France's waning influence in coup-hit Africa appears clear | Hacker News Reader

France's waning influence in coup-hit Africa appears clear

qz.com

I was watching a medium-long-form daily news program about Gabon. It was as if the leaders of the US Secret Service were part of the military and multiple generals decided to depose POTUS. Their military, so far, appears to be staying out of future politics and doing this out of nationalism to pave the way for a leader who isn't beholden to French neocolonialism. So far, there hasn't been significant violence or chaos. One can't simply topple a government without having a plan to deliver the mail, pickup the trash, pay government workers, handle crises, and maintain the trust of external creditors, many of whom are French multinationals.

It's up to how the (temporary?) military junta behaves and the way power they transfer power. Ideally, by holding elections with international observers. Another component in the transition will be establishing fiscal controls and oversight to tamp down on the corrupting influences of resource curses.

China provides moralising free support for the established order as long as the coltan flows

Of course industry would welcome profits and investment and exploitation of resource curses, but at what cost? Inviting any one of BRICS or any country right now would be inviting more neocolonialism that these particular countries are trying to get away from. Nationalism is also on the rise. It will take forming a legitimate, functional government before foreign economic policy conversations and negotiations will able to be addressed seriously.

Government leaders have an implied social contract to maintain an ethical tact on putting the needs of the people above what is best for themselves, their rich friends, or remain beholden to any other nation. Gabonese president Bongo found this out the hard way: you can't cheat your people, sell-out to French interests, and keep your family in power with impunity, forever.

The established order is a reflection of a nation culture and costumes, and that also includes the established order in western countries. Imagine a scenario where China refuses to export to the west until their governments agree to conditions such as rights for accommodation, or Saudi Arabia impose oil sanctions on countries until they ban gay marriage? From the rest of the world imposing western standards on these countries feel exactly like that.

There are 195 flavors of influence pedaled as attempted neocolonial influence as the world flattens.

Oil is going away. We've already reached 29% renewables globally and deployment costs are falling precipitously. It's cost effective to all non-pariah states, so there's no excuse to deploy dirty energy. Saudi Arabia will inevitably become a has-been, backwards, banana republic with a golden toilet monarch where it keeps women barefoot, pregnant, uneducated, and hidden like the Taliban and will be forever remembered for assassinating and dismembering a journalist in its embassy like a farm animal.

Oil is going away. We've already reached 29% renewables globally

That is for electricity, not overall energy like transportation and heating.

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