Record low sea ice led to catastrophic breeding failure of emperor penguins
nature.com
nature.com
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151692/exceptionall...
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-...
(Click on "Antarctic", and then click "Show all years.")
Kinda hard to spin as "it's all a part of natural variability" when the graph looks back at you like that.
* The Arctic graph is also interesting. At first sight it doesn't look that bad, until you zoom in and realize that the bottom of the graph is pretty much entirely 2010s and 2020s.
Edit: Oh, actually you can just change the color scheme and see the Arctic graph sliding down over time! Neat.
1) Tragedy of the Commons by Harding
2) Overshoot by William Catton
There is a sliver of hope that we can successfully decommission fossil fuel energy and master climate engineering, i.e. employ technology to solve global, systemic problems created by technology. But it is hard today to distinguish optimism from delusion.
Oh well, better luck next time humans…
Unfortunately, if we successfully pause global warming via geoengineering, my bet is that'll give us the excuse to slow down or stop CO2 emission curtailment, and that way lies disaster as oceans acidify and food chains fall apart.
[0]: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/srccs_wholer...
[1]: https://ieefa.org/resources/carbon-capture-crux-lessons-lear...
[2]: https://thebulletin.org/2022/09/plagued-by-failures-carbon-c...
Capturing from the general atmosphere, or capturing at the moment of emission? I think those have very different efficiencies.
They are all quite pie in the sky in the sense that they're mostly startups with no operational experience in large scale chemical manufacturing trying to build up plants (and organizations to build the plants) from scratch.
However, at least some of them rely on bog-standard chemistry, and the chemistry only requires chemical reactions that we already perform at industrial scale.
I get the distinct impression that if US said it was going to federalize any oil company that still had net CO2 emissions in 2028 (and also suspend any patents in this space as part of an emergency action), the logistics would magically work themselves out. I'd guess it would only cost a few weeks of oil industry profits (so, ~ $10B) total to prove out a half dozen technologies. At that point, many copies of the top two or three plants could be replicated out globally.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shippin...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratospheric_aerosol_injectio...
Short version: Probably aircraft, but anything that can get aloft and dump aerosols (e.g. SO2) into the upper atmosphere.
The scary thing is it's all quite achievable and isn't even that expensive or complex.
Regarding the issue of speed, the wikipedia article even notes one of the benefits as:
> Speed: A common argument is that stratospheric aerosol injection can take place quickly, and would be able to buy time for carbon sequestration projects such as carbon dioxide air capture to be implemented and start acting over decades and centuries.
And ironically, we don't even have to worry that much about side-effects since the effects of atmospheric aerosols are relatively temporary.
But, again: a) doesn't help with ocean acidification, which threatens entire foodchains, and b) gives an easy out to not do the hard and necessary work of cutting down on CO2 emissions.
That said, at this point, I would make a very sizable bet that a major country or countries will engage in some type of geoengineering within the next, oh... 10 years at the outside? The dangers of allowing global warming to continue to run away are just too high for some nation to not do it, prove it, and pave the way for others to follow.
I bet there's some unknown and undesirable ones, too. Law of unintended consequences on a planetary scale.
Or maybe it's one of those things that won't go out with a bang. It'll just be a slow whimper, as life degrades and there is no emergency "declared".
Ultimately this is a failure of collective action. The mechanism simply isn't there. It certainly isn't democracy.
Which "humans" exactly? First they elect politicians for feel-good green promises, but then when time comes to actually pay the price of becoming "greener" they lose their shit like "I meant all _other_ people to make sacrifices for green future, not _me_!!!". For good examples see Gilets jaunes or recent German walkback from fossil fuel heating systems ban that was supposed to start from 2024.
In 2001, US stance on the Kyoto Protocol held sway, and its ratification might have supercharged global climate efforts / green technological advancements.
It's ironic that some skeptics label what amounts to broad scientific consensus as being part of a "death cult"; classic projection.
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2001/mar/29/globalwa...
Until that isn't the driving force in our society, I can't see much changing sadly.
It's absolutely insane the % of global resources are controlled by so few.
It's not all controlled by a single trillionaire.
Just because these are the biggest funds on earth, does not make them some beautiful steward of your retirement.
Instead of investing in individual stocks like Microsoft, Vanguard's index funds make it easy to invest in e.g. an index of all US stocks, which is less volatile.
What exactly is it you find so sinister about index funds?
And why do you think Vanguard (a co-op) is worse than Fidelity (a publicly traded company which also provides similar retirement index funds)? Is it just because Vanguard's funds are more popular and therefore bigger?
The bad part is that it’s happening way too slow because of a lack of collective action as you suggest.
I don’t believe the problem is fundamentally democracy. Democratic countries have taken action in the past famously with CFCs that was probably unthinkable. But clearly Democracy is insufficient.
We’ve tried several mechanisms but none of them have worked so far.
You realise there's almost a 1:1 correlation between energy use and GDP?
We're not fundamentally reducing the amount of energy we're using, and there's nothing to suggest that we can seriously replace oil with other means. Think plastic etc.
But we should decrease carbon emissions. Partly it will be by turning to fully electrical processes (trains, trucks, etc) and generating more electricity using more solar, wind, and nuclear power plants. Partly it will be by turning to synthetic fuels, again powered by non-fossil-fuel sources. Burning hydrocarbons is fine if you recycle the CO₂ after that.
The goal is to eliminate CO2 emissions, not eliminate the use of oil generally.
For plastics production, that goal could be achieved by migrating extraction, refining, manufacturing, and transport to carbon neutral energy sources.
Of course, moving away from non-biodegradable plastics, in general, is also a good idea for a host of other reasons.
But given oil is also used in, for example, the production of fertilizer, we're probably gonna need to be able to extract it and use it sustainably for a while yet.
We all worked together to boil an egg, so democracy can make a five-tier wedding cake no problem! It’s not that I believe we can’t solve the problem, it’s just a bad metaphor. And that we’ve collectively chosen to value our own comfort over our children and grandchildren.
Probably the last day that we're still around as a species.
Well-off Californians or Londoners may say so and switch to an electric car and a powerwall at home.
People in rural China, in India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia, central Asia, central Africa care much more about putting some food on the table, and about having electricity, and about going around in absence of great public transport infrastructure. So they run thermal power stations, they burn coal, they drive gasoline-powered motorbikes, old Western cars and trucks, because they don't have a serious affordable alternative. They have more salient stuff to care about than penguins.
And they are, in total, literally half the world population.
https://youtu.be/zJdqJu-6ZPo?si=KG_etuletTl4SKgZ
To your point who will make what sacrifice, as that is what is needed but is it reasonable or realistic to expect this? Seem the best approach is we need some serious tech development and fast.
The vast majority of climate impact fits within 1) population, 2) power generation and 3) transportation. No.2 gets a bunch of focus, but 1) and 3) seem far less and sub issues that have little relative impact get far more attention.
People drop simple "we must do something" but it's so complex and I feel ultimately few humans want to make either the real sacrifice needed or investment in change so we're stuck in the middle and along for the ride.
But cars are still needed in many areas, and even in dense cities with excellent public transport. In this role, electric cars are strictly better than gasoline cars, because they can be powered by solar or hydro or wind or nuclear energy right now.
Also, I know a number of people who despise dense cities and want suburbia or countryside. Again, if they could fuel their cars from solar panels on their roofs (or shopping center roofs, parking lot roofs, etc), it would be strictly better than burning more oil.
Displace oil with something better and you can win.
Unfortunately people become climate activists instead of engineers. Demand someone else fix things.
It's not the people ignoring the issue. It's the people actively working against a solution.
I imagine folks might get going if they ever manage to set a river on fire?
Sea ice extent (click Switch Hemisphere - they like to hide this info):
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/seaice/
Sea temperature (breakout of seasonal cycle):
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
Air temperature (lingering at all-time-highs):
The Antarctic sea ice for 2023 has a noticeable delta.
Comparing between Aug 23, 2022 and Aug 23, 2023 the difference is 1,452 million km^2 which is hard to visualise.
If it were a country it would be the 19th largest country [0]
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependen...
The entire global ecosystem faces collapse IMO within 10 years or so.
The heating seems to have reached a tipping point.
The best thing for every non-human plant and animal on the planet would be for all humans to vanish overnight.
I have good news and I have bad news...
You might want to ask a few farmers about that. Especially about how most of their livestock would fare.
OTOH - the U.S. alone has something like half a billion chickens. Mostly live locked up in huge metal sheds on factory farms. Similar ~1/4 billion turkeys. The humans go "poof" ...and those metal sheds probably don't have any "peck here for 30 seconds to open emergency exit" doors. Zero of the trucks which deliver the chicken and turkey feed, the high-intensity farming operations which are growing that feed, and the processing facilities blending it will just keep running due to some sort of Narrative Momentum trope.
I'm not familiar with factory farming of pigs (about 22 million in the U.S.), but I suspect similar issues.
It's like they don't. But such an event would pale in comparison with the turnover as it stands
Fair warning that he’s a bit of a lightning rod for controversy due in large part to his relatively centrist views on exactly these and similarly hot button issues.
Bluntly, your little prognostication, here, is based on nothing. Is 2023 a wicked outlier in the global climate? Absolutely. Is global warming continuing to progress as humanity fails to move quickly enough to change our ways? Absolutely.
But this is one year. A single data point. It's absurd to come to such an extreme conclusion based on a single year of (admittedly very scary) data.
If anything, I'm hoping this year will serve as a wake-up call for more people who might've previously been on the fence about the nature and severity of climate change, and will thus accelerate moves by people and their governments to do more about it.
That comment, both it's content and it's implications, are yours. If you're gonna run away from it now, you shouldn't have written it in the first place.
Everywhere its easy to see evidence of the tipping point accelerating.
There's extremely good reason to panic at this stage.
>> But this is one year. A single data point. It's absurd to come to such an extreme conclusion based on a single year of (admittedly very scary) data.
Nope - this year is part of a statistical heat trend. It's not up and down, some years cooler, some warmer. It's getting hotter every year.
Plants and animals and the ocean ecosystem will be devastated by this.
The human food supply depends on seasons, and seasons are being massively disrupted. If plants don't product food then that's a big problem.
I would wonder what do you gain from denying this is where the problem has got to? Why do you need it to not be at catastrophe level right now?
Cool, let's start here, then: what tipping points are you referring to, specifically, and what is the evidence that they're accelerating?
To be clear: ocean temperatures are unusually high this year relative to historic trends, but with just this one year as a major outlier, there's no basis to conclude a tipping point has been reached, especially given El Nino muddies the data.
As for atmospheric temperature, 2023 is likely to be a warmest year on record, but January to July 2016 was hotter, so there no reason to believe 2023 will be wildly outside the current trendline (which, to be clear, is up and to the right):
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/g...
> Why do you need it to not be at catastrophe level right now?
Why do I dispute unsupported claims that the earth is now on an irreversible course to climate disaster that will destroy the human race?
The answer is literally in the first paragraph of my first reply. Go read it again. It seems silly to repeat myself.
Let's not understate this. The OP article is regarding a record low in 2022, but this year (2023) we've now also seen a sustained 5-sigma deviation in sea ice extent.
https://twitter.com/EliotJacobson/status/1674736887322533888
> alarmist and counterproductive
I think we ought have been alarmed long ago. Rhetoric of restrained caution hasn't really served us well.
This one year, or the year previous, is not evidence that the ecosystem of the planet is going to collapse in 10 years.
It's one year in a long and alarming trendline, but to extrapolate that to such an extreme conclusion is completely unwarranted.
> Rhetoric of restrained caution hasn't really served us well.
First, I didn't suggest "restrained caution". I can only speculate as to how you came to that conclusion.
Second, rhetoric that we're all gonna die by 2030 and nothing can be done is far more harmful.
Global warming writ large has been going on for a lot longer than a couple of years, and ocean temperature tipping points have been an anticipated consequence. An anomaly of this size warrants alarm. If not proof of imminent ecosystem collapse, it seems foolish to 'wait and see'. Though I take your point that defeatism is worse, but I doubt OP is defeatist.
> rhetoric that we're all gonna die by 2030
That's an even more sensationalist spin than what the OP wrote
Yes, it does.
> If not proof of imminent ecosystem collapse, it seems foolish to 'wait and see'.
Jesus Christ. I never said that.
Read what I wrote, not what you think I wrote.
> Though I take your point that defeatism is worse, but I doubt OP is defeatist.
You should also try re-reading what they wrote.
> That's an even more sensationalist spin than what the OP wrote
Fair point. The OP didn't say we'd all die by 2030. Just that the climate would collapse. My bad.
Never claimed you did.
> You should also try re-reading what they wrote.
It was hyperbole, and given the moment we find ourselves in, I'll take it over the popular complacency that has characterised the last many decades
It will be a long, slow, boring grind taking place over generations. It already has been. I'm 43 and 66% of the world population is younger than me. I remember there were lots more insects (and amphibians and birds!) when I was a child. That's not considered a crisis for some reason, there's never been a protest about bugs as far as I can tell, and never some apocalyptic "Ahh, all the bugs just died!" moment. It's been "Ho hum, let me spray some more pesticide on my lawn to kill those pesky grubs again" the whole way.
The next generation will have never known what it was like to have XYZ plant or animal or insect or fish around, and they won't miss it.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/02/24/1082752...
A staggering loss that suggests the very fabric of North America’s ecosystem is unraveling. Cornell Lab director John Fitzpatrick and study coauthor Peter Marra
It could take many decades or even centuries for most of the damage to be done. We're trying our hardest to speed it up, but yeah, there's a big reservoir to burn through and most of the time it will look like things are standing still.
Saying that everything is going to unravel in 10 years and collapse is going to turn out to not be true, even if the underlying dynamic is inexorably pointing in a bad direction and headed that way.
Gonna be that guy and point out 10 years ago someone was saying we face collapse in 10 years.
Fearmongering like a broken record does not change the fact that it's fearmongering.
But you are right with every shift in biodiversity there are consequences for food chains, etc. No such thing as a "distant event" - it's not just about (magnificent!) penguins, it's about the intricate, interdependent web of life we rely on (lots of unsung heroes in biodiversity).
Compartmentalization and thinking that all of this is remote to our human experience / survival is a complete illusion.
If we are the stewards of this planet, we're called to ack and act with urgency.
At least if you agree that the dollar won't be useful once we have total global ecosystem collapse.
> God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference
Since I cannot change this, I just need the wisdom to know the difference and the serenity to accept it.
What political options and movements do you support, for example? Have you gone out and participate in climate protests and the like? It's not much, but it's what we can do as citizens.
The world changes through politics, and we should do more to participate actively in it.
I think it’s good to counter these arguments where they come up if only to leave behind something for a future curious reader unsure of what to do.
They simply follow the capitalistic imperative - optimize capital gains. We - the society - on the other hand, have no such imperative to follow and can’t even decide what we want. Some think the capitalism needs to restricted to ethical boundaries, others think the former are evil communists.
If people weren’t so echo-chambered and isolated to ideas different than their own, perhaps one day we could decide what our universal priorities and values as humanity are. Are they about maximizing capital, or preserving our planet and survival? Or maybe they are about something else.
But we can’t even begin to have a serious discussion about this with the overwhelming majority of people today. And that would be just the first step to change.
So I really think we are powerless to change how capitalism is dooming the planet. There are probably some people in the world capable of changing this - governments, presidents, kings, hedge fund managers, religious figures, and maybe some other leaders. I can’t make the needle move much even if I spend my life doing it. I’m just not in a position of power large enough to steer capitalism itself on a global scale.
Steering things on a global scale shouldn’t be the goal to begin with at the individual level. This isn’t the needle individuals need to try to move.
You absolutely can make a difference though. Change starts with you and me. And then the people around us. The way we choose to spend our money. By getting involved in our local governments. By supporting organizations that take action. By volunteering to take action.
Every movement starts with an individual. Every massive human endeavor has required the collective effort of many individuals, and this is no different.
I think seeing what the french convention for the climate produced is really helpful. I had flaws of course but overall a very positive opportunity that has been definitely further refined with the convention for the end of life. And now we are already seeing a push for others one to tackle the pension crisis in France.
These are real political alternatives, as of now, there is little real power that are given to these. But mostly people don't even know what's possible so they're just not pushed by the public.
I believe pushing for more popular power and better (real) representation that's not tied to voting is our only way of addressing the corruption that's present in our political systems, dominated by oligarchic/elitist/plutocratic ideas. We are not powerless, it's possible, we just need to be aware of what are the right alternatives that we ought to push for and start coordinating to bring these to the masses.
At the very least, I believe, different social movements should be pushing for the same "tools" to be used to address the problem. I know climate change groups push for something similar to the citizen's convention for the climate in their own respective countries. But these things are "new". I encourage you to take a look at the books I recommended in the beginning, see if maybe your perspective is shifted a bit and you become a little more optimistic :)
There is no political solution. There’s no hope of any government taking any meaningful action. It’s all words and greenwashing. A substantial reduction in consumption for everyone? Blame companies all you like, but companies don’t sell what people aren’t buying. Consumers around the world aren’t going to scale back consumption by double digit percentages in less than a decade. They’ll revolt against anyone who tried to make them.
There’s no technical solution that can come on line fast enough. Renewable energy is just not going to scale up scale that fast. Especially not when governments are still subsidising fossil fuel, opening new coal mines, and coal power plants.
So what’s left? You can hope that the ‘worst case’ scenarios aren’t that bad, (and hope even harder that the scenarios the official reports deliberately omit the worst of the worst case scenarios, never happen). And even in the best case scenarios if we don’t reduce carbon emissions we’re going to see famine, pestilence and war. Maybe in the end war will accomplish what politics couldn’t. If we destroy enough of the world’s economies it might be enough to stop all the ice melting completely.
Although for the citizens convention for the climate in France from the ~180 proposals only 30ish were approved by congress. So this shows the tension between what people might want and what congress is willing to pass; probably because congress is under a much higher pressure from lobbying, so they're much less bold.
But really, my point here is that there are political alternatives. These are not very well known but they're very much real. I know climate movements and activists in other countries, such as Norway, are very much aware of these and these are the policies they want to push for.
So I would say, really, there's a big difference between not knowing and not being involved and actually not any viable alternatives to the problem being out there. I would say the first step is awareness and is involvement. Literally, just talking about it in a serious manner and not simply going "ugh, but politics is so useless!". Ask yourself why and what is being done and what people are trying out there. Because a lot is being tried, particularly in Europe. Just get involved locally and bring these ideas forward.
Basically what I'm saying is we should be pushing for a "let us actually decide for ourselves" movement rather than specifically something about climate. And this I believe is something a lot of people can agree on, from the current polarized political spectrum. As there is a very real crisis of representation in our democracies. No one likes politicians.
There's simply too much bureaucracy to overcome, too many fingers in the pot, too many laws blocking expediency. The USA is a broken cruise liner full speed ahead to climate destruction and it won't be stopped without blood.
The one thing we can change is ourselves, and when we do, it impacts the people around us.
The only thing guaranteed to doom us all is if everyone adopts the mindset that “I can’t do anything”.
Maybe we can’t individually, but collectively, markets shift, political will shifts, and our preparedness for harder days ahead improves.
We can’t undo the damage that has been done, but individual action still remains critical, and increasingly so.
Yes, if you attribute all emissions to the company that originally took the fossil fuels out of the ground (“Scope 3 - use of sold products”), you get a fairly small list, for the simple reason that there aren’t that many energy companies in the world. But all of those “sold products” are being sold to somebody, presumably for a reason. So there are a bunch of ways to tackle the problem, both upstream (only 100 companies need to stop selling fossil fuels to massively reduce emissions!) and downstream (every drop in demand for those companies’ products!)
I know the study you are referencing and this is an extremely bad and inaccurate summary of it.
What it said was that 71% of emissions traced back to 100 entities ( including both companies and states - “china” is one of the entities iirc ) and attributed emissions from the use of fossil fuels to the entity that extracted it
Fossil fuels are used for a lot of useful things that make the world go round and significantly improve the quality of life of much of humanity - food production , shipping and transport, industry, construction. You almost certainly are responsible for some of this consumption, as is most everyone else alive.
If these 100 entities stopped production of fossil fuels, we would have mass starvation and impoverishment, not paradise.
Those companies make things that you buy. If you didn't buy them, they wouldn't make them.
Ultimately all of this can be drawn back to the consumption of the individual.
I think it's more accurate to say they have _some_ fault AND no choice, because the world was already there, they existence wouldn't change anything and there's nothing one can do to change it (i mean, ordinary people like us).
We have marketing, media, teachers, society, manipulating us since we were kids.
Make good choices to reduce your emissions footprint.
Don't breed.
Vote for parties that believe in and act on doing something about climate change.
This is rhetorical sleight of hand. If "you" don't by them, literally nothing changes, because you constitute some insignificant portion of the market. What you mean is If millions of people didn't buy them, they wouldn't make them., but the parent is one person, not millions of people, and therefore their comment is entirely correct.
Here's a handy rule of thumb--if some problem is so intractable or of such a grand scale that you could devote every waking moment of your life to solving it without making a discernable impact, then it is so utterly beyond your control that you should not feel compelled to make non-trivial personal sacrifices when you know damn well that they are utterly meaningless in the grand scheme of things. Vote, donate, and try to enjoy yourself. Or better yet, devote your time and emotional energy to a problem that's actually in your power to address in a meaningful way.
At the same time he flys from LA to Europe 5+ times a year.
It's hard to truly live ethically in such a deeply unethical world.
Both are actually the same thing; methods for emotionally dealing with the existential crisis on whose direction they cannot exert enough pressure to be observable.
Think back to the times of slavery. You could've said: "I don't own any slaves, so there's nothing I can do". In the end, we did the right thing, but unfortunately after much human suffering. Hopefully we don't wait even longer this time around. There were many things you could've done to help. You could've avoided buying from places that used slave labor. You could've voted for abolitionists. You could've donated to the cause. You could've stood for justice when serving on a jury. You could've convinced your friends that things had to change.
You as an individual may be individually directly responsible for a small amount, but you are probably responsible for a greater than average amount. The little changes that you make will make a bigger difference than most people's. You can also be indirectly responsible for a much greater amount. Talking to your friends about the environment can have a greater effect than you acting alone. People don't realize just how much better EVs are, induction stoves are, heat pumps are, solar panels are, etc, if they haven't heard the benefits. Help to open their eyes.
Your vote also likely controls a far greater amount than you are giving it credit for. Margins of victory are often small, and a few people thinking of the medium and long term can make a big difference.
From personal experience of when I went vegan for a year and rode a bike everywhere, people really don't want to hear it. I went out of my way not to talk about it unless people specifically asked me about it, and even then, they didn't want to hear it. Regardless of what you say when questioned, they either think you're sanctimonious and/or they will start associating their guilt and negative feelings with you. The end result is that you start getting frozen out. If you no longer eat meat, you stop getting invited to the BBQ, or the meal at the steakhouse, and when you stop getting invitations to these events, you stop getting invites to others because you're getting pushed further and further to the periphery. People are tribal and they don't want to feel bad about things they enjoy. It is far more likely that you will get kicked out of the tribe rather than the tribe changing it's behaviour to match yours.
It's not about convincing people to change their behavior directly though. People hate being told what to do. It's also hard to guilt someone into change. Some of the changes are just no-brainers though. Plenty of people try veganism and give it up. How many people try an EV then give it up? (I don't actually know, but it doesn't seem like many. They're so fun to drive.) More upfront cost, yes, and that may be the reason not to get one, but it pays for itself over time. Same with an induction stove. Who actually likes being in a superheated kitchen on a summer day? Who likes how much harder it is to clean a gas stove? The risk of burning yourself or starting a fire? Worst case: some of your pots don't work and you have to replace them.
You don't have to mention this stuff out of the blue, but if someone is thinking of redoing their kitchen? That's the time. Buying a new car? That's the time. Someone has money to invest? Get some solar panels instead.
If you aren't part of the solution, you're part of the problem.
As long as we keep falling for the illusion of continually being able to always "buy ourselves out of this" we won't impose any of the drastic changes that would actually be called for.
"we'll just set up HEPA filters everywhere in our house", "we've got good AC", "we'll move to a safer area, where x is unlikely", etc
Our consumer mindset won't solve this issue, eventually this will get even the richest and the smartest.
Defeatist or dystopian mindsets won't get us anywhere. In a way the current trend of "let's keep everything as it was, at all costs" is its own form of utopian ideology for example.
Why can't we create other more productive and smart utopian stories instead? Something to aspire to? I'm always reminded of (old) Star Trek.
As the delivery channel for those stories, my hope lies in computer games and maybe even VR computer games. I'm probably out of the loop though, could be that watching TV / movies really is that important again / still. Whatever the channel then, actually new stories are what we need.
What I do not believe is that we will choose to do so. Not in time, anyway. Not enough new stories, not enough Übermenschen writing new values on new tablets. The first wave of climate refugees from Syria found a cold welcome. How will climate refugees be received when there are 50 million of them? I want it to be like Star Trek, but in my heart I know they will fare like the ancient Egyptians treated the Sea Peoples.
That said, I try to tread lightly, even though, there is really no "treading lightly" anymore. There is no sustainable modern way of life available to us. Even moving to a farm to live off the land and raise animals is not workable for 8 billion people. We are utterly hosed.
I pick up trash and litter, sometimes for hours. I put a little lipstick on this pig from time to time.
Being a climatologist is like being a prophet, in the old Biblical sense. Wrath will be visited upon us if we do not change our avaricious and prideful ways. Some people change, but not enough. The wrath of God still comes, just like it was foretold in the holy equations and the great models. Paradise has burned, the land of flowers will fall into the intemperate sea.
Amazing that we are watching all these other species go extinct but think we will somehow survive.
Far from watching them all go extinct, we don't even know how many species there are - most people only pay attention to the cute and cuddly anthropomorphised ones like penguins and koalas. Many species will be gone without humans ever having been aware of them or their role in the ecosystem.
Truly humans are the virus. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5foZIKuEWQ
How about the earth has greened by 15% in the recent decade, turning semi arid regions into forests. How about the coral reefs that were in absolute collapse are coming back?
Somehow only the maximum gloom and doom is communicated…
Talking about the positives doesn't negate the negatives, and frankly looking on the bright side of climate change is like talking about how great the last dinner on the titantic was.
Unfortunately, nobody cares about good news. Sure, we all like good news but it doesn’t drive engagement so massive companies can’t profit off of it.
If you look for it, there is good news out there. Advancements in green energy (specifically solar) and battery tech is really encouraging, and there’s so much more happening to counter act climate change. But climate change being a hoax is still something a large portion of the world’s political parties still ideologically tie themselves to. Until it get much worse, they will continue to claw to that lie. And as long as that lie continues, we’ll need stories like this.
There is an urgent, multi-layered problem to solve. Needing to feel good through this is pathetic. Humanity at its weakest.
"According to a major scientific review, global insect populations are hurtling towards exctinction, threatening a "catastrophic collapse of nature's ecosystems". The research found that 41 percent of the world's insect populations are declining while a third are endangered. The extinction rate of insects is eight times faster than mammals, birds and reptiles and there are suggestions that they could totally vanish within a century." [0]
[0] https://www.statista.com/chart/16960/percentage-decline-in-s...
The recovery stopped last year, and we're heading into El Nino conditions which will probably cause another mass bleaching:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/aug/09/recovery...
> "100% coral mortality" found in coral reef restoration site off Florida as ocean temperatures soar
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coral-reef-mortality-florida-oc...
(Transcription: a man in a tattered business suit sits across a campfire from some children who are listening to him speak.)
That is why I don't understand money.
Money should be something that represents intention of sustainability, of creating value for future generations.
Not this.
I don't think we can reach Star Trek with money. We have to get rid of it and build a different society.
Pick the country most hostile towards capitalism/shareholders, and you’ll still be looking at a polluter and contributor to climate change.
The cartoon could just as easily be rewritten to “for a beautiful moment in time we let people have lots of autonomy in how they wanted to live”.
Who are “we”? And what exactly are you asking “us” to do?
The only thing I know is that the more I observe the stupidity of our species and the governments on this planet, which are somewhat all prone to egocentric corruptions and therefore stupid decisions in exchange for money ... doesn't work.
I mean, we are collectively destroying our habitat, not even having a backup colony on our moon, not even wanting to go for space other than territorial dispute. And what is the reason why we don't do this? So that we can drive our sports cars to impress others?
I meanwhile think that the only way to progress to a different society class (e.g. Type II and beyond) is if we decide to accept a rational system as our leading guidance at all cost. Be it a "Super AI" or a cybernetic system that combines all knowledge without forgetting it, doesn't matter.
But what matters is that the current state of how we divide powers (in the sense of democracy, communism, socialism etc) doesn't work because there are people involved that don't give a damn. And those that don't give a damn are the ones that benefit the most from the system, and are able to reach the top much easier than people that are not willing to compromise on their ideals. The system(s) have to be redesigned so that the incentive of that changes.
How to do that? I don't know, I'm a monkey that was trained to reach out for more bananas.
In Star Trek, they can do away with money primarily because the invention of the replicator (and other tech) taking care of the basic needs of society, which lessens the need for competition between people. If you've got robots that can clean sewers and a machine that can print food from thin air, you no longer need a complex system of competition to allocate who is doing the shit jobs and who is eating the shit food. We're currently all still chimpanzees fighting each other to the death, we've just abstracted the violence away to such an extent that you don't see it anymore. The losers are still dying in droves, but they're dying to stuff like overdoses, homelessness, or not being able to access the doctors and healthcare their wealthy counterparts can.
In my opinion, short of inventing the replicator, the absolute best thing we can do as a species is to get a mass produced humanoid robot that can be controlled via VR built as soon as possible. We then get people doing undesirable jobs to control the robots and train an AI until it gets to the point where it can do the job without a human on the other end. Not only do we free up all those people from doing shit jobs, we can retrain them to work on other pressing problems, like curing diseases or even one day far in the future, building a replicator.
With the idea that people cannot be hired anymore compared to a robot, because the economic incentive isn't there anymore.
My hope for basic income is still there, as this would allow a shift from a system that only has economic incentive to a system that has creativity and an aspirational incentive. Basic income would provide that, because nobody needs to work just to be able to exist, and they can then focus on "what they actually really want" in life. The argument that nobody wants to work in life is a little stupid, because I think that people want to do something when they're way too bored.
Whether that's just shitty prank videos or research is up to our society, and if we make it "famous" to be smart then the incentive is much higher to do research.
The economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of the environment.
https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/18/1729/2022/
> ...changes in atmospheric circulation, wind stress and thermodynamic processes linked to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
>...Thus, projections of future Antarctic sea-ice extent and the associated climate implications are highly uncertain.
Steady rise then big rise and then a crash regressing to the mean. Point is - we don't know.
I did change the last sentence to clarify the data a bit.
What's being observed is not a regression to the mean, it's a system under external forcing. That's hard to predict, but it doesn't justify pseudoscientific denialism.
>The long-term increase in sea ice near the coast of Antarctica has been explained by a delayed response to orbital forcing and the long memory of the SO (Renssen et al., 2005).
The "rise" since 1975 also has not been "steady", as can be seen clearly in the graph:
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:ClimateDashboard-Ant...
Here’s a better chart:
https://www.climate.gov/media/15124
Certainly recent correction but an upwards trend since 1979 (when satellite data started) and a recent large spine up followed by a more recent large spine down.
There are many potential inputs to thus. Man made climate change is possibly one but not a dominate one probably.
Sea ice extent cycles from a maximum to a minimum every year.
The maximum extent has been pushing outwards a bit as more of the core ice volume has melted, and the minimum extent, in recent years, has sharply (greater than five sigma drop against data since 1970s) dropped as sections of the Antarctic now see summer time ice free beaches.
The minimum extent complement to your graphic (that you posted below):
https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/styles/full_widt...
A lengthy discussion:
Understanding climate: Antarctic sea ice extent
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/...
I don't know of any situations in statistics where a 5 sigma drop is considering "regressing to the mean".
There are many variables. And when a few things come together there are rare but large variations. Articles like this are just climate hysteria for climate doomers. So much of this has been politicized that people don’t even realize they’re reading propaganda.
Yes the climate was warmed a bit over the last 40 years after decades of cooling which was preceded by a warming period. The 1930s were the warmest of the 20th century and then we saw decades of cooling.
And yes carbon likely plays a role as we can model an atmosphere and see this. But it’s probably not as significant as the hundreds of other natural variables. Besides for every degree of warming in a lab you need exponentially more carbon. So it’s difficult to accelerate.
Slowly move towards non-carbon energy over the next 50 years. We’ll be fine.
And yet, thousands of scientists who spend their entire careers on figuring this out are pretty damn sure what's driving current warming: it's greenhouse gases, primarily CO2. They use this thing called the scientific method, which includes a whole bunch of actually measuring, modeling, predicting, and checking each other's work. Forgive me if that isn't a whole lot more convincing than some offhand conversation with an unknown person on a tech news site.