It will take until 2024 for the job market to recover. The ARM IPO will be the first bell weather this year to gauge confidence in the tech sector.
Social media commentary has been trending towards outright hostility towards the rich and politicians, not just in the usual discourse hellholes like Reddit and Xitter, but even here (I have access to dashboards that model and weight discourse; technically proprietary though so I can’t divulge too much.)
Too many people with too much time on their hands, with little expectation of help from the system will foster sentiment it is time replace the system. I don’t disagree but think it should be handled intentionally, not waved off until last minute like we did with covid and climate change.
In the US there are only 1 million LEO but an order of magnitude more of people who stand to lose it all if austerity for the proles goes on too long.
The fact that so much capital is fleeing everywhere else into the US shows that the people at the top have gotten everything locked down here. Nothing major is really coming. The progressive left is effectively dead, the far right is gasping its last breath. Where is this rebellion going to come from?
It won’t be an organized revolution but single unknowable moment which triggers a bunch of people say “fuck this shit”.
Because you’re right; traditional political groups are fading away as people realize everybody is being boned.
The people in charge today have things locked up. Generational churn is an active process. New leadership may be intentionally worse or unintentionally inept.
It’s like trying to predict the next pandemic, not so much a market crash. Markets are social systems and can be sorted socially. Moments that trigger sudden social unrest are more like pandemics; less frequent, trying to predict them involves many more variables.
Take with a grain of salt of course given Chamath's public performance history.