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Comment by waihtis | Hacker News Reader

.. and of course, the "rocket man bad" crowd are very anti X for obvious reasons.

Exactly. Whilst many here are still screaming about Twitter / X collapsing with yet 220M+ daily active users. Their predictions were quite deranged:

Prediction 1:

November 2022 was meant to be the time when Twitter / X the social network and service was 'predicted' to implode in the coming weeks after the layoffs [0][1] and not be up and running globally.

Reality: In reality, it is still up and running and working today with hundreds of millions of users using it right now.

Prediction 2:

Threads was supposed to "hollow out Twitter in extremely rapid fashion" [2] and one predicted to give it a couple of months for Threads to do just that.

Reality: Well, we have given it two months and Threads is the one that is hollowing itself out in "extremely rapid fashion" and lost 80% of its users after signing up to the service. [3]

Prediction 3:

The outages Twitter / X had would make the majority of users migrating elsewhere and they will stick around on the new service.

Reality:

Anyone who knows about network effects knows that obviously didn't happen and was less effective since even when Twitter / X went down the users would rather wait for it to get back up than to fully migrate off the network.

Conclusion:

So you see at this point we gave it enough time for the Twitter / X predictions by the doomsday folks and and it seems that all of those predictions were alarmist false prophesies by a few extremely angry techies who won't admit they were incorrect.

[0] https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/11/08/1062886/heres-ho...

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34617964

[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36580669

[3] https://gizmodo.com/threads-has-lost-more-than-80-of-daily-a...

I think a month and a half is way too early to tell how this plays out. Elon keeps mismanaging Twitter, and threads is missing a lot of features to make it even able to compete with Twitter. It's still early days, it really just depends where the most celebrities go. People want to feel like they have the chance of being seen or heard by someone important.

> Threads was supposed to "hollow out Twitter in extremely rapid fashion"

To be fair, in the hands of someone else, it could well have - they shot themselves in the feet with several easy-to-avoid mistakes (no web version, forcing people you don't follow into your feed, etc.)

(My Threads experience was "ok, nice presentation, who is that? block. block. block. wtf. block. block. block. block.block.blockblockblock. I give up." and I haven't been back since the day I signed up.)

Obvious? Maybe ICE driver guilt, but I have never heard a reason that made sense except for some vague accusations that too much fun is being had and that is somehow offensive.

And yeah he’s made some mistakes which I guess is unforgivable because, well, it goes back to fun being offensive.

For the record we're on the same side here.

Thanks for clarifying. To me it's just never obvious what their real issue is. I suspect someone who succeeds at stuff while daring to question everything and have fun at it is just triggering for a lot of folks.

it's the nietzschean slave morality in action

Hah thank you for introducing me to that.

> "the "rocket man bad" crowd are very anti X for obvious reasons"

Who's "rocket man"? Isn't that what Trump called Kim Jong-un?

I guess you're right and there's probably a substantial overlap between those who don't like North Korea and those who don't like Musk's Twitter.

Trump? Do you mean "orange man"?

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