These analysis are highly knowledgable while being consistently wrong. It's like a self meme factory. If you only analyse one side you are bound to end up in a corner where your analysis doesn't pan out against reality. It's all wishful thinking.
In this case the author seems to hope Russian missiles continue to decline both in quantity and quality, but concludes that that is unlikely to happen. I don't see where the wishful thinking is.
It can be hard to see it
Point it out?
The running out of middles starts a circle which failed to close. Now that it has not happened there is no explanation. How did the initial information come into play? There are many examples like this.