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Comment by layer8 | Hacker News Reader

The quiz asks how likely GPT-4 is to solve a given question correctly, and the user has to enter their guess as a number between 0 and 1 (a probability). However, the site then doesn’t provide the actual probability of GPT-4 providing a correct answer, to compare the guess against. This is, presumably, because there’s no practical way to determine that probablity with much precision. Also, in practice “correct” isn’t always black and white, e.g. there’s “not wrong but also not completely right”.

So I’m a bit confused about the whole premise.

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The tool is testing your ability to predict whether or not GPT-4 can get a task done correctly. You are supposed to provide your confidence level that it can do a task or not.

If you answer all the questions, at the end the tool will tell you how well calibrated your beliefs about GPT-4s capabilities are, and how that calibration compares to other users of the tool.

Even though this webpage seems like it is actually sending to GPT-4 it seems that it is not as I tried a few and get very different answers.

Many that the webpage claims are wrong GPT-4 actually gets right. Maybe it's some recent changes, but the flight time question for example, I tried many and was never able to get GPT4 to return any incorrect answer.

You can still determine the log likelihood of your predictions across the whole set of questions, even if you only have a single sampled response for each question.

Brier ("quadratic") store is another popular way to evaluate ensembles of forecasts.

Yes, and it can be simpler to calculate it, but it tends to have worse theoretical properties. In particular, with log likelihood we can sum the scores for a sequence of conditional probability estimates and we get the same score as if it were a single estimate for a single compound random variable.

Brier score not only lacks this property, but you don't even necessarily maintain the ordering of such scores.

Isn't your input your confidence that GPT-4 gives the correct answer, like I'm 100% sure GPT-4 gives the right answer for the capital of France but I'm only 50% sure it gets the ASCII art correct, and 0% for another question which means 100% GPT is wrong?

Because how could he know the probability of getting the correct answer? He just tried and then it's a yes or no.

And if it's right/wrong shouldn't GPT right/wrong 100% of the time for the same question and the same version?

Regarding your last question, ChatGPT isn’t deterministic. It can certainly give a correct answer one time and an incorrect answer another time, for the same prompt.

For the same prompt and same version?

That would be deal breaker if the same prompt gives different results.

Would also make the whole prompt engineering thing pretty useless.

Yes, same prompt and same version. GPT-4 is especially stochastic, even with temperature=0.

So all these comments claiming that an article about the GPT's responses is wrong are useless.

There are also such comments on this article.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37361521

I wonder why that is. Maybe they’re A/B testing assistant prompts, or there’s noise built into the architecture somewhere.

There was a post about it a while back. From what I recall, it’s an efficiency/cost reduction side effect, but it could be made deterministic, if they wanted to eat the cost.

I firmly disagree with your latter two statements, but yes it is non deterministic

> Regarding your last question, ChatGPT isn’t deterministic. It can certainly give a correct answer one time and an incorrect answer another time, for the same prompt.

It's supposed to be deterministic if you set temperature to 0.0, but seems that doesn't work well in GPT4 compared to earlier versions...

It is not deterministic since text-davinci-001.

https://152334h.github.io/blog/non-determinism-in-gpt-4/

Good to know, I thought it was deterministic, especially because of all the comments on other articles where people wrote that the author was crazy for getting a different answer to the same question.

> Isn't your input your confidence that GPT-4 gives the correct answer

You may be right that that’s the intent, however what’s the point (other than collecting data about user confidences)? If I enter 0.3 and GPT provides a correct answer, then that doesn’t mean that the 0.3 was somehow wrong.

In that case 0.3 would be more wrong than 0.4 and less wrong than 0.2. The closer your predictions are to reality over a bunch of questions, the better you understand reality.

You can’t really say that for a single data point. The 0.3 may be completely correct. Now, if you try ten times, things might be different.

Isn't the whole point to show you how right your confidence is about GPT's capabilities?

At least the results are about the quiz taker and his confidence.

It’s a noisy measurement of how right you were.

You're right. But if you enter 0.3 on average over 28 questions and the actual number of true answers differ by a lot from 8 then you have learned your general sense of GPT-4s abilities is uncalibrated.

I got a "Wrong" answer, as I sit here and listen to the worst rendition of "Happy Birthday" ever.

On a more serious note, I'd be interested in a similar test that use's the auto agent stuff, can a sufficiently setup LLM answer any question.

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