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Comment by 0xDEF | Hacker News Reader

>The character assassination of Snowden

Well nobody forced him to repeat Russian propaganda in late 2021 and early 2022 that "Russia was totally not going to invade".

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In late 2021 and early 2022 almost everybody, including most European heads of state, believed Russia was just bluffing and wasn't going to invade (because they correctly thought it would be incredibly irrational).

Then maybe you should start putting a bit more trust on the people giving you accurate information predictions, like the US State dept. and people like Dmitri Alperovitch https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527 , and less trust on Russian state propaganda spreaders like Snowden, https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1493646431743356931?lang=....

grandparent is probably not a head of state

I've been fooled once too often by the US State Department to believe them on anything important.

I think most of that happened well before 2021. And he may well have believed they were not going to invade — I totally believed that, because the alternative was just too depressing. Most of my friends, relatives and acquaintances (Russian-speaking, but not in Russia) were of a similar opinion.

He claimed it just a week before the invasion!

https://twitter.com/Snowden/status/1493646431743356931?lang=...

He doesn't claim anything, he just didn't believe it at that point. He literally says "If there's an invasion tomorrow, dunk on me because I have been spectacularly wrong."

He admits that he could be wrong beforehand!

You have first hand knowledge of whether he was coerced or not?

He hasn't even acknowledged his part in spreading the obvious propaganda. Nor does he seem to care about US democracy considering he's been silent on Jan 6 Trump insurrection

I agree he repeats Russian propaganda and it's sad. It diminishes his previously clear and rational portrayal of what he knew of the NSA.

It was clear that Russia lining their tanks up on the border and stress testing the Ukrainian response to an invasion was not going to be a bluff. Why give your enemy the chance at trial run? This was the message from US and UK intelligence and they were right.

I understand why he does it though, he is in Russia and if someone takes a dislike to him he will be dead. He would also feel justifiably "wronged" by the US, and i understand why he would not want to repeat US messaging, but maybe don't keep quite about the Russian "messaging" as well.

At least he is not as crazy as Kim Dotcom, another Twitter "celebrity" with a taste for Russian propaganda who has been wronged by the US.

How often does the US put military equipment on the borders of countries like Russia and China without invading?

All the time

What are you talking about? Can you provide one example of the US doing a buildup on the Russian or Chinese border that was even a quarter the size of the Russian buildup ahead of their full-scale invasion?

At literally any given time, including right now, the US has a wide combination of aircraft carriers and submarines and other vessels in striking distance and with enough nuclear arms to flatten the entirety of China. It terms of destructive power it’s significantly higher than what Russia has built up

I think this situation is different from hundreds of thousands of troops and thousands of pieces of armor and artillery being moved to the border over the course of a couple months.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1294271/us-troops-europe...

    Germany 35k
    Italy   12k
    UK      10k
    -----------
    Total   57k

So... zero on the border with Russia or China.

Ah, yes, the technical correct, best kind of correct.

Remind me, why the country an ocean away has it's troops in these countries?

And while we are it, can you explain why the country with only two countries on it's borders (one is allied, the other one is clearly not hostile) has a standing Army (not navy, not air force) of 460k+ active personnel?

> remind me...

Because they asked, because WW2 & NATO, because of the USSR and now Russia. If they weren't there, what might Russia have tried before 2022?

> And while we are it

Because of the Russia, China, NK, Iran. Who's going to stop them from attacking their neighbors?

OP claimed it was reasonable to say "Russia won't invade" because he claimed the US does things similar to Russia's buildup, but it doesn't invade.

I was saying that, whatever your thoughts about US military policy, its deployment patterns are not, in fact, anything like what Russia did in late 2021/early 2022.

Pointing out that the US has troops in other countries, and a massive military in general, does not address the point.

> Pointing out that the US has troops in other countries, and a massive military in general, does not address the point.

US doesn't have an army on the Russian border because it's at least an ocean away, so asking 'how many US forces at the Russian border' is naive at bedt and comparing apples to oranges at worst.

You are clearly are separating US from NATO, which is technically correct but absolutely ignores how US sees the world.

I think you should go back and re-read the post I initially replied to.

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