Britain’s statisticians fix a blunder and find a bigger economy
economist.com
economist.com
The first economist says to the other “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that pile of shit.” The second economist takes the $100 and eats the pile of shit.
They continue walking until they come across a second pile of shit. The second economist turns to the first and says “I’ll pay you $100 to eat that pile of shit.” The first economist takes the $100 and eats a pile of shit.
Walking a little more, the first economist looks at the second and says, "You know, I gave you $100 to eat shit, then you gave me back the same $100 to eat shit. I can't help but feel like we both just ate shit for nothing."
"That's not true", responded the second economist. "We increased the GDP by $200!"
In this case we have two approximately equal economists, but in general any discussion about revealed preferences, utility, and value is remiss without a parallel discussion on how value is wealth-weighted. Feeding a starving orphan creates 0 economic value because the orphan has no money, but figuring out how to merge companies into a monopoly creates extreme amounts of economic value by way of making rich investors even richer.
Economic value is not only distinguished as economic measurement. This is why utility theory and revealed preference theory exist.
With notable exceptions for things like war.
Only if the net value is positive-sum.
Setting a city on fire, or giving cancer to a million people, or just going down the street, smashing every parked car's window with a tire iron will likely increase national GDP.
Liekwise, people pay a lot of money for net negative-sum industries - the health insurance industry in the US immediately springs to mind. We'd all be better off without that parasite.
Over in Manitoba they've got one of those for car insurance too. Amazingly, people continue driving there just the same, the government insurance plan never needs subsidies and Manitobans pay way less for insurance. Almost as if the concept of the free market being the best solution for market X needs to be tested once in a while just to be sure, and results may be surprising.
The larger point being: there are many areas of the economy in which the free market approach is clearly better, and there are many other areas of the economy in which the free market approach is clearly deficient and a government-run agency is superior. Insurance is in neither of these convenient buckets. "Unlikely" is an opinion on a hypothetical; it is not necessary when real-world examples abound.
In terms of this exact comparison - is this like for like? I don't understand it well enough to know.
(Not to mention suboptimal health outcomes arising from the perverse incentives it creates.)
If I pay Fat Tony to break your legs, and then you pay a doctor to put them back together, this whole adventure increased GDP, but is a net-negative-sum activity.
"People have to do more work to accomplish the same amount of results" isn't a worthy goal in itself.
It's not. If I steal a million dollars from you, the net impact on GDP is ~0. Hell, if you were keeping it in your mattress, and I spend it on drugs and parties, GDP will actually go up.
GDP is a useful number, but it's not the only useful number.
Could one carefully construct examples, sure, does that scale - not so much.
It is valuable to society to do things that create joy.
Shit eating may not hold up specifically.
The enjoyment derived by the watcher must exceed that of having $100 and using that money in the future, or he wouldn’t have paid out. The disgust of the eater is more than compensated by the $100, or he wouldn’t accept that payment and do the job.
Both coprophages have thus derived utility from the exchange. From an economic standpoint, eating shit is just a form of working.
He takes a 50k job, pays à baby-sitter 20k (said babysitter couldn't find a service job that could pay him 50k, weirdly), and voilà, 70k GDP.
It would be great if we could measure work done without exchange of goods however that is generally not so large as to totally distort the general numbers. To no discredit of the work parents do.
so, he produces 50k value somewhere
The dosing regimen of Vowst is four capsules taken once a day, orally, for three consecutive days. """
(I’m kidding. Obviously we don’t put probiotic foods up our butt, even though I do find yoghurt works great as a lubricant)
"We earned 60$ each and owe the state 40$!"
Or do you have a better suggestion? I will retell this story so please share.
It's one of the reasons it's so easy to screw up the estimates when companies have bigger inventories than usual...
This example points out that we also have to look out whether GDP is also tied to valuable activities.
Things that come to mind are gambling, buying lottery, trading arts / crypto / stocks, and generally entertainment.
Some activities offer very little value.
This means these low value activities should reflect a minor part of your total GDP.
If the majority of your GDP comes from people in your own country trading arts with each other, you are fucked.
Alice loves widgets. She would pay $100 for a widget. She goes on line and finds Bob offering widgets for sale for $100. Err, that is not really what she had in mind. She imagined paying $30 for a widget, and feeling $70 better off as a consequence. She emails Bob: How about $90?
Bob feels like giving up altogether. It takes him ten hours to hand craft a widget and the minimum wage where he lives is $10 an hour. He was offering widgets for $150. $100 is the absolute minimum. Bob replies: No.
While Alice is deciding whether to pay $100 for a widget that is only worth $100 to her, Carol puts the finishing touches to her widget making machine. At the press of a button Carol can produce a widget for only $10. She activates her website, offering widgets for $40. Alice orders one at once.
How would Eve the economist like to analyse this? She would like to identify a consumer surplus of 100 - 40 = 60 dollars, and a producer surplus of 40 - 10 = 30 dollars, for a total gain from trade of 60 + 30 = 90 dollars. But before she can do this she has to telephone Alice and Carol and find out the secret numbers, $100 and $10. Only the market price of $40 is overt.
Alice thinks Eve is spying for Carol. If Carol learns that Alice is willing to pay $100, she will up the price to $80. So Alice bullshits Eve: Yeh, I'm regretting my purchase, I've rushed to buy a widget, but what's it worth really? $35. I've over paid.
Carol thinks Eve is spying for Alice. If Alice learns that they only cost $10 to make, then she will bargain Carol down to $20. Carol bullshits Eve: Currently they cost me $45 to make, but if I can grow volumes I'll get a bulk discount on raw materials and I hope to be making them for $35 and be in profit by 2016.
Eve realises that she isn't going to be able to get the numbers she needs, so she values the trade at its market price and declares GDP to be $40. It is what economist do. It is the desperate expedient to which the opacity of business has reduced them.
Now for the twist in the tale. Carol presses the button on her widget making machine, which catches fire and is destroyed. Carol gives up widget making. Alice buys from Bob for $100. Neither is happy with the deal; the total of consumer surplus and producer surplus is zero. Alice is thinking that she would have been happier spending her $100 eating out. Bob is thinking that he would have had a nicer time earning his $100 waiting tables for 10 hours.
Eve revises her GDP estimate. She has committed herself to market prices, so it is up 150% at $100. Err, that is not what is supposed to happen. Vital machinery is lost in a fire, prices soar and goods are produced by tedious manual labour, the economy has gone to shit, producing no surplus instead of producing a $90 surplus. But Eve's figures make this look good.
Anyone have recommendations for Economics books that explain such concepts with simple to understand examples?
https://theconversation.com/excel-errors-the-uk-government-h...
I know unsophisticated people only look at the result, not the process. These folks are quick to blame whenever they perceive a mistake. Disappointed to see this take from the Economist.
A simpler explanation would be that "blunder" makes an exciting headline. Have you any evidence to support your explanation?
This government is all about extortion and information manipulation.
But you go on believing that conservatives can do no wrong.
Those austerity measures were responsible for deaths, ruined lives, and a massive decrease in quality of life for countless UK residents.
the FT was particularly upset that its past 2 years of depressive reporting have essentially been voided
https://www.ft.com/content/7b95e3d9-c5a1-42d5-84a8-921c9088c...
I do wonder how much damage the constant unsubstantiated media gloom over the past 5 years has done to UK investment
(thankfully the UK consumer ignored it and kept spending)
Yes, obviously.
> Also the NHS should be privatised already, it’s painful to see all the money wasted on it
What's an acceptable casualty level for this transition? 100k or 1m? There's 4.8m diabetics in the UK, how many of them do you expect to not be able to afford insulin?
Getting a cheaper place isn't completely impossible, but I'd just have to go somewhere far enough away that commuting may be impossible or impractical and that will upset my current employers.
Governments aren't the same as households — I can't force people to accept any "money"[0] I might try to "print"[0], nor do I run a central bank whose interest rates I get to set, nor do I collect taxes or customs duties — but there are analogies, and "infrastructure ≈ housing" is one.
What the UK needs more than anything else right now is a realistic economic plan; unfortunately the UK government appears to be unable to tell the difference between that, their rhetoric, and their wishful thinking.
[0] it isn't money if no one accepts it, literally printing something that even tries to be money is something I assume to be a crime without checking, and money is increasingly digital these days so why even do that?
And globally inflation has been high but trending down. Same as in the UK.
The ONS ought to be above political motivation and is, I believe, not politically controlled, so I doubt that cynical take would really explain the facts.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/public-bodies-reform#:~:text=A%2....
Weirdly I used to work both at the ONS, and subsequently at the department of the cabinet office responsible for tracking and reporting on them!
Let's say that the tories threaten the ONS with a sharp cut if they don't "play ball". Here are the scenarios.
ONS decide not to do it : leak to the press, Labour promise to reverse funding cut, funding cut doesn't come into force, Tories humiliated, Labour look favourably on ONS.
ONS decide to do it : Labour come into power, discover what happened (someone will talk), blood up the walls, ONS disolved etc.
So, I do not think that this is politically driven.
Oh i very much doubt that. No one wants to pay 80% in tax as thats what will be needed to fund their social programs.
The idea that the ONS would juice their figures due to political pressure is only something that seems plausible if you aren’t aware of how it’s set up.
Here’s their board: https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/lea...
Who on that board would be under the thumb? How would they get an organisation of hundreds of economists and statisticians to fall into line with their plan?
Good news for the rest of us is that most people don't take such a simplistic view and that therefore promising lower taxes than Labour doesn't guarantee a Tory win.
In not so good news, Labour have already back-peddled on most of Starmer's original tax-raising pledges and plans, and it seems that (with the possible exception of their being open to doing a one-off tax on the handful of biggest fossil fuel energy companies) they're not going to be looking to raise taxes on almost any area.
Personally I'd like to see a bit of a decrease in income taxes (primarily for the bottom 80% of earners; same or slight decrease for 80-99% percentiles; new slightly higher tier for top 1%) while bringing capital gains tax in line with income tax bands and rates. Because currently the highest rate of cap gains tax is 20%, the same as the lowest band of income tax. Anything you earn above ~£50k of income you pay 40% tax on, earning the same as capital gains... still just 20%. And while I'm at it, a slight increase on business rates too, either only targeting big businesses or specifically excluding businesses under a certain size. PLUS the one-off big tax on energy giants.
Oh yes because they’ve proven this time and again.
I dont like the tories, i think they are corrupt and incompetent. But they are likely to lower taxes because they have no other selling point.
Labour on the other hand…has no competence in generating growth. Their only plan is that of anyone without a plan: raise taxes. They say they wont but how else can they finance all they promise?
And given the lack of competence on both sides the most complex choice is voting for someone that lets me decide what i want to do with my money. Many folks are afraid of this level of freedom.
The simplistic notion that the government knows better wont fly with this over burdened tax payer.
Oh and those business rates. Guess you expect the government will hire you because that will be the only option if they keep raising them at this rate. Hopefully the NHS gets privatised so we get a relief soon.
Yeah, because getting rid of the last four Tory leaders has worked so well for them.
Boris was a lovable clown who self imploded so badly that surely no one could be worse --> internally 'elected' replacement Liz Truss who lasted less time than a shelf cabbage after tanking economy --> Rishi Sunak.
I can't see as how anything has been done right since the UK started down the distracting BREXIT path that nobody particularly wanted in the first instance save for some kind of confounded "No, I double, double, dare you!" trigger moment.
What have the disasters of Brexit been?
Falling trade with the EU.
Increased red tape.
Lower investment and hence stagnating productivity.
Economic performance below pre-referendum trend.
Immigration at an all time high.
We've had productivity problems since the end of the war, the last two years arent any different.
Immigration that we can control now.
So I can literally see no problems.
Honestly the Tories are fortunate that suckers are born every day and despite litterally doing things infront of peoples face every single day they still go out and shill that they are not doing that, wont do that and the other side are the ones doing it.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies%2C_damned_lies%2C_and_sta...
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statist...