As someone who often plays near this limit, I can tell you that
> then transparently released to be used
is doing most of the heavy lifting here, because in practice it often is NOT transparently released.
To give a concrete example, imagine you have 500GB free, which is enough for you to unpack and analyze a single simulation output at a time. You unpack the first one, do your analysis, and then rm that folder and its archive to make space to pull down the next batch of results.
However, you then will find that for some reason, despite Finder saying that it has plenty of space, that trying to unpack another 500GB result will fail with an "out of space" error, unless you wait several hours/days for unnamed "background processes" to garbage collect that drive space. What that looks like in practice is that Finder will start to report superlinear space usage (e.g. for every 10GB you unpack, >>10GB of usage will be reported) until the operation fails.
Thus, I find that df actually is much better about predicting the actual expected behavior of the system than Finder itself. If there were a way to manually trigger an immediate cleanup via the command line, that would also be fine. As it is, I just work off of external drives w/o APFS, which avoids the issue entirely.