A study of research on the psychology of expertise in weather forecasting
mitpress.mit.edu
mitpress.mit.edu
I reckon this will prove to be untrue.
> Early weather forecasts were made by meteorologists, who laboriously constructed contour maps of temperature and other variables by hand, using experience and tradecraft to fill in between sparse observations
> However, the skill of computer forecasts has improved steadily over time, and modeling is now the primary approach for making operational weather forecasts.
from Nation Academy of Science (USA) https://doi.org/10.17226/23650.
I was watching the weather for the last few days for any chance of rain to determine how much I might need to water my garden. There was no rain forecast yesterday. Then overnight we had a downpour out of nowhere, a couple of inches total.
This is how it's always been. It's a game of guessing the future based on observations of the present. Like picking stocks, it doesn't work very well.
A bit like how the quality of a science journalist has more impact on the quality of reported science than the quality of the science.