US Housing Affordability Hits Worst Point in Nearly Four Decades
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
If you're not buying another house, how does that change the net availability? You're not buying or selling.
This odd lots episode is a pretty good discussion on the whole subject: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-24/how-the-h...
So, by your definition, did I contribute to the auto shortage?
If they purchased this property at e.g. 7% or more, you may have a point.
I view this as basically left-wing science denialism. The right has climate, the left denies the overwhelming consensus of economists as to the cause of housing affordability crises (it's supply and bad policy, not blackstone). [0]. Institutional investors own less than 3% of rental homes, which is a minority of overall homes and disproportionately buy homes that were not fit for sale anyways (so-called fixer uppers).
[0]: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/19/opinion/affordable-housin...
They owned 74.4% of rental units in 2015 https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/who-owns-rental-properties...
Given the extensive reporting that they have been growing their share certainly it is even higher 8 years later.
Nobody is stupid enough to own an apartment complex in their own personal name without the protections of some kind of corporate structure. If that and/or a number of units owned that is lower than the size of an apartment complex are part of the definition of "institutional investor," the definition is circular.
Note I messed up and it is just over 50% of units.
This is what I mean about left-wing science denialism. Try even reading your own article
1. "According to the RHFS, individual investors were the biggest group in the rental housing market in 2015, accounting for 74.4 percent, or 16.7 million rental properties, followed by limited liability partnerships (LLPs), limited partnerships (LPs), or limited liability companies (LLCs) (14.8 percent);"
This is literally the exact opposite of your claim. But let's pretend that your claim was correct:
2. They're price takers.
3. Why is this a bad thing? If this were true (it isn't), then they're basically the only people who will rent at all anymore. The alternative is net worse for affordability - places without institutional investors have far fewer shares of people renting because there is literally nobody offering places for rent.
e: And of course I'm downvoted simply for pointing out that the article linked says the opposite of the claim.
Isn't the very next sentence "However, because the share of rental properties owned by individual investors tends to decrease with the property size, individual investors owned less than half (47.8 percent) of rental units, followed by LLPs, LPs, or LLCs (33.2 percent), trustees for estates (3.3 percent), real estate corporations (3.3 percent), and nonprofit organizations (3.2 percent)."
Which makes it seem like the article is claiming the number is 52.2%—somewhere in between your original claim of 3%, and the GP's claim of 74.4%.
> Institutional investors own the vast majority of rental units
False - individual investors + trustees own the majority. Institutional investors are nowhere close to the size of a 'vast majority', especially when you consider that many individual investors choose to work through LLCs.
My claim:
> Institutional investors own less than 3% of rental homes
This is referring to single-family homes - I could probably have been more explicit when using the term 'home' above, but I was also replying to a comment specifically about SFH so I thought it was obvious from context.
Probably most of the discrepancy comes from 'institutional investor' not being a well defined term. If we are discussing megacorp, it is closer to the 3% number I have mentioned. If we are discussing mom & pop operating behind LLC, it is likely higher.
It is not as easy as "only C Corps are big"...
Especially since the linked article says it is >50% per unit which supports my point.
So big investors are good for housing because they increase demand for housing driving up the price because they offer rentals?
You are pretending that the investors are providing the housing here while ignoring that they are taking away housing that would be available.
Investors building units provide housing. Investors buying housing and renting it out do not.
I don't think it's productive so I'm not going to continue responding to you but I encourage anyone looking at this thread to actually read the article as this person is just blatantly mis-stating it repeatedly.
It says that institutional investors are 14.8% of properties and ~36% of units or less. Neither of these are '>50% per unit', nor are they '77.4% of rental units', nor are they a 'vast majority of rental units', all of which have been stated at various times by this commentator.
You are each failing to actually read what the other is writing. One of you is talking about properties and one of you is talking about units.
Individual investors account for 74.4% of properties, according to the article you two are both citing:
> According to the RHFS, individual investors were the biggest group in the rental housing market in 2015, accounting for 74.4 percent, or 16.7 million rental properties
but institutional investors own a majority of the units:
> Institutional investors own a growing share of the nation’s 22.5 million rental properties and a majority of the 47.5 million units contained in those properties
In addition, you are using a different definition of "institutional investor" than the article.
No, I was originally talking about SFH properties as that was what the first post by 'TeckPerspecc' in the thread was talking about. Then when 'Guvante' responded and pivoted to units (not relevant to the original discussion of SFH), I pointed out that the article did not support their successive claims that the 'vast majority', '74%', or '>50%' of units were owned by institutional investors.
> but institutional investors own a majority of the units:
Read the article, it literally says the opposite of this. As I said, even under a very generous interpretation of institutional investor, they own at max ~36% of units. You conveniently only quote something about 'a growing share' because it is flat-out false that institutional investors own a majority of the units.
> In addition, you are using a different definition of "institutional investor" than the article.
Yes, my 3% claim for SFH uses a different definition of institutional investor, but that is irrelevant to the veracity of the claims you and 'Guvante' are making about the "majority of the units."
I do not agree that I have failed to read any of the claims. What has happened is both you and the other commentator have repeatedly mis-stated the numbers in the article. It is frustrating to lay this out quite explicitly and get another comment that completely fails to miss the nuance.
Not quite. He quoted the article about units. Your first response only talked about properties:
> This is what I mean about left-wing science denialism. Try even reading your own article
> 1. "According to the RHFS, individual investors were the biggest group in the rental housing market in 2015, accounting for 74.4 percent, or 16.7 million rental properties, followed by limited liability partnerships (LLPs), limited partnerships (LPs), or limited liability companies (LLCs) (14.8 percent);"
Perhaps you intended to also address units, but if so you forgot or accidentally lost it on an edit or something.
He responded again noting that the article says institutional investors own more than 50% of units. You then responded accusing him of blatantly misrepresent the article, again quoted the numbers from it on properties but also at least this time also gave numbers for units.
> What has happened is both you and the other commentator have repeatedly mis-stated the numbers in the article
OK, first of all since I have only posted once (before this comment) on this matter it is not possible that I have "repeatedly" misstated anything. I have at most misstated something once.
Second of all, here's the first sentence of the article:
> Institutional investors own a growing share of the nation’s 22.5 million rental properties and a majority of the 47.5 million units contained in those properties.
It is making four independent claims:
1. The nation has 22.5 million rental properties,
2. Those 22.5 million properties contain 47.5 million units,
3. Institutional investors own a majority of those 47.5 million units,
4. The share of rental properties owned by institutional investors is growing.
I do not agree with them on #3. From Table 1B they have individual investors at 47.3% of units and trustees for estates at 3.3%, which together is 51.1% and trustees for estates cannot reasonably count as institutional investors. Several of the others that they are also apparently including when they say institutional investors own more that 50% are also things I would not count as institutional investors.
Nevertheless, Guvante's claiming that the article says institutional investors own a majority of units is not a misrepresentation of the article, because the article in fact says that.
That the article's assertion is based on a completely stupid definition of "institutional investor" does not make Guvante's of the article a misrepresentation.
What should have happened in the discussion is this:
1. Guvante should have used properties, not units, or explained why he thought switching to units was more relevant. Or he should have just been more careful in reading, because I think he may have mixed up properties and units.
2. You should not have accused him of not reading the article right before immediately quoting a part of the article that had nothing to do with his claim.
3. When he then, correctly, pointed out that the article did in fact support his claim, you should have realized your mistake in #2, probably apologized for saying he hadn't read the article, pointed out that the article is apparently using a completely idiotic definition of "institutional investor", and pointed out that under a more reasonable definition of "instututional investor" it is at most around 40% of units (and could be much lower...40% comes from assuming that of the 11 categories they give all of those that are likely to have some institutional investors are all institutional investors).
And yes, I should have used the quote about units in responding to the claim about units, think I was focused on their original claim of 74% of units which was the property number so used the property number. FWIW, I did point out the idiotic definition of institutional investor (ie. including trustees) in another comment.
They fail to give the percentage of homes on the market they've been purchasing. In my market, it was more than 25% of all homes for sale. So let's explain away how removing a quarter of available inventory doesn't affect prices...
They are simultaneously responsible for bidding up the price of homes while paying far below the average price for a home in pretty much every state they are present in.
Texas is effectively one of the only markets with a substantial proportion of new buyers being institutional investors and this is largely due to the number of dilapidated homes in the area.
Housing should be consumption, not an investment, but the perpetual-ownership structure of property rights combined with low property taxes turns them into an investment. But not a "consume less today, produce more tomorrow, everyone wins" investment, it's the "rich people get paid for being rich" type of investment. Yes, many/most of those people are less rich than a corporation, but the problem is exactly the same: deadweight loss in the economy.
Renting is good - and requires the type of economic activity you would want banned.
> Housing should be consumption, not an investment,
Housing should be subject to market forces so housing developers can get signals about price. If people anticipate demand for homes is going to increase and start buying homes in anticipation of that (speculating), if we didn't have our stupid zoning laws, homebuilders would be able to build more homes and resolve the demand imbalance before it happened. This is a good thing. The problem is our stupid zoning laws, NIMBYism, etc.
> deadweight loss in the economy.
...no
It would be better if the people renting it and living there were the owner.
EDIT: nice edit. At least you acknowledge boomer zoning as problematic. But you blame the left. Lol. I seem to recall your guy repealing a bunch of density-promoting legislation and bragging about "saving your housing values" on TV. Someone is in denial here!
"Corpos" are filling in the gap because a ridiculously sticky real estate market means that there are a ton of places that could easily bear more renters. These corporations are typically paying far below the average for homes in whatever state they are buying in [0] (somehow paradoxically this becomes bidding home prices up) and typically allow more renters to enter the market rather than being priced out.
[0]: https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/the-beginning-of-the-...
https://www.keranews.org/business-economy/2022-06-14/investo...
Also, there have been other articles I read during the pandemic (the topic was how long eviction moratoriums were killing small landlords while corporate landlords could weather it) that small, individual landlords do a much better job at renting out housing more affordably, being more willing to work with renters when they are behind on their payments, etc.
Regardless, these investors are paying way below the typical average for new homes in Texas, but somehow responsible for the affordability crisis?
I never understood that attitude. I always took leases as a two-way street. That is, I'm free to leave and go somewhere else at the end of my lease, but the owner is also free to not rent to me at the end of my lease (with appropriate notice). It seems weird to me to have the expectation that if I sign, say, a 1-year lease that means I should have the right to renew that lease in perpetuity.
Use it or lose it I say. You wanna invest? That's what the S&P and index funds are for. Go thusly
I think this covers flat out most rental properties in California as well.
So the answer: California
I agree that this has an absolutely massive chilling effect on leasing & building, given that, reasoning from the past, any new development is almost certain to be subject to rent control within 20 years at most. I've never lived in a state nuts enough to have state-wide rent control before, it's interesting.
Things get interesting when owners become a minority of the electorate.
Where do you draw the line/define at corporate ownership?
I don't agree it is an apriori bad or a cause of the housing crisis - in many markets these are the only people fixing up dilapidated homes and the only people putting rentals on the market - both of which are valuable services.
(You can trivially make the ban pierce any ownership structures)
That's not a luxury we plebes have when buying and selling homes. If the market happens to have crashed just before we have to move, for whatever reason, we have to take the loss, no matter how much it hurts.
So these lovely people (I'm sure) just lock up vast amounts of real estate at unrealistically inflated prices, hurting the entire system, purely so that they don't have to record a loss.
A person might not be able to lower prices because they owe more than the house will sell for. I can't imagine that is broadly the case in this market, unless the house was just bought.
A corporation is even less likely to lower prices if they own lots of properties. If they lower the price of one, their loss may be multiplied by the number of comparable holdings.
I imagine that it might affect borrowing for highly leveraged real estate investors. If you are securing loans on asset values and they drop in perceived value, lenders might get nervous and call loans in.
However, there are levels of debt-to-income that prevent the borrower from getting that time (insolvency exists).
I am hoping policy-makers have a more sophisticated approach than 'money printers go brrr'. Economies like price stability. Deflation and inflation can be destructive in the extreme.
The properties are valued based on the advertised rental rates and if property values fall, they can have significant down stream effects on financing like banks requiring the property owner to put up more collateral next time they need a loan, whether it's to build more housing somewhere else or pay for maintenance that has large upfront costs.
Because if you bought an over-inflated peak-market house you're stuck with that mortgage rate.
There's people paying $1,500 - $2,000 monthly on mortgages for average homes. To rent it out, it's not sufficient (for a variety of reasons) to simply collect the mortgage payment, meaning you have to charge even more to stay afloat.
If the market cools, and people no longer are willing to pay $2,5000 a month in rent on average homes, then the home owner is in a pickle... try to re-fi, if possible, offload the home, or ride the storm out (if financially feasible).
Anything to quote here for this? I'm inclined to believe you are probably right, but an awful lot of real estate has changed hands in the past 5ish years... all of which is hugely inflated above actual property values in a normal market.
Lots of people with FOMO bought into houses way above their weight, and thought the rental market was a "game" anyone can play.
1) Actively looking for that right renter willing to pay a premium for a particular property/part of town.
2) There's probably tax benefits to the lost income and mortgage expenses while looking for a renter.
You mean if you own a massive complex, which is the vast minority of housing - and also not what was mostly accused of being bought up by individuals or firms for speculation.
If you're talking smaller units, landlords are effectively price takers and it is pretty much never profitable to keep empty and price up everything else unless you are anticipating immediate increase in prices.
None of this is a major driver of housing prices either way.
Basic economics on how prices work? The fact that obviously everybody is a price-taker in most home markets?
Your theory is for some sort of massive coordinated action that would reap massive profits to anybody for defecting from. It's game-theoretically impossible but I need to provide the evidence? There are some landlord pricing tools that should absolutely be subject to anti-trust enforcement, but this is again: an extremely small current in modern rental/housing markets.
Build more housing.
Politician: "...but I won't do that."
Worse is how in New York a ton of stores are left empty to lower the tax burden on the owner of the building, or to drive up prices more.
All that combined with automated landlord pricing tools that effectively make a nationwide collaboration between landlords who'd previously never talk to eachother.
But we've made it incredibly difficult in many, perhaps most areas to build substantial new housing, so we don't get housing explosions even in areas with incredible demand. You end up with just a trickle.
"We should build more houses"
Proposals for for new development.
"... not here."
Move the decisionmaking authority for zoning to the metro or state level where this sort of local regulatory capture is harder. Get more new housing spread everywhere, rather than concentrated in the few spots that are okay with it (or are too politically weak to stop it).
The current setup is kind of a prisoner's dilemma. Ideally everyone would approve housing next to them and that would be the impact almost everywhere would be small, since new construction would be spread out, and housing prices would go down a lot. But if you choose to opt out of new housing, well, then you get to deal with zero new construction, which for many people is an improvement. But then if everyone does that, hardly any new housing.
That's the problem.
If technology is so advanced and if solar panels are getting cheaper, why aren't we building new cities in the desert? (Or, why aren't we bringing new techs to small towns that already exist?)
If everyone is so tired of planned obsolescence and not owning their devices, why aren't we making new industries based on sustainable, repairable, open source phones?
There could be whole new towns running an economy on producing sustainable hardwares and then selling the repair parts. It wouldn't be a lot of money. But if everything we use is repairable and sustainable, we wouldn't need a lot of money.
Maybe I am just silly to hope for such a future?
And if you are starting out by asking people to accept a poorer lifestyle because it will be sustainable and repairable, you are setting yourself up to lose.
I don't even agree that these are choices we necessarily have to make - I think we are getting closer and closer to sustainable growth, not merely subsistence.
If you want growth, have at it. When my phone completely breaks, I would love to get a better hardware with more features.
> Maybe I am just silly to hope for such a future?
Not silly- that's the future we need
Moreso, the opportunities exist in the coasts as that's where the inertia of import/export of both goods and humans are.
And if people would hope for that then they would be willing to improve existing small towns too.
I don't like this trend that we all move to major cities and compete for scraps of lands and housing.
Why would we build cities in the desert? It's a lot easier to generate power in the desert and transport it to other places, than it is to supply cities in the desert with water, and increased energy costs due to having to run A/Cs 24-7-365.
If it's a question of land, there's plenty of land in places with water and better climate.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37204037
If so, how? Did you use a real estate agent? Mortgage rates are the highest in more Than 20 Years[1]. Did you put more than 20% down? Or did you pay cash for a foreclosure, auction, fixer-upper or wholesale home? Are there any sites / apps / services you would recommend for finding a home?
For context, California housing affordability is at its lowest level in nearly 16 years where a minimum annual income of $208,000 was needed to make monthly payments of $5,200[2]
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37171849
[2] https://www.car.org/en/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2023...
Rent control doesn’t exist to make housing affordable in general, or in the long run; it exists to prevent existing residents from being priced out of their existing residence, particularly against localized (in time and/or space) market movements.
It is intended to (or, at lrast, it is not an unknown cost when it is adopted) to make housing more expensive for others (new market entrants, and, when rent control is targeted by age, income, or other conditions, those existing residents not eligible) to provide that benefit.
Absent general new supply restrictions which are the actual problem, it is a redistributive that makes an area brcoming attractive to new and richer populations less destructive to existing and more econonically precarious communities. If there are problematic general new supply restrictions it magnifies the effect, but the solution is to deal with the new supply restrictions.
It is intended to make the earth warmer for others (future Earth entrants).
It is redistributive in that it heats the earth for future, richer, more technologically advanced populations that will be more equipped to handle the heat and runaway warming, while allowing more wealth accumulation for the less technologically advanced (and thus more deserving) current human society.
yes, in very much the same way as climate - destroying what exists (affordable housing) in order to benefit incumbents is bad politics, bad policy, and bad ethically.
nevermind that, looking at the poll, most indicate that rent controlled apartments fall into the hands of the rich anyways - who then are protected from poorer renting populations moving in. See: New York City.
This is politically impossible to say because it usually amounts to pricing out old people from places that could use an apartment building.
The main thing requires zoning reform, agreed - but higher land taxes would absolutely help.
How can they be expected to afford a house? The same way they were in the past. A house is a plot of land with some sticks bundled up to create a shelter, with some added amenities like a toilet and an air conditioner. There's no reason that something like that should cost what it does. There's also no reason that a bunch of wood exposed to moisture and termites should appreciate in value over time or be viewed as an asset. Yet here we are.
It isn’t that real estate can’t be an investment, but we should reward those who invest their human capital as well.
Landlords and market investors might balk, but they are going to hell anyway.
Forcibly taking something from somebody just because somebody else wants it is rather totalitarian.
> Alice has to pay Bob one third of her income, or else he'll call on on armed men to throw her out of her home.
"Not totalitarian"
> Bob isn't allowed to do that anymore.
"Totalitarian"
More apartments only makes lack of home ownership worse. You're always paying someone else for something you will never own.
Rent payments go down a black hole. Mortgage payments at least result in an actual asset, and eventually end.
These zoning restrictions would need to be rewritten first, and incentives given to developers to create high-volume, inexpensive housing. With restrictions preventing them from selling to built-to-rent companies.
But zoning restrictions are incredibly difficult to rewrite. A woman from a county in GA is having to sue the county to try to adjust their zoning restrictions and the counties constitution states that zoning can only be used to protect the health of the citizens. And their restrictions banning off-site built homes or small homes does nothing to protect health since they're built to the same standards as larger site-built homes.
I really want to know how they got written in the first place. It seems clear that somehow, zoning regulations is one of the biggest issues we've got. But everyone has these onerous zoning regulations that make life worse... where did they come from?!
As redlining and segregation had a lot of old white people shaking in their boots complaining about property values, old white people who worked for local government (who were also largely landowners) began implementing zoning regulations that effectively banned any sort of housing being built that was affordable to many citizens. Such as apartment complexes, townhomes, quadplexes, smaller homes, etc.
In today's world, we're now dealing with the continued effects. Wealthier areas of town that do not allow ANY multifamily house. Less wealthier areas of town that do not allow homes to be built off-site, or to have under a certain square footage, effectively ensuring homes there are more expensive than they should be. And then the poorer areas of town only allowing multifamily housing right next to industrial/commercial zoning areas. Effectively preventing anyone (outside of property investors) from affording to own a multifamily property, let alone even be able to legally build a single-family home.
As the separations between middle class and lower class begin to blur, it makes the situation worse for everyone, outside of the financially well-off who either made it big with a business, or have owned property for decades at that point.
Zoning was redefined from a health and safety perspective, to a legal, local government tool to artificially inflate property values by unfairly limiting the types of homes that could be built, and putting the poorer workers and "undesirables" in unsafe communities full of industrial factories, low-wage jobs, and no vertical movement for the community to grow.
The process in the Soviet Union might not have involved financial capital, but it involved human capital (i.e. if your profession was not "respectable", or if you were ever convicted of a criminal act, you might not receive permission to get an apartment (or even a room) in a top tier city like St. Petersburg or Moscow)
Industrialization led to many dirty cities especially before sanitation technology was deployed. Restrictions on more than e.g. 8 unrelated people per house, minimum window requirements, separating the meat packing district from a pure residential neighborhood were in response to tenements which were deathtraps in fires.
> Rent payments go down a black hole. Mortgage payments at least result in an actual asset, and eventually end.
Generally making rent payments and investing the money you would have spent on the house in the stock market will get you further ahead in terms of ownership stake than just making payments on a mortgage. The only reason this is not true is due to massive, massive government subsidies of owners at the expense of renters (ie. Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac acting as lenders of last resort for nonsense mortgages that no private bank would have ever granted without this support).
This cannot be accurate.
1: rentals are often as much or more expensive than a mortgage (the problem is the down payment)
2: rental prices *constantly* go up, despite nothing changing in the house or apartment you're living in. Mortgages stay flat (in the US), so raises, etc, aren't eaten up by a cost of housing that exceeds the local inflation rate.
Not now, no.
You have to compare the money you would spent on the down payment (and excess from mortgage) to the returns you would get from investing that money directly.
And as I said, the only reason mortgages are so cheap is due to the massive, massive amount of government subsidy in favor of owners - if owners were remotely exposed to the true cost of borrowing, it would not even be particularly close.
Not that there isn't a stigma against renting, but, does one really want to be renting during retirement when most people's income is fixed? And yes, there are ongoing costs to ownership, but you can possibly plan for those better. You can't really plan for your land lord to raise rent by 50% because the media tells him the market is hot and he can do that.
So if you feel a need to buy a home, you should be able to do it. But the government should not be propping up unsustainable markets at considerable risk to the rest of us to let you do so - if you can afford a home and get a bank to lend you the money and assume the risk, you should be able to. But I am not sacrificing my ability to afford quality housing to give you government-guaranteed mortgages, it's a massive moral hazard.
If you need the fixed-income security, pay for it.
Not sure if that is true with current rates - and also is due to government policy propping up cheap money to homebuyers.
As I've said, no bank in their right mind would give out the mortgages they are right now if they didn't know they could turn around and sell it straight to Fannie & Freddie
A mortgage is an extremely leveraged investment at preferable rates. Your statement is extremely sensitive to the change in home prices (generally rising), the change in stock prices, and interest rates.
My home has been making an unrealized 11% per year (disgusting) on a much larger pool of money than I actually had to invest. The economics of renting and investing the leftovers are deeply unfavorable.
Some European countries have things like the imputed rent tax (basically taxing homeowners as if they were renting their own home). This goes a long way towards balancing the scales between homeowners & renters.
That said, I mentioned stigma, I didn't say anything about culture - and I'm not sure why it is at all relevant to my point.
What money? Renting isn’t cheaper than owning. You will almost definitely make more money on remodeling a home than buying stocks.
The flexibility of renting is a real and important phenomenon: people's lives change unexpectedly sometimes.
Since then, interest rates have only increased, and in my location, real estate is at a record high. It's been increasing pretty much since the 90s without a break. I don't believe a bubble will break any time soon. Also, materials/energy is getting more expensive, there's a lack of labour, so even building/renovating places isn't an option.
This is exactly the intention of higher rates - cooling off the housing market.
</s>
Housing in the US is freakingly cheap. You can buy a house that would be an envy of half of the people in Europe for $200k. The problem is, it won't be anywhere near "trendy" locations.
And that's the _real_ problem. People are forced by market forces to move into ever denser cities.
And increasing density ALWAYS results in cost increases. It's like the rocket equation: dense cities need infrastructure to support infrastructure to support infrastructure.
And no, none of the inane solutions: "let's legalize SROs^W microapartments!" or "let's just force each homeowner to take a family to live with them!" will do anything with that. They'll just increase the overall misery.
You are being very reductive and writing out entire categories of reasons why housing is unsustainably expensive. In your next two sentences:
> People are forced by market forces to move into ever denser cities.
Lots of us already live in cities but our neighbors and elected leaders have let this get massively out of hand. I have lived in Seattle my entire life, as has my wife, and we raised kids here. One of them has had to move away because they can't afford housing here and the other has moved to Marysville just to be able to afford something.
My wife and I are both getting older and didn't want to climb stairs to be able to get to our front door (Seattle, as you may recall, has a lot of hills). Even though we had nominal equity in our house, the red hot housing market here means that equity didn't go as far because we wanted to stay in the same region to be near family and friends we've had our entire life.
Never mind that a lot of those "trendy" areas are where jobs and cultural activities are. Housing is "cheap" in the US if you follow the "just live in the middle of nowhere" model, which of course lots of people don't want or are unable to do.
And why is that bad?
> Lots of us already live in cities but our neighbors and elected leaders have let this get massively out of hand. I have lived in Seattle my entire life, as has my wife, and we raised kids here. One of them has had to move away because they can't afford housing here and the other has moved to Marysville just to be able to afford something.
A quick check. Can you tell me how many new units Seattle has created within the last ~12 years in percentage of the total?
> Never mind that a lot of those "trendy" areas are where jobs and cultural activities are.
"Cultural activities" that are specific for large cities for the vast majority of people consist of going to a game maybe once a year.
Density is not a problem, it is a solution. Denser means more developed, more environmentally friendly, more productive, higher earning, more efficient. Increasing density increases wealth (pay a little, gain a lot). It almost always increases wealth faster than costs.
The issue right now is that we are not allowed to build dense cities. We are not allowed to build single bedroom apartments where young, single workers need them to live next to new, productive jobs. We can only build single family homes and even then only at the periphery of huge cities. Massive swathes of downtowns are parking, highways, and single family houses -- when those should have been demolished and replaced with transit and dense towers long ago.
The market is screaming for the opportunity to build us dense housing. All we have to do is grant it.
Quite simply, it's not. Densification leads to cost increases. And "more developed"? LOL.
I have analyzed the database of all real estate sales in the US for the last 25 years, and I have not found a single example where densification of a city led to lower prices. Not a single one.
Even so-called "urbanists" admit that: https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/change-my-mind-density...
> The issue right now is that we are not allowed to build dense cities > The market is screaming for the opportunity to build us dense housing. All we have to do is grant it.
Sorry. But you're spewing a bunch of horseshit.
Some forms of densification are allowed pretty much everywhere. It has not led to lower prices even once.
This is a good thing.
Affordability is not cost. The problem that we have now is that supply of housing is artificially constrained by bad policy, which allows some groups to capture the surplus. It is broadly not a coincidence that the groups that capture the surplus are the very same that set policy.
It seems to me that "some forms of densification are allowed pretty much everywhere" is doing a lot of work for you. Can you elaborate? How easy is it to build an apartment building "anywhere?" [1] is an example of what I mean, but you can google "housing supply shortage USA" if you want general statistics. The conclusion is pretty much unanimous: it is immensely difficult to build anything, anywhere, which has caused a massive shortage in the supply of housing. Again: density, solution.
If we allow buildings to be built, a developer will gladly come in and build buildings. Someone building a house for someone else to live in is, in general, a very good thing. Everyone participating in this conversation lives in a house that someone else built for them and made a profit in so doing, and it's a good thing, because that allows us to work and create value.
[1] https://twitter.com/cafedujord/status/1692713611683066073
Dense cities are more desirable to live in, but that induces more demand, so even though the cities generate more wealth, the equilibrium between supply and demand still skews to people wanting to pay more of their income to bid on a limited supply of housing (even if that supply is larger, more demand is simply induced). We should allow more building (and denser building) in popular cities, but we shouldn’t do that blindly thinking that it would somehow make housing more affordable.
You can google housing supply shortage for basically any country with a good economy, not just the USA. The only way to get around it is somehow suppress demand (low paying jobs in Berlin 20 years ago, or a declining population in Japan).
I don't quite follow that—I'm not an urban planner, but I thought LA was famous for being very spread out, at least compared to NYC.
You want to discuss home affordability, WFH has to be a pillar of that discussion. We came within an inch of being able to populate a substantially larger previously non-commutable area of the US, and then it was pulled back.
It’s not been my experience that the lion share of Europeans envy Americans and certainly not Americans who live outside big cities. And I work with Europeans every day in my job.