I make around $140k and people who make less always tell me how lucky I am and so forth… in a way yes, but I am much closer financially to the average American than to Elon Musk or Bill Gates. I don’t live paycheck to paycheck, but I certainly couldn’t go more than a few months without working. My savings rate is about 50% and I max out my 401k each year but if the stock market doesn’t continue the ~8% average annual return for the next 30 years, I likely won’t be able to retire at 65, even if social security is still paying out. I max out my retirement contributions, and put it all in low-expense-ratio index funds, *but retirement is not guaranteed.*
> savings rate is about 50%
> couldn't go more than a few months without working
How are you calculating your runway? Naively I'd think a 50% savings rate means 1 month off for every month worked.
That's definitely fair to say for the short-term. I should say it's 50% as far as budgeted expenses go. Unplanned things like home repairs or medical expenses I don't consider in that "50% savings rate", which may be correct or may not be, I'm not sure. Larger, one-off purchases like a car or house are not included either.
Makes sense. Yeah, not clear how best to track/predict large one-offs. And your original point still stands: without that 8% growth, retirement going to be a lot harder for a lot of us.