nobody ever asks "hmm what could the establishment be doing wrong that causes this"
but rather everyone jumps to "hmm what could be the conspiracy behind this"?
nobody ever asks "hmm what could the establishment be doing wrong that causes this"
but rather everyone jumps to "hmm what could be the conspiracy behind this"?
We have experienced demographic change. Our birth rates do not, and never will, provide for support of our population numbers. We need immigration or we will live through "Japanisation" - with almost none of our cultures being as tight and homogenous from the beginning to do it as nicely as Japanese. The need for mass immigration - not only of qualified employees, but simply of "bodies" in numbers - is a fact. No amount of far-right wordplay can change that.
How about stop propagandizing against the family unit and children in the name of climate protection and freedom for starters?
(This is obv directed at the German Political Landscape (minus AfD), not you personally)
It never worked in any country. Even in those with, to say the least, highly questionable human rights record and complete control of government over mass media: see China. Or with those with ample resources and willingness to spend them towards this goal: see Sweden.
Women are not having lots of children not because some evil forces are telling them not to, but simply because they can. They never wanted to procreate in "sufficient" numbers, they just didn't have a choice then. If we go as far as to deprive them of that choice, we will completely cancel everything we know as a civilised society - and also fail, because a huge emigration wave will ensue, and if we try to ban emigration, we will quickly fail into economic, technological and cultural irrelevance.
It's a choice between being Japan (controlled, predictable dieoff, slow but certain death), being Iran (nice population growth but...), and being America. To me it sounds like a no-brainer which one of the evils to choose.
The happiest among them are those with children.
Don't take my word for it, just look it up yourself, too tired to pull up the dozens of studies for you.
Clearly women want to have children. Nobody needs to force them to.
But rather, society is (indirectly) forcing them NOT to have them.
No need to deny human nature. Your caricature of a society that has children is complete and utter fantasy which has no bearing on real life. It is a product of aforementioned propaganda.
Before having children they are a burden and a detriment to your lifestyle. After having them they are the best thing that could have happened to you.
"it could just be that people who are successful happen to be hard-working, not that working hard increases your chances of success"
The societal level of denial has reached new heights indeed.
Which takes a lot of effort and hard work.
> They mostly just tuned themselves into ability to get "into right place at the right time"
Which takes a lot of hard work
> then almost idle at 0-10 hours a week for the next 6 months
You have been tricked into thinking so, they just work so much more efficiently at some point and delegate a lot - at which point they are already successful due to their previous hard work
It's both impractical and unpopular for women to raise children and stay at home while doing it. These are the rights they've won; foremost of them is the right for their bloodlines to die out within a few generations.
Our countries resolve this by importing people from countries with more people than they can handle, but if you look at the situation globally, as countries become richer this appears to happen universally. It's a matter of 100 years until we can't play this population shuffling game anymore and we will experience a global fertility and demographic crisis. And what's more, it appears that it is unavoidable and it's not clear if humanity will stabilize to a population level or if these fluctuations are inevitable. See https://fractalfoundation.org/OFC/OFC-6-1.html
This strange obsession with materialism is what lead to kids being considered "inconvenient".
Rather, materialism is and should be considered inconvenient when it comes to what really matters in life (children).
That's the root of the issue.
The problematic part is that most people only understand this after they have children.
Key is choice. People are not having kids for one stupid simple reason - because they can.
This is why the problem is just the same in every civilisation or culture, it is not at all confined to "Western", "Christian", "Liberal" or "Rich" world. It's everywhere without exception, maybe (hopefully) except Israel. Because Haredim don't give their women a choice.
The only thing that's changed is the migration of children from net capital assets for the family to net cost centers. The same thing has happened to animals. What used to be productive workers on the farm are now wholly decadent useless eaters, earning their keep only by being adorable.
Imagine how the calculus of couples saying "we can't afford children" would change if little Timmy could start defraying his own costs in only eight years by doing some basic bookkeeping, junior development tasks, running errands, cooking, personal assistant work, etc for the family. And then becoming a net capital asset from 12 to 20. That's how it was for most of human history, just with slightly less modern tasks.
Not me for sure. If your utmost measure of value in life is GDP, then I feel like we won't understand each other.
Worst part is I can't escape this mindset here, thanks to US billionaires generously bankrolling "NGO's","think tanks" and "independent news outlets"
So we can say, the multiculturalism is not the cause of the wealth. The truth is, the causes of the wealth are the sizeable population, regardless of origin, and the vast natural resources it controls. The US is a westphalian state, run like a business. The European nations once were nation states, but have also adopted this model. It works, if your goal is economic output, and unfortunately your goal must be economic output because otherwise you can't compete militarily with a rival who's goal is economic output and you'll get subsumed.
The "New Colossus" that adorns the Statue of Liberty is a fun little poem, but it does not in any way reflect the actual policies of the United States for much of its early and middle existence. We were a country that was happy to import wealthy people, scientists, conscientious hard workers, etc, while keeping the riffraff out.
The option that policy makers see is 5) bring in enough migrants to maintain healthy demographics and 6) making more domestic babies. 6 is, however, a mirage; no policy we have tried worked (see SK, HK, SG, TW, JP, and many more).
Do I have a solution to this problem? No. But there has to be a solution that doesn't include my country getting a Wikipedia article of it's own about a list of granade attacks commited, like Sweden has...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_grenade_attacks_in_Swe...
So yes, it’s going to be a solution for as long as America has been a country, France as a republic, longer than Germany and Italy united, more than many modern countries have existed. If that’s not a long-term solution, I don’t know what is.
There are no thousand year solutions here. We can only pass the problem to our (many-times) descendants and hope that they figure it out.
In the US, successful assimilations look mostly like this. Kids go to American public schools, start forgetting their parent’s language and culture, leading them to look pretty much like every other American. The Chinese do it much more harshly without a drastic increase in efficiency, so the soft route seems to be the sweet spot. There’s no reason to think that you can’t assimilate them. Discourage mosques, try to disperse high concentrations of non-assimilated cultures, it’s not new and it mostly works.
No policy lasts forever. We’re not looking for the next thousand-year solution to the demographic crises; immigration is the 100-year plan, so to speak. We can’t — and shouldn’t —- try to write policy for the next thousand years. There is no other area in which we demand solutions for more than a century. Eventually this policy too will wear out and our descendants will have to go back to the drawing board.
Extinction. What a strange thing to resign oneself to.
In what way are you far right though? Based on what I read here (pro mass-immigration regardless of skill, against the family unit) I would classify you as far left.
And no i am not at all against family unit. I only accept the objective fact that sustaining population through natural procreation is no longer possible in any halfway advanced society and that measures should be taken to do it otherwise. Anything that gives a chance of doing it through natural procreation will go way beyond acceptable for any Western political entity, no matter far left or far right. A simple proof to that is that it doesn't happen in any rich country anymore - except Israel because of a large chunk of their people bent on religion a lot more than any other free country could accept.
Most people who criticise immigration, housing or other policies in the view of demography, usually have their perception confined to one particular country and come to logical conclusion: "things are bad and getting worse and politicians seem to be moving them even further into wrong direction". If they looked at the world at whole they'd stop blaming their politicians, because same shit happens everywhere - and it is in fact mildest in Western, rich, Protestant, liberal countries.
Regarding your stance on immigration, I don’t know why we should try to keep replacement levels of population. Time will tell, but I suspect in the long run a country like Japan will do fine.
Keeping population always growing seems like a kind-of pyramid scheme to me. Especially if one wants the working populace to provide for the elderly (pensions).
For the last part they're definitely right, IMO, and german politics must find a way to solve the housing problem in big cities. The government must find a way to break the "migrants take away part of your cake" narrative, and this is only possible by increasing the size of the cake.
In this case, we need to aggressively build (and incentivize to build) more housing. We're doing the opposite at the moment, if the german construction industry is to be believed, which is very very bad. Building a house became insanly expensive in the last 20 years, especially in the areas where it is needed most. Redistribution by moving senior tenants in big cities to suburban or rural areas will not solve the shortage, neither will "just go to rural east germany, there's enough housing".
We have to solve these problems and prevent the formation of zero-sum games where migrants are seen as (external) competitors, stat - it'll be an existential social question and a threat to the country (and the long-term perspective of migrants) if we do not, IMO.
This is caused by too many people coming in from vastly different cultures. And so there is nothing wrong with being in favour of vastly reduced immigration numbers.
Your take is to accept high immigration numbers as an unavoidable fact and therefore to only look at how to deal with them, and still only in terms of economics.
- The big one is Islam. Islam seems to be the only religion in modern times that is actually religious. The only religion that can muster up people to actually get really angry about defending it. It's also the only religion the locals are actually scared of in any meaningful way.
- Color. If you have a bunch of local-looking kids meeting up at the mall, nobody thinks anything of it. Get a bunch of brown kids, and people get scared. Walk around as a typical Polish person, nobody will think anything of it. Walk around while brown and people are alerted to the presence of someone who needs to explain themselves. This isn't always mean-spirited and aggressive, but if you're not white you will constantly be asked by curious people how on earth you ended up walking around Copenhagen. "Where are you really from?".
Put these together and many people constantly see that there's a pernicious foreign influence on their society. They feel it's visible, even though probably a lot of the brown folks aren't even religious.
https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2021-02/mietpreise-deutschlan... claims that the lowest rents in 2021 were in Elsterberg in Saxony.
https://interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de/lab/bundestagswahl-2021-k... shows the AfD getting 25.7% of the vote in Elsterberg during the 2021 federal election, ahead of all other parties.
You may worry about the cost of housing in big cities, but I doubt the typical AfD voter does.
The AfD is also strong in Baden-Würtemberg which is traditionally a place with a high population of... well... luddites(?).
These groups might not have the same goals or the same issues they are facing, but what unites them is the feeling that the AfD represents a true opposition to the mainstream political scene.
But people still see the drastic change within a single generation and don't like it. And you can't blame them, if you started settling white people in some African country by the million a year you can very much expect the same from the people who already live there. They'd call it colonialism. And they'd be right, and if they were facing a fertility rate crisis like the west is they'd be screwing themselves over, but you still wouldn't be able to convince them that they have to do it.
But it most certainly doesn't balance out. Either a population grows or it shrinks, when a population grows it can produce more but there are more to feed, when it shrinks it ages, at first you have prosperity from that but eventually you wind up poor and old.
Or we have a society and an economic system designed to push women into the workforce and makes having children an expensive luxury good? That is a policy decision that can be changed. If it were economically beneficial for a woman to have two to four kids instead of grinding 40-50 hour weeks in the office, a lot of women would reevaluate their choices.
And it's much better for us to figure out a sustainable solution now than to wait a generation or two for the world to have a general fertility crisis. Right now it is localized to first-world countries, so we have some time to figure out a solution before things get really dire.
There might not be a sustainable solution, besides a brave new world, but I personally would like to preserve human dignity. It appears that steady state population sizes are a rarity in the natural world and that almost all populations are chaotic and fluctuate. https://fractalfoundation.org/OFC/OFC-6-1.html
Because nobody likes accountability for themselves or for their favourite political establishment.
And because fixing mistakes involves admitting them first, and that’s not something “the establishment” is ever keen on doing.
"In addition to a base of far-right wing support, which makes up 15 percent of the population, the AfD is attracting a protest vote that takes it to slightly more than 20 percent support. This is driven by dissatisfaction with migration policy and a general fear of societal crisis."
People tend to forget that one of the SPD members and former board member of the German Bundesbank wrote a book falsely interpreting data that was pretty racist and became a best seller. And judging from what I have seen it is by far not an outlier case.
Or the fact that the leader of the CSU appealed to the population to report people that suspicious languages in public like Arabic along with countless other extremely racist statements and policies.
The current Green foreign minister of Germany proudly talked about her Grandfather fighting in 1945 at the atlantic council[1].
Germany is as racist as it gets. That's why it has record emigration amongst the most educated population. Germany is one of the least attractive places for expats[2].
For people that like to respond, but Germany took "X" many immigrants. It's a policy that a) wouldn't have been necessary had Europe pushed against interventionism rather than support it, b) has created extremely unsafe environments even for previous Muslim immigrants, and c) was even advised against by the German Islamic council or whatever it's official name is in english as something unreconcilable in society at that pace.
As a result of the incompetence of leadership in the Healthcare sector for example and their outdated tech, they were forced to slip those millions of people into a special status that actually allows for bigger payouts for doctors when treating those people rather than a German retiree that has worked for 40 years(I know this first hand, because I spent time in both policy making and trying to modernize that broken system). Because most people don't know what happens behind the scenes their hatred is not directed towards the incompetent policy makers, but just plainly towards the recipients of the broken system, something that is by the way, entirely human.
It's just sad that the AfD has no coherent strategy of their own. They have no concept beyond keep the old nuclear power plants running; i.e. no concept to fund and develop nuclear energy. They support interventionism while at the same time being anti immigrant. Something other populist leaders like Le Pen have opposed for at least a decade given the strong correlation between the two.
It's also sad that while Germany's election system allows for a plurality of opinions in the parliament, 90% of them are basically an economic uniparty. Something which in theory could have been orders of magnitude better than in the US.
[1] https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/news/transcripts/annalena-ba...
[2] https://www.exberliner.com/english-news-berlin/germany-slips...
Berlin is a case in point. e.g. the story of someone's friend, a single mum, whose huge corporate landlord decided to renovate the apartment in order to double the rent and then force her out of her own neighborhood. Tough luck, people say, that is the price of progress and it is a free market. Well, people are pissed off, and justifiably.
Not even close to true. Most countries in the world are more racist than Germany.
I think you misunderstand Mrs. Baerbock.
She speaks confused and seems a bit stupid, but she does not want to defend the German armies in WW2.
If you're not cognizant of money flows, think tanks, and dark influence patterns continuously whirling and flowing around us, then ... congratulations, I guess. That must be a lovely place to be.
Name me one example for such that drives right-wing thought,
and I'll name you 10 that pull the opposite way.
This is ridiculous, all key power positions, NGOs, and think-thanks are overwhelmingly left-biased.
Theyre really never going to live that one up
But Germany’s far right immigration policy demands would be pretty left in the US, not far left, just left