritization).
Without a natural environment, humanity can't survive. Bitcoin may use a lot of energy (that's dwarfed by manufacturing and transportation) yet look how much it's popped up in the comments as a factor in the blackouts. Corporate welfare and defense spending dwarf food stamp costs like SNAP for children, yet Republicans consistency target that for spending cuts. Wind and solar costs fell below coal and natural gas a decade ago, yet rightwing think tanks continue to spread propaganda that renewables are more expensive, that photovoltaic panels and fiberglass windmill blades are worse for the environment than burning radioactive coal.
Even wedge issues like abortion aren't what they seem. The left argues that personal choice and responsibility should not be overridden by government overreach. But that's a Republican sentiment. Democrats would normally argue for the protection of embryos, since they are a vulnerable segment of the population and have no advocate. Yet the parties are flipped on this, using it as a tool to rally their bases. So indirectly, I agree with you here.
Same with gun control. Democrats aren't demanding that the government take away our guns. That's Republican propaganda. But the left is arguing for banning or at the very least licensing assault weapons, just like how a truck driver should probably have a class A driver's license to operate a vehicle with such destructive potential. The key here is that this is all beside the point, since both sides are trying to protect children in schools. But the right is still in denial that their own children aren't at risk as long as guns aren't regulated.
I don't really know what to say about all of this. And thankfully nobody cares what I think. And also I'm always wrong, luckily. But I believe in my heart that the pandemic opened our eyes to reality. The chickens have come home to roost. Formerly academic problems are now at our doorstep. I can see that Biden has survived nearly unsurvivable trauma, so now he's woke. He is no hero to the left, but its hero Bernie Sanders couldn't be allowed by the establishment. Where is an empathetic leader on the right? Where is the conservative leader that will rise above generational trauma to lead us into prosperity? There isn't one. Because the right isn't doing the work to move through a healing and growth process. There's only projection, finger pointing, half-truths and ridiculous eventualities like a whole state's power grid going down so that a few guys at the top can dip their sticky fingers into the public's electric bill.
I'll use myself as an example. I live in Florida so I can identify with your friend and insurance. My political leanings have shifted as I have gotten older and had kids. I voted Dem religiously my entire life until the last midterm. I voted for Desantis even though on many issues I disagree with him. My 'it' to continue my theme from my prior post became social issues and more importantly how they affect my kids. I am very much against schools keeping secrets from parents and the sort of gender & race ideology that is encouraged in states like California [I expect to be massively down voted over this]. I have no issue with adults making whatever choices they want in life as consenting adults. Thus Desantis got my vote this round even though I disagree with him on many things, especially his use of government power to target political enemies like Disney (which has blown up in his face). I don't think Desantis is a good candidate for federal power and will vote for Biden again. I will probably vote Desantis again on the state level for the same reason, local control of schools and social issues that in my mind could affect my kids.
You could argue that my concerns are unfounded or pale in comparison to the dangers of climate change. Right now though they are my main concern and I will hold my nose and vote on them. I agree climate change is an issue, I just don't see it as being immediately solvable. Third world countries are going to continue to burn coal and more of it as they seek to expand their economy. I don't see how we can ask them not to while we sit here in the first world and enjoy the benefits of decades of doing just that.
As far as assault rifles, the right sees them as insurance against government coming into homes and dictating to them how they should live their lives. Whether we agree or not, that is their world view or at least some of them. This was compounded when we watched police in other countries assault people in the pandemic over mask wearing. A family member of mine who is highly intelligent and manages billions of $ has what can essentially be called an arsenal for this reason.
Abortion for many is not so much an issue of personal choice but of the wholesale murder of kids. I think you would agree that it should not be a parents choice to kill a 4 year old, just extrapolate to a fetus and that's how they feel. Again, this is their belief and it understandably colors their world view. I don't share this belief but I get it.
Many white republicans see the changes in other countries like race being taken into account in prison sentencing and school admission and see how this affects their kids long term. The mayor of new york city, a democrat just said that all of the immigrants being sent to NYC could be the end of it. Republicans in TX and border states have dealt with this for many years so you can understand how it colors their opinion.
I'm pretty much with you on the military industrial complex part except I view it as a jobs program. We provide work to people who otherwise may not find meaningful employment as well as providing hundreds of thousands of middle class jobs to the engineers that build our weapon systems and the supporting software. If we cut our military spend by half tomorrow, where would all of those jobs go?
Democrats frame violent crime often as a gun issue but so many of the weapons used in shootings in cities like Chicago are illegal weapons. Republicans see these cities and their crime rates as proof that being lax on enforcement and punishment leads to violence. SF is a great example of this as people leave and businesses close up due to rampant theft and safety concerns.
I generally try and put myself in other peoples shoes to understand where they are coming from. I'll vote Biden because I think he is doing a good job on the federal level I don't see any decent candidates of the caliber of McCain or Romney on the Republican side. I'll also try and vote for mixed government in congress as preventing 1 party from having full power prevents the most extreme of either parties ideas being pushed through. Real change requires compromise from both. I'll vote for Republicans on the state level as right now my 'it' requires it.
I am willing to change though as my 'it' changes and as my kids get older, my voting will probably continue to evolve. Everyone has a reason why they vote how they do though, their core issue is just different from yours or mine. I think I may be a little different in that my core issue actually changes. I think for most they just vote how they have always voted and their core issues remain the same.
One thing I very much don't like is how vindictive politics has become in the last decade or so. People hate the other side to the point of violence [left and right]. I cannot condone that. I also see what happened on Jan. 6 as an abomination which is another reason that I will not vote R at the federal level unless the candidate utterly condemns it and the person in power when it happened.
Having grown up in a red state and having conservative leanings around self-reliance, even though at a national level I prefer some liberal bureaucracy to keep the system running, because that's beyond me. If the system worked as the founding fathers intended, we'd be able to rely on republican representation to take care of business for us so that we wouldn't have to be as personally involved democratically. The loss of that basic trust and civil discourse really irks me. Especially in recent years, as you said.
I don't have kids, but I have watched my more political friends on social media cool their jets a little since January 6, I think due to family pressure. It seems to be slowly dawning on them that the problems we're facing transcend politics. None of us want to leave future generations saddled with unplayable debts and environmental collapse. But sadly there's not much we can do about that in the short term. So we'll probably have to work through these wedge issues one by one and put it all on the table to reach some sort of consensus or compromise through political horse trading. And that's not a bad thing.
I keep writing and deleting this paragraph, so I think I'll just leave it at that. Thank you as well for responding in depth. I wish I could leave you with the last word, but didn't want to leave you hanging!
> The power grid has seen overall demand grow 7% this summer, after two decades of predictable 1% per year growth, and 10 preliminary demand records since late June. [1]
[1]: https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/erc...
I imagine maybe this requires some additional infrastructure that simply doesn't exist. If so, what's the barrier to building this infrastructure?
Building and connecting takes time. Texas has added several state's worth of energy to the grid in the past few years. The peak hit at the 2021 winter storm was 76GW, far higher than any normal time historically. This summer, just two years later, Texas is going >85GW of power demand every day.
For comparison, New York's projected peak demand is only 32GW for this summer. So Texas' demand grew by an additional 1/3 of New York's entire demand in just 2 years. That's a massive amount of growth!
Those models may have been wrong, or based on assumptions about temperatures that turned out incorrect.
It sucks if you’re like, you know, a person living there, but in terms of finance incentives, it’s close to the best possible outcome, right?
My neighborhood has had dozens of outages over the past few years, the worst of which was nearly a week-long outage during the now-infamous freeze.
So yeah, energy is cheap, but same areas are hit harder than others in terms of reliability.
The energy company’s reasoning for these dozens of small blackouts is “grid upgrades” - that’d be great if true, but who really knows.
Building even 100GW of additional capacity in the state or additional transmission capacity for solar out in the middle of nowhere won't solve the problems your neighbors are facing. Complaining about ERCOT isn't solving the problem, its not ERCOT's role to handle that section. Hold your local delivery provider responsible.
I'd be interested in knowing who that delivery company is if you wouldn't mind sharing.
So this was foreseeable, but unforeseen because they didn't wish to. And it will continue to happen, and worse.
The overnight low price is typically $20-$30/MWh. Yesterday during the shortage the price peaked at $5000/MWh, which I suspect might be an upper limit.
Tons of money, and time?
Texas grid is over 100GW, they're saying they have a 7% increase in demand? So figure like 5-10GW?
They just spent $10 billion on 10GW of new power plants, and those take 5-10 years to come online. (And the estimate is it'll overrun to $18 billion)
There's a queue of companies who want to build power plants in Texas, but can't because the lines aren't there. https://www.texastribune.org/2023/05/25/texas-renewable-ener...
If Texas can’t supply enough energy in the summer, I have no hope for what our future winters will look like.
Out of curiosity, what did those graphs look like to you on previous years?
And yes, it’s most efficient to keep supply and demand close. But based on this article and our recent trends, it seems like there’s some trouble / concern with unlocking the extra energy needed to supply everyone lately.
I don't live in TX, but if I didn't have 1day battery storage, coupled with solar capability to charge that battery to full in a single day, with a generator as backup, every ounce of effort would be going to that.
Apparently, in our area, winters are so cloudy that their solar panels (which cover 100% of energy usage in summer) don’t cover but 20% of their usage in the winter.
No reasonable amount of batteries can ward off grid concerns with those inefficiencies.
I think wind and solar are great, and we should build more, but you also need a sizable amount of thermal generation (preferably nuclear) to provide for base load.
I dont think thermal can be replaced readily with gas turbine, battery, pumped storage, or other forms of rapid spin up equipment.
I have the somewhat controversial opinion that things like bitcoin are useful because they create static demand, and by doing so make the excess generation from wind and solar economical, thereby keeping the spot price in the grid high enough that thermal generation is still cost effective to build and operate - I dont think we should be paying them to shut down, they should just be disconnected wholesale from the grid during periods of ultra high demand as a condition of their interconnection to it.
The other close day this summer was also because of thermal plants supposedly not being able to come online due to extra maintenance.
Renewable energy is not reliable or stable enough to be as large of a share of the power grid as it already is. ERCOT is running into this first because it’s a smaller grid and has less margin for error, but the other two US grids are going to have the same problem in time.
This will become a bigger issue for all as more EV's gain adoption.
And with the reluctance to use nuclear, there's not many reliable options for clean energy.
If ERCOT is paying bitcoin miners to not mine, I don't see why they wouldn't be willing to pay EV owners for some storage capacity and cooperative charge scheduling.
It's way cheaper to give incentive pricing to consumers to use less energy, than it is to build an entirely new power plant.
This is where EVs can help if they have V2G aka bidirectional charging capabilities.
Nuclear will take years if not decades to solve the problems but solar can be deployed in months or a year with the right incentives.
Texas paid Bitcoin miner Riot $31.7M to shut down in August
https://twitter.com/ogbtc/status/1699588007664275873
It also goes into the other mechanism by which they make money (being natural sellers of future energy demand contracts during times of high demand). This mechanism is similar to how other commodity markets operate with producers, consumers with steady future demand, and consumers with unpredictable short-term demand.
Our energy grids need to keep an equal demand/production at all times, and on-demand load-shedding is a valuable part of this equation. The bitcoin miners are providing a service to ERCOT and being paid for it. If there were a more "productive" source of on-demand energy usage, then it will replace the bitcoin miners, this is how markets work (of which both energy production/consumption and capitalism in general are).
This is the reality of how the texas energy grid works at present. The bitcoin miners, for lack of a (subjectively) "better" option, are filling the two needs of elastic load-shedding and predictable future demand. The first is very hard to fill, the latter can probably be fulfilled more productively with steady demand from other industries (factories, data centers, other things that run 24h per day).
One more edit: this whole equation changes COMPLETELY if we have the ability to store energy production in times of low demand to be used in future times of high demand (batteries). We don't currently have this at any sort of reasonably useful scale, we need this, and the current "market" everyone is upset about is a bandaid on top of the lack of decent storage options. For the climate folks, the anti-bitcoin folks, whoever disagrees with what I've said here: Fix the storage issue and everything gets magically better. Good luck, it's a very hard problem with very nasty environmental impacts, I'm rooting for you.
With the grid, that's unacceptable. So there's an absurd solution of paying customers to influence their buying behavior, and even calling them 'service providers'. In a normal market, you charge more or less to steer consumer behavior, like what they do for human customers.
In this 'market', the government is providing much of the capital and the businesses are not taking on all of the risk. And some 'customers' are necessary to make the product work.
This is not an appropriate scenario for a free market. It's actually impossible for it to function as a free market.
Also, really like how the majority of the comments sound like Reddit /r/politics's far left, adult man child, ignorant insights.
Is this newsworthy, are we reporting on things that almost happened?
Which is basically every new house in Texas.
Let's keep our heads down in the sand when the cracks are starting to show and when there still might be time to adapt to what's going on before the disaster strikes.
Nothing happened, so nothing to see here. Everything is working perfectly, move along.
In case you were asking this in good faith: Yeah, it is, for a buncha reasons. I'll theorycraft a few from my uneducated position:
1) There was a public mass email sent out, but followup wasn't forthcoming, so people might want to know what happened. People often turn to the news for this function.
b) There was grid failure that resulted in deaths because it got too cold out a while back, so people might want to know if it's likely to happen again, once more making the news about the conditions involved relevant, because it wasn't too cold this time.
iii) Some people rely on electricity to stay alive in a very-direct, medical sense, and might be so interested enough in the power grid's disposition to be concerned if someone at ERCOT farts out of turn.
Also, yes, the news routinely reports on things that almost happened. I don't even own cable TV and I know that.
In theory supply and demand still exists in Texas, and Bitcoin miners do demand a lot of energy. Assuming that energy companies are including Bitcoin miners in their demand projections (I don't see why they wouldn't?) then the default assumption is that just based on the market forces at play, capacity should have been built with Bitcoin miner demand included.
The simple fact of the matter is Texas does not have sufficient electrical generation capacity to satiate its demands, especially given the record spate of hot days (it's been daily highs above 100F in Austin for two months). There's no need to add extra sources of demand to encourage new supply.
Was surprised just how many 'free-market' advocates came out to say how great things were, how the market has created additional supply, and all this was just lib panic.
They are paying 'crypto-miners' to temporarily stop running? That is absurd. So I could make money just by moving a mining operation to Texas, and wait for a shutdown.
How much failure does it take to realize some regulation is good. It benefits everyone.
Maine is a headscratcher with HydroQuebec across the border.
California has not had any capacity-related problems in the past 2 years, mostly due to the fact that they now have 5.5GW of battery backup capacity that covers the critical period at dusk, when solar generation is headed for zero, during late summer where the days are getting shorter but it is still hot.
Am I supposed to interpret "covers critical period at dusk..." as the "hours" part of 5.5GW? Because I'm having trouble grokking what is the actual battery backup capacity described here... Does CA have battery capacity that can last a single evening @ 5.5GW of load?